The K7RA Solar Update

SEATTLE, WA, Dec 2, 2005--Daily sunspot and solar flux
averages over the past week were down, and the geomagnetic
indices were up. Average daily sunspot numbers were down nearly
15 points to 33.7, and average daily solar flux declined nearly 13
points to 84.2.

Currently sunspot and solar flux numbers are rising due to Sunspot
826, which is growing rapidly and moving toward the center of the
solar disk, giving it maximum influence here on Earth. It also could
be a source of flares, which would not be good for the ARRL 160
Meter CW Contest this weekend. Predicted solar flux for Friday
through Monday, December 2-5, is 100, 105, 105 and 105.
Predicted planetary A index for the same days is 15, 12, 8 and 5,
although those numbers will be higher if Sunspot 826 becomes
especially active.

The November 18 edition of the "Solar Update" included a report
describing how WB5AGZ in Stillwater, Oklahoma, heard a 10-meter
repeater from New York (KQ2H) during the middle of the night and
into early morning. We now have another similar report, also from
Oklahoma. Stan Stephens, WA6SKD, of Midwest City, wrote in
with this narrative:

"I would like to confirm Martin McCormick's (WB5AGZ) observations from
Stillwater,
Oklahoma on late night 10 meter FM signals from KQ2H on 29.620 MHz. I
monitor
the 10 meter FM band always looking for a contact or two, since I am a
night owl. I
have observed KQ2H many times after midnight, almost too numerous to
keep track.
These openings have not just been this month, but also spring and
summer. What I
hear does sound like a link with stations having no idea they are being
copied 59+ in
Oklahoma.

"Now for the good part. These late night signals are not limited to
KQ2H. I have also
noted signals from the southern US and Midwest with an occasional
California 10
meter FM repeater. Also, like Martin, I notice no other signals on 10,
12, 15 and 18
meters. Trying to raise these repeaters can be difficult on my Azden PCS
2800 (10 W
and Ringo), but when I do get a response from the machine, no one is
home!

"In general I find the 10 meter FM band is open a lot more than it is
given credit for. I
am not sure what conditions allow this, but no complaints on this end.
It is cool
making a 10 meter FM contact with a distant station at 0300. I have been
on 10 FM
with my Azden for 23 years; my log books really show varied conditions
on 10 meter
FM. Although some years have been better than others, this includes
sunspot cycle
minimums.

This is very interesting, and shows us that 10 meters may be open more often
than we think,
even in the middle of the night when there shouldn't be any conventional
propagation.
Remember that the ARRL 10 Meter Contest is coming up December 9-11.

Now that November is behind us, let's look at the monthly averages for solar
flux and sunspot
numbers.

The average daily sunspot numbers for the months September 2004 through November
2005
were 50, 77.9, 70.5, 34.7, 52, 45.4, 41, 41.5, 65.4, 59.8, 68.7, 65.6, 39.2, 13
and 32.2. Average
daily solar flux for the same months was 103, 106, 113.7, 95, 102.3, 97.2, 89.9,
85.9, 99.5, 93.7,
96.5, 92.4, 91.9, 76.6 and 86.3.

It looks like activity bounced back a bit in November, but look for the general
trend to be down
until the sunspot minimum, which should be about a year from now--possibly a bit
later.

For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers
used in this
bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service Propagation page. An archive
of past
bulletins is on the ARRL Web site.

Sunspot numbers for November 24 through 30 were 30, 39, 30, 26, 27, 27 and 57,
with a mean
of 33.7. The 10.7 cm flux was 86.6, 79.9, 80.8, 80.7, 81.9, 84.7, and 94.7, with
a mean of 84.2.
Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 10, 5, 2, 9, 5 and 10 with a mean of 7.1.
Estimated
mid-latitude A indices were 6, 8, 3, 2, 6, 6 and 9, with a mean of 5.7.
(K7RA, ARRL)

dxAce
Michigan
USA