wrote in
ups.com:


Bill Sohl wrote:
wrote in message
ups.com...
Robert Casey wrote:
Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples'
predictions on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So
who came closest? I know that I didn't.

Hello Robert,

SNIP
Here's an update on the "when will FCC drop Element 1?" pool.
This means the effective date of the FCC action that completely
eliminates Morse Code testing for any class of amateur radio
license in the USA.

Note how almost all the predicted dates and all of the *second*
predicted dates have already passed:

WA2SI: September 13, 2003 (first prediction)
KF6TPT: September 29, 2003
KC8EPO: December 31, 2003
K2UNK: January 1, 2004 (first prediction)
K2ASP: March 15, 2004
AA2QA: April 1, 2004
N2EY: April 15, 2004
N3KIP: May 1, 2004 (first prediction)
KC8PMX: July 1, 2004
WA2ISE: August 1, 2004
K3LT: September 15, 2004
WK3C: December 30, 2004
N4PGW: May 22, 2005
N8UZE: July 1, 2005 (first prediction)
N3KIP: December 31, 2005 (second prediction)
N8UZE: January 31, 2006 (second prediction)
N2EY: March 1, 2006 (second prediction)
KB9RQZ: April 1, 2006
K2UNK: July 1, 2006 (second prediction)
AB2RC: July 1, 2007
KB3EIA: July 5, 2007
W5TIT: June 1, 2008
WA2SI: Complete elimination not within the foreseeable future
(second prediction)

Right now it looks like AB2RC is the winner, with K2UNK a close
second.

Even though K2UNK's date is closer to the announcement date, the
rule states "effective date of the FCC action that completely
eliminates Morse Code testing for any class of amateur radio license
in the USA". Which cannot be any earlier than January 19, 2007, and
will probably be late February or even early March 2007 if the 60
day rule is in effect.

Hi Jim and the few others that can still post a mmessage in RRAP that
indicates some common sense, logic and respect.

Hello Bill!

Hey, a close second... :-)

Very close - but each day it gets closer to AB2RC's date.

Who'd a thought the FCC would footdrag as long as they did.

Not me! Heck, my *second* predicted date was almost a year ago, and my
first prediction almost three years ago.

When the treaty changed way back in 2003, the announcement on the ARRL
website said the process could take as long as two years. I thought
that was way too long. Turns out it's already more than 3-1/2 years!

Maybe I should start a new pool, in which people get to predict the
growth or decline in the number of US amateurs by a certain date
after the new rules.....

How about a pool on when the inmates running the RRAP asylum will
finalkly wear themselves out. I can't believe these characters have
the time which they devooote to their infintile and sophmoric
postings.

The moderated version of rrap will come on line soon. That will be a
different game entirely.

I suspect that, given the recent "omnibus" R&O and the code test R&O,
we will not see more changes to Part 97 for a long time.

Cheers to the goodguys like Jim who have stuck it out.

Thanks, but my time here is limited. I'll continue to post the ARS
license numbers and make some occasional comments, but the noise level
is so high that I read perhaps 2% of what is posted to rrap.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all.

Agreed. And a better 2007!

73 de Jim, N2EY



I think after the dust settles the big issue will be grandfathering Novices
and Advanceds to the next class up, i.e. tidying up the licence scheme. and
of course I still want more phone on 40, 20 and 15, but it will be a while
before the FCC will get back to these things. Maybe petitions on these
things would be dismissed if they were filed right now, but later on they
might succeed.

IOW, there are other outstanding issues, but IMHO things are moving in the
right direction.

I do wonder why this took 3 1/2 years. Maybe the large number of petitions
(18) and comments (zillions) had something to do with it. Maybe even Riley
had something to do with delaying it? Does he have that much influence?

73 de N3KIP

"Alun L. Palmer" wrote in message
. ..
wrote in
ups.com:


I think after the dust settles the big issue will be grandfathering
Novices
and Advanceds to the next class up, i.e. tidying up the licence scheme.
and
of course I still want more phone on 40, 20 and 15, but it will be a while
before the FCC will get back to these things. Maybe petitions on these
things would be dismissed if they were filed right now, but later on they
might succeed.

As adamant as the FCC has been on this, it's very doubtful that
grandfathering will ever happen. They've made it plain that they consider
it reasonable for people to pass the written tests for the upgrades. In
addition, at the rate the Novice licenses are decreasing they will be all
but gone in less than 10 years anyway.

You may be somewhat right on the phone issue. Actually though I would
expect to see them try the band plan approach (ala Europe) rather than the
regulatory approach. Bad thing here is that it will be a major issue on a
contest day as the contest ops will expand to fill the whole band instead of
just part of the band for any given contest as they do now.


IOW, there are other outstanding issues, but IMHO things are moving in the
right direction.

I do wonder why this took 3 1/2 years. Maybe the large number of petitions
(18) and comments (zillions) had something to do with it. Maybe even Riley
had something to do with delaying it? Does he have that much influence?

73 de N3KIP

I'm firmly convinced that the number of petitions was a major hang-up on
processing this. Each petition had a slightly different spin and each had a
significant number of comments. The FCC staff had to digest all this and
come to an agreement on just what approach would be taken.

Dee, N8UZE

"Dee Flint" wrote in message
. ..

"Alun L. Palmer" wrote in message
. ..
wrote in
ups.com:


I think after the dust settles the big issue will be grandfathering
Novices
and Advanceds to the next class up, i.e. tidying up the licence scheme.
and
of course I still want more phone on 40, 20 and 15, but it will be a
while
before the FCC will get back to these things. Maybe petitions on these
things would be dismissed if they were filed right now, but later on they
might succeed.

As adamant as the FCC has been on this, it's very doubtful that
grandfathering will ever happen. They've made it plain that they consider
it reasonable for people to pass the written tests for the upgrades. In
addition, at the rate the Novice licenses are decreasing they will be all
but gone in less than 10 years anyway.

I tend to agree with that prediction since Novice already had code credit
and the only thing between the Novice and Tech has been the written
test itself. If a Novice hasn't upgraded in the last 5 or 10 years,
odds are they have dropped from the ham radio ranks already.

(SNIP)
I do wonder why this took 3 1/2 years. Maybe the large number of
petitions
(18) and comments (zillions) had something to do with it. Maybe even
Riley
had something to do with delaying it? Does he have that much influence?

73 de N3KIP

I'm firmly convinced that the number of petitions was a major hang-up on
processing this. Each petition had a slightly different spin and each had
a significant number of comments. The FCC staff had to digest all this
and come to an agreement on just what approach would be taken.
Dee, N8UZE

I suspect it is just "low priority" within the FCC's scope of
authority.

Cheers and Happy New Year to all,

My wish for the New Year is that this forum once again become a
place for rational thought and discussion. The personal attacks
and other slimeball commentary by those who know who they are
should end. It is tragic that some people can't abide by simply
repecting the medium and using it in a positive manner.

OK, soapbox mode off :-)

Bill K2UNK

"Bill Sohl" wrote in message
news

"Dee Flint" wrote in message
. ..

"Alun L. Palmer" wrote in message
. ..
wrote in
ups.com:

[snip]
73 de N3KIP

I'm firmly convinced that the number of petitions was a major hang-up on
processing this. Each petition had a slightly different spin and each
had a significant number of comments. The FCC staff had to digest all
this and come to an agreement on just what approach would be taken.
Dee, N8UZE

I suspect it is just "low priority" within the FCC's scope of
authority.


Yup, I believe that was also a significant factor. It wouldn't surprise me
if the only reasons they got to it now was because the office was slow and
they wanted to clean up some loose ends before the end of the year.

Cheers and Happy New Year to all,


Thanks and same to you.

My wish for the New Year is that this forum once again become a
place for rational thought and discussion. The personal attacks
and other slimeball commentary by those who know who they are
should end. It is tragic that some people can't abide by simply
repecting the medium and using it in a positive manner.


I hope so too.

OK, soapbox mode off :-)

Bill K2UNK


Dee, N8UZE

Dee Flint wrote:
...
Yup, I believe that was also a significant factor. It wouldn't surprise me
if the only reasons they got to it now was because the office was slow and
they wanted to clean up some loose ends before the end of the year.
...
Dee, N8UZE



Like any bureaucracy, the last thing they will do is move to save their
lives. This is what they did here, in a last move and hoping that it is
not too late, they removed the CW test hoping to save the amateur bands
.... they know how to save their jobs!

JS

"John Smith I" wrote in message
...
Dee Flint wrote:
...
Yup, I believe that was also a significant factor. It wouldn't surprise
me if the only reasons they got to it now was because the office was slow
and they wanted to clean up some loose ends before the end of the year.
...
Dee, N8UZE

Like any bureaucracy, the last thing they will do is move to save their
lives. This is what they did here, in a last move and hoping that it is
not too late, they removed the CW test hoping to save the amateur bands
... they know how to save their jobs!

JS

I doubt the number of amateurs would cause them to worry about their jobs.
They have a lot of areas besides amateur radio under them. And they are not
elected officials so they don't have to worry there either.

Dee, N8UZE

Dee Flint wrote:
...
I doubt the number of amateurs would cause them to worry about their jobs.
They have a lot of areas besides amateur radio under them. And they are not
elected officials so they don't have to worry there either.

Dee, N8UZE

I think you have little respect for "The Straw Which Broke the Camels
Back" or just plain attrition ... at least in this definition of
attrition: " Attrition refers to a method of achieving a reduction in
personnel by not refilling positions that are vacated through
resignation, reassignment, transfer, retirement, or means other than
layoffs."

Regards,
JS

John Smith I wrote:
Dee Flint wrote:
...
Yup, I believe that was also a significant factor. It wouldn't surprise me
if the only reasons they got to it now was because the office was slow and
they wanted to clean up some loose ends before the end of the year.
...
Dee, N8UZE

Like any bureaucracy, the last thing they will do is move to save their
lives. This is what they did here, in a last move and hoping that it is
not too late, they removed the CW test hoping to save the amateur bands
... they know how to save their jobs!

JS

John, I think your thinking is becoming too focussed about the FCC.

Amateur radio is one of the LESSER radio services the FCC must,
by law of Congress, regulate. That same law does NOT empower
them to "boost" (support, encourage) amateur radio in any way,
despite what so many ardent, life-style radio amateurs think.

Think back on FCC 99-412, the R&O establishing "restructuring."
It was issued on 30 December 1999, just about the last document
released in 1999 by the FCC. Since their official end of commentary
on the NPRM for restructuring was 15 January 1999, that left them
nearly a year to decide on the final R&O.

FCC 06-178 only has to be fitted into the publication schedule of
the Federal Register to become effective...it's all set to go except
for the effective date. It's taken roughly a year for the FCC to
decide on that (give or take a few months).

Given much MORE important subjects before the FCC, such as
the recent decision to allow AT&T to buy BellSouth, amateur radio
pales in significance. All one needs to do is check the home page
of the FCC to see their workload on US civil radio regulations...it
isn't small and those regulations on non-amateur communications
subjects affect millions of Americans more than a hobby radio
activity. Amateur radio is lucky to get as quick decisions as with
other radio services at the FCC.

One thing for sure, it didn't seem that NCI was badgering the FCC
to decide...it took NCI about a week to post the news of the pending
FCC 06-178 R&O! No sweat with the ARRL...the League has two
groups in DC to pester the FCC, a Lobbying service and a legal
firm...they can get "advance" notice of things quicker than a non-
dues civilian group...makes them look as if they are "in the know."

One must be patient. eyebrows akimbo

LA

"Bill Sohl" wrote:

I tend to agree with that prediction since Novice already had code credit
and the only thing between the Novice and Tech has been the written
test itself. If a Novice hasn't upgraded in the last 5 or 10 years,
odds are they have dropped from the ham radio ranks already.

I disagree somewhat. There will always be a segment which is 'inactive', but
will keep their license active so they can pick it up again someday when
they want.

After the restructuring of 2000, I wondered why we didn't see a mass-exodus
from the General and the Advanced ranks to Extra. There has been a continual
decrease in the General/Advanced licenses and increase in the Extra class,
but not as much as I would have expected. Without that nasty, 'hard' 20wpm
code test, wouldn't you expect those licensees to flock to Extra?

Perhaps a segment of those licensees are either inactive, or simply happy
with the operating privileges they have and have no need to upgrade? If so,
wouldn't those same reasons apply to some Novices not upgrading?


My wish for the New Year is that this forum once again become a
place for rational thought and discussion. The personal attacks
and other slimeball commentary by those who know who they are
should end.

When you put most of the nitwits in your killfile, the group is surprisingly
quiet and civil

73
KH6HZ

KH6HZ wrote:
...

73
KH6HZ



I put lot in the kill file and rarely read their posts (only if I feel a
great need to pity someone)--such as those spouting filth and perversion.

The nitwits? I just put 'em in the nitwit file in the brain, I still
read 'em. grin

Regards,
JS