RadioBanter - View Single Post - So who won the "when does NoCode happen" pool?

Alun L. Palmer · December 29th 06, 06:33 PM posted to rec.radio.amateur.policy

wrote in
ups.com:

Bill Sohl wrote:
wrote in message
ups.com...
Robert Casey wrote:
Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples'
predictions on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So
who came closest? I know that I didn't.

Hello Robert,

SNIP
Here's an update on the "when will FCC drop Element 1?" pool.
This means the effective date of the FCC action that completely
eliminates Morse Code testing for any class of amateur radio
license in the USA.

Note how almost all the predicted dates and all of the *second*
predicted dates have already passed:

WA2SI: September 13, 2003 (first prediction)
KF6TPT: September 29, 2003
KC8EPO: December 31, 2003
K2UNK: January 1, 2004 (first prediction)
K2ASP: March 15, 2004
AA2QA: April 1, 2004
N2EY: April 15, 2004
N3KIP: May 1, 2004 (first prediction)
KC8PMX: July 1, 2004
WA2ISE: August 1, 2004
K3LT: September 15, 2004
WK3C: December 30, 2004
N4PGW: May 22, 2005
N8UZE: July 1, 2005 (first prediction)
N3KIP: December 31, 2005 (second prediction)
N8UZE: January 31, 2006 (second prediction)
N2EY: March 1, 2006 (second prediction)
KB9RQZ: April 1, 2006
K2UNK: July 1, 2006 (second prediction)
AB2RC: July 1, 2007
KB3EIA: July 5, 2007
W5TIT: June 1, 2008
WA2SI: Complete elimination not within the foreseeable future
(second prediction)

Right now it looks like AB2RC is the winner, with K2UNK a close
second.

Even though K2UNK's date is closer to the announcement date, the
rule states "effective date of the FCC action that completely
eliminates Morse Code testing for any class of amateur radio license
in the USA". Which cannot be any earlier than January 19, 2007, and
will probably be late February or even early March 2007 if the 60
day rule is in effect.

Hi Jim and the few others that can still post a mmessage in RRAP that
indicates some common sense, logic and respect.

Hello Bill!

Hey, a close second... :-)

Very close - but each day it gets closer to AB2RC's date.

Who'd a thought the FCC would footdrag as long as they did.

Not me! Heck, my *second* predicted date was almost a year ago, and my
first prediction almost three years ago.

When the treaty changed way back in 2003, the announcement on the ARRL
website said the process could take as long as two years. I thought
that was way too long. Turns out it's already more than 3-1/2 years!

Maybe I should start a new pool, in which people get to predict the
growth or decline in the number of US amateurs by a certain date
after the new rules.....

How about a pool on when the inmates running the RRAP asylum will
finalkly wear themselves out. I can't believe these characters have
the time which they devooote to their infintile and sophmoric
postings.

The moderated version of rrap will come on line soon. That will be a
different game entirely.

I suspect that, given the recent "omnibus" R&O and the code test R&O,
we will not see more changes to Part 97 for a long time.

Cheers to the goodguys like Jim who have stuck it out.

Thanks, but my time here is limited. I'll continue to post the ARS
license numbers and make some occasional comments, but the noise level
is so high that I read perhaps 2% of what is posted to rrap.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all.

Agreed. And a better 2007!

73 de Jim, N2EY

I think after the dust settles the big issue will be grandfathering Novices
and Advanceds to the next class up, i.e. tidying up the licence scheme. and
of course I still want more phone on 40, 20 and 15, but it will be a while
before the FCC will get back to these things. Maybe petitions on these
things would be dismissed if they were filed right now, but later on they
might succeed.

IOW, there are other outstanding issues, but IMHO things are moving in the
right direction.

I do wonder why this took 3 1/2 years. Maybe the large number of petitions
(18) and comments (zillions) had something to do with it. Maybe even Riley
had something to do with delaying it? Does he have that much influence?

73 de N3KIP