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#11
January 3rd 07, 12:33 PM
posted to rec.radio.amateur.policy
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ARS License Numbers
John Smith I wrote:
wrote: ... What do you wonder about? They are simply the number of licenses in the FCC database. ... Well, let me give you an example which I am familiar with: Take the unemployment figures. Here in california, in past decades (pre 1975?), the numbers of unemployed were based on those who were looking for work, if you registered as being such--you were counted on the unemployment roles. Today it is much different. Today, the unemployment roles ONLY list those who are DRAWING unemployment. Somehow, these figures are even manipulated to keep the unemployment rate hovering at, or around, 5%, or 1 in 20. However, if you take into account all who are looking for work AND those drawing unemployment, that figure becomes closer to 1 in 5. I came into knowledge of these figures when I was creating software utilities to monitor these statistics. The avg. guy in the general public just sees the 5% figure on the news and thinks it is real ... Of course - what they do is to carefully define what "unemployed" means so that the numbers aren't too worrisome. Sounds to me like what is done in CA is to eliminate those who have no job and have exhausted their unemployment benefits, those who have no job and have given up looking, those who are "underemployed" (say, working part time because it's all they can find right now) etc. There's nothing wrong with defining "unemployed" a certain way *IF* the definition is clearly stated so that we know who is included and who isn't. I am highly suspicious that those amateur statistics may be manipulated in much the same way--although I have no figures here to the contrary of what is listed or even why such manipulations would be done ... I just have a naturally suspicious nature ... been burnt by my gov't one to many times. FCC amateur license figures may be checked by anyone who bothers to download the database and go through it. I don't see any way for govt. to manipulate those license figures. The database contains all current licenses and all licenses in the 2 year grace period. --- It's clear why someone would want to report a low unemployment rate - makes the economy, and the current administration, look good. It's also clear why someone would want to report a high unemployment rate - makes the economy, and the current administration, look bad. But why would someone want to manipulate amateur radio license numbers? Overstating the numbers would make amateur radio look bigger than it is, while understating them would make amateur radio look smaller than it is. Who would benefit? Right now there are about 655,000 current unexpired FCC-issued licenses held by individuals. Do you think that number is high or low? |
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