John Smith I wrote:
wrote:
...
What do you wonder about?
They are simply the number of licenses in the FCC database.
...
Well, let me give you an example which I am familiar with:
Take the unemployment figures. Here in california, in past decades (pre
1975?), the numbers of unemployed were based on those who were looking
for work, if you registered as being such--you were counted on the
unemployment roles. Today it is much different.
Today, the unemployment roles ONLY list those who are DRAWING
unemployment. Somehow, these figures are even manipulated to keep the
unemployment rate hovering at, or around, 5%, or 1 in 20.
However, if you take into account all who are looking for work AND those
drawing unemployment, that figure becomes closer to 1 in 5.
I came into knowledge of these figures when I was creating software
utilities to monitor these statistics. The avg. guy in the general
public just sees the 5% figure on the news and thinks it is real ...
Of course - what they do is to carefully define what "unemployed" means
so that the numbers aren't too worrisome.
Sounds to me like what is done in CA is to eliminate those who have no
job and have
exhausted their unemployment benefits, those who have no job and have
given up looking,
those who are "underemployed" (say, working part time because it's all
they can find right now)
etc.
There's nothing wrong with defining "unemployed" a certain way *IF* the
definition is clearly
stated so that we know who is included and who isn't.
I am highly suspicious that those amateur statistics may be manipulated
in much the same way--although I have no figures here to the contrary of
what is listed or even why such manipulations would be done ... I just
have a naturally suspicious nature ... been burnt by my gov't one to
many times.
FCC amateur license figures may be checked by anyone who bothers to
download the database and go through it.
I don't see any way for govt. to manipulate those license figures. The
database contains all current licenses and all licenses in the 2 year
grace period.
---
It's clear why someone would want to report a low unemployment rate -
makes the economy, and the current administration, look good. It's also
clear why someone would want to report a high unemployment rate - makes
the economy, and the current administration, look bad.
But why would someone want to manipulate amateur radio license numbers?
Overstating the numbers would make amateur radio look bigger than it
is, while understating them would make amateur radio look smaller than
it is. Who would benefit?
Right now there are about 655,000 current unexpired FCC-issued licenses
held by individuals. Do you think that number is high or low?