Steve Bonine posted on Thu, 6 Dec 2007 10:17:51 EST:

I appreciate the kind words, Len, but I think that we all need to
realize that the ham radio hobby as we know it is changing. Of course,
that's no different than at any time in the past, since ham radio today
is different in many respects than ham radio of previous generations.
Like any other technology-driven activity, things have changed and will
continue to change. Can you imagine how amazed someone from the
spark-gap era would be if they were transported into today's world with
its tiny multi-function DC-to-light transceivers? [And just as if to
underscore how common that technology has become, when I misspelled
"transceiver", my email client underlined it for me, and provided the
correct spelling.]

Well, the comparison isn't limited to going all the way back to the
spark-gap transmitter era of the 1920s. Just compare it to the
amateur
radio equipment of 1957. Only the adaptations of commercial radio
done for the amateur radio market could accurately read to within
(maybe) a hundred cycles (think Collins Radio as the best example
then). SSB AM hadn't yet reached mainstream on HF and on-off keying
CW of chains of vacuum tubes were the order of the day. RTTY was rare
and packet unheard of, even the word 'data' hadn't become a generic to
embrace all the various 'digital' modes. In fact, 'digital' was
itself hardly used, limited to nerd-geek programmers of mainframe
computers. :-)

Personal computers just didn't exist as common items of communications
before 1970, just 37 years ago. The Bulletin Board Systems weren't
there except in planning by a very few in 1975, just 32 years ago.
BBSs were the precursor to the Internet and they flourished in the
decade of approximately 1982 to 1992, became
widely popular among personal computer hobbyists and devotees. The
Internet became public in 1991, just 16 years ago, and that changed
the fabric of society in the USA considerably more than personal radio
(including amateur) had ever done. Solid-state devices had an
enormous impact in almost all areas of electronics, including amateur
radio. I see that as a very positive impact on advancement
in all states of the electronics-radio art. A few still openly long
for the old ways when things were 'simpler.'

Tagline: "When I was young we whittled our own ICs out of wood!" :-)

There is, however, an aspect of change these days that is different than
what the hobby has ever experienced, and it's related to the topic of
this thread. The reality is that during the next decades the number of
active ham radio operators is going to decrease. We can massage the
numbers and wring our hands, but there are two absolute facts that we
cannot change: (1) The ham population is aging, (2) The general
population is less interested in ham radio than before.

Heh heh, pardon my chuckling...if I had said the same thing before
2007 (and I have) the reaction would have been severe on Usenet. :-)

Perhaps some are unwilling to accept the second statement as a fact, but
I think you're deluding yourself if so. Historically, most recruits
into the hobby came from young folks, and this demographic is simply not
as fascinated by radio as in the past -- they have many alternatives
vying for their spare time. We are getting more middle-aged and retiree
recruits than ever before, but even this population has many potential
ways to spend their spare time and ham radio has to compete.

I have to admit that my case is a rarity and don't put myself up as
any example to emulate. :-) I was already retired 9 years (at least
from regular hours) when I became an alleged 'beginner' in radio with
an amateur radio license. :-) [that was done on approximately the
51st anniversary of getting my first FCC license...which was done 4
years after I had entered military communications...:-)]

But the big item is the current age of the ham radio population and the
fact that the same forces that are competing for spare time in the
general population apply to already-licensed hams. Analysis of number
of hams licensed is valuable but it doesn't tell the whole story.

True enough, but such statistics are about the only thing available
and
are derived from public databases by the only agency that grants
amateur radio licenses in the USA.

How many licensed hams have gone inactive?

Careful, Steve, you can start a whole new argument on using 'active'
or
'inactive.' In the legal sense of licensing 'active' is used to
describe if
a licensee is within their 10-year grant term and has not entered the
2-
year grace period. To ordinary folk, the word 'active' is commonly
used
for someone who is engaged in some activity currently with only minor
pauses to do other things currently. 'Inactive' to ordinary folk
would
mean a rather full stoppage of an activity.

There's no way license numbers
can tell us, but there are other statistics that do shed a little light
on it. I'm thinking about things like the number of entries in
contests, or the number of voters in ARRL elections. The problem with
these statistics is that they measure only one very narrow segment of
the hobby, but at least they're not falling off significantly. Yet.

One might look to the market for amateur radio goods as a 'minor'
indicator also...and that would be in the number of visible
advertisements in the few amateur radio interest publications. Those
were already diminishing in 1990, 17 years ago. The appearance of
intense interest is kept alive in QST as an example, but that is a
membership magazine and sounding board for the ARRL. The size
and quality of the only real independent competitor in monthlies is
CQ and it has shrunk in the last two decades. Popular
Communications is an independent but it also caters to other radio
interests, not just amateur radio.

On the other hand, I'm not sure that there's anything specific to be
done based on a belief that the number of active hams will decline. Our
local club is considering going from monthly meetings to quarterly
meetings; I don't think that's a good idea but it's the sort of thing
that we may see more of in the years to come. Maybe if we recognize the
reality of a shrinking active-ham population, we can come up with
logical and realistic reactions.

My opinion is that I don't see any 'logical' or 'realistic' things to
come
out of these discussion forums. It's (to me) just a lot of personal
expression, a window into what different folk think. A lot of
commentary is based on what individuals want to see and such
want things to continue in ways they like personally. Their
'reactions' have, by lots of visible proof, been severely negative
to anyone proposing changes. :-) What I can see happening logically
and realistically is individuals (such as yourself) doing things on
an
active basis and looking ahead to a more realistic probable future
for the hobby. Trends have already begun and those show more
changes ahead.

Tagline: "Today is the tomorrow you worried about yesterday." :-)

73, Len AF6AY