Peter,

Your reference is interesting, their story is changing from
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2...cleupdate.htm?
list174385 (fix the wrapped URL).

I have been plotting the percentage of days in a calendar month that were
spotless during this transition.

Certainly, March 2009 isn't encouraging.

The graphs are at http://www.vk1od.net/propagation/solar/spotless.htm .

I wouldn't hazard a guess at when sunspot numbers climb significantly,
though signs are that the transition has already occured, just enduring a
very long sunspot drought... from Canberra where it doesn't rain any more
either!

Owen