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Quietest Sun since 1913
Peter,
Your reference is interesting, their story is changing from http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2...cleupdate.htm? list174385 (fix the wrapped URL). I have been plotting the percentage of days in a calendar month that were spotless during this transition. Certainly, March 2009 isn't encouraging. The graphs are at http://www.vk1od.net/propagation/solar/spotless.htm . I wouldn't hazard a guess at when sunspot numbers climb significantly, though signs are that the transition has already occured, just enduring a very long sunspot drought... from Canberra where it doesn't rain any more either! Owen |
#2
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Quietest Sun since 1913
"Owen Duffy" wrote in message ... Peter, Your reference is interesting, their story is changing from http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2...cleupdate.htm? list174385 (fix the wrapped URL). I have been plotting the percentage of days in a calendar month that were spotless during this transition. Certainly, March 2009 isn't encouraging. The graphs are at http://www.vk1od.net/propagation/solar/spotless.htm . I wouldn't hazard a guess at when sunspot numbers climb significantly, though signs are that the transition has already occured, just enduring a very long sunspot drought... from Canberra where it doesn't rain any more either! Owen |
#3
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Quietest Sun since 1913
"Owen Duffy" wrote in message ... I have been plotting the percentage of days in a calendar month that were spotless during this transition. Certainly, March 2009 isn't encouraging. The graphs are at http://www.vk1od.net/propagation/solar/spotless.htm . Very interesting data, Owen. This is a new way to look at the transition but to my eye a downward trend hasn't emerged yet and that certainly is bad news for 2009. Another idea I had recently, but haven't found any records of this method of tracking solar cycles anywhere on the net... perhaps you might know. This idea was prompted by the observation that so far in 2009, if I'm not mistaken, the number of Cycle 23 sunspots outnumbers the Cycle 24 sunspots, so the situation is even more dire when this is considered. So the questions in my mind a 1/ Don't the Cycle 23 spots have to vanish completely before we can even begin to say that we have entered the new cycle? 2/ If not, then how far into the new cycle are old spots allowed to occur without casting doubt on the fact that the new cycle has begun yet? I looked all over for a plot of old spots superimposed on a plot of new spots, so that I could get an idea of how long the overlap period typically is. But this is the data that I couldn't find anywhere. Any ideas? I don't think we're past minimum yet. We might be in it right now, and possibly for several more months. I say this despite the fact that there have already been a number of Cycle 24 spots. This minimum is looking like a double-minimum, ironically the inverse of the Cycle 23 double-maximum. Al W6LX |
#4
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Quietest Sun since 1913
"Al Lorona" wrote in
: .... Another idea I had recently, but haven't found any records of this method of tracking solar cycles anywhere on the net... perhaps you might know. This idea was prompted by the observation that so far in 2009, if I'm not mistaken, the number of Cycle 23 sunspots outnumbers the Cycle 24 sunspots, so the situation is even more dire when this is considered. So the questions in my mind a 1/ Don't the Cycle 23 spots have to vanish completely before we can even begin to say that we have entered the new cycle? There are different criteria proposed by different people for the instant that divides two cycles. 2/ If not, then how far into the new cycle are old spots allowed to occur without casting doubt on the fact that the new cycle has begun yet? One criteria is the point in time (month?) when there are equal new sunspots and old sunspots. I looked all over for a plot of old spots superimposed on a plot of new spots, so that I could get an idea of how long the overlap period typically is. But this is the data that I couldn't find anywhere. Any ideas? The so-called butterfly diagram is of interest, see http://sidc.oma.be/images/papi22c.png . High latitude unspots are usually 'new cycle' sunspots. I don't think we're past minimum yet. We might be in it right now, and possibly for several more months. I say this despite the fact that there have already been a number of Cycle 24 spots. This minimum is looking like a double-minimum, ironically the inverse of the Cycle 23 double-maximum. I think on many criteria, we are in cycle 24, fwiw. Al W6LX 73 Owen |
#5
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Quietest Sun since 1913
Owen Duffy wrote:
There are different criteria proposed by different people for the instant that divides two cycles. Which presupposes that an instant actually divides two cycles. :-) My 130/85 blood pressure used to be normal for my age. Now that exact same blood pressure is pre-hypertensive even though I'm 20 years older. I've concluded that human concepts create reality, not vice-versa. :-) -- 73, Cecil, IEEE, OOTC, http://www.w5dxp.com |
#6
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Quietest Sun since 1913
"Cecil Moore" wrote: I've concluded that human concepts create reality, not vice-versa. :-) -- 73, Cecil, IEEE, OOTC, http://www.w5dxp.com I know what you mean, Cecil. It used to be that marriage was between 1 man and 1 woman... Oops, that was off topic. Back to the subject at hand. Owen, those butterfly patterns are neat. It's hard to tell, but it kind of looks like old and new sunspots can overlap each other for maybe a year or more! Wow. I didn't realize that. So maybe there still is hope. But I sure wish Cycle 23 spots would go away. Al W6LX |
#7
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Quietest Sun since 1913
Cecil Moore wrote:
Owen Duffy wrote: There are different criteria proposed by different people for the instant that divides two cycles. Which presupposes that an instant actually divides two cycles. :-) My 130/85 blood pressure used to be normal for my age. Now that exact same blood pressure is pre-hypertensive even though I'm 20 years older. I've concluded that human concepts create reality, not vice-versa. :-) And they have just the medicine that will help you lower that "potential" high blood pressure. Dosing guidelines are keep taking it until you get dizzy and fall down when you stand up. The good news is we'll all live 15 years longer. The bad news is it will be in a Nursing home, with Alzheimer's. It's a math thing. 8^) - 73 de Mike N3LI - |
#8
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Quietest Sun since 1913
"Owen Duffy" wrote in message ... Peter, Your reference is interesting, their story is changing from http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2...cleupdate.htm? list174385 (fix the wrapped URL). I have been plotting the percentage of days in a calendar month that were spotless during this transition. Certainly, March 2009 isn't encouraging. The graphs are at http://www.vk1od.net/propagation/solar/spotless.htm . I wouldn't hazard a guess at when sunspot numbers climb significantly, though signs are that the transition has already occured, just enduring a very long sunspot drought... from Canberra where it doesn't rain any more either! Owen Owen What is your feel for when this quiet period will in fact be breaking new ground? I understand that us humans have only a couple of hundred years for reasonable quality data to assume what the norm is. Bit like our Australian climate records! Regards -- Peter VK6YSF http://members.optushome.com.au/vk6ysf/vk6ysf/main.htm |
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