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Licensee Numbers Over Nine Months
Steve Bonine posted on Thu, 6 Dec 2007 10:17:51 EST:
I appreciate the kind words, Len, but I think that we all need to realize that the ham radio hobby as we know it is changing. Of course, that's no different than at any time in the past, since ham radio today is different in many respects than ham radio of previous generations. Like any other technology-driven activity, things have changed and will continue to change. Can you imagine how amazed someone from the spark-gap era would be if they were transported into today's world with its tiny multi-function DC-to-light transceivers? [And just as if to underscore how common that technology has become, when I misspelled "transceiver", my email client underlined it for me, and provided the correct spelling.] Well, the comparison isn't limited to going all the way back to the spark-gap transmitter era of the 1920s. Just compare it to the amateur radio equipment of 1957. Only the adaptations of commercial radio done for the amateur radio market could accurately read to within (maybe) a hundred cycles (think Collins Radio as the best example then). SSB AM hadn't yet reached mainstream on HF and on-off keying CW of chains of vacuum tubes were the order of the day. RTTY was rare and packet unheard of, even the word 'data' hadn't become a generic to embrace all the various 'digital' modes. In fact, 'digital' was itself hardly used, limited to nerd-geek programmers of mainframe computers. :-) Personal computers just didn't exist as common items of communications before 1970, just 37 years ago. The Bulletin Board Systems weren't there except in planning by a very few in 1975, just 32 years ago. BBSs were the precursor to the Internet and they flourished in the decade of approximately 1982 to 1992, became widely popular among personal computer hobbyists and devotees. The Internet became public in 1991, just 16 years ago, and that changed the fabric of society in the USA considerably more than personal radio (including amateur) had ever done. Solid-state devices had an enormous impact in almost all areas of electronics, including amateur radio. I see that as a very positive impact on advancement in all states of the electronics-radio art. A few still openly long for the old ways when things were 'simpler.' Tagline: "When I was young we whittled our own ICs out of wood!" :-) There is, however, an aspect of change these days that is different than what the hobby has ever experienced, and it's related to the topic of this thread. The reality is that during the next decades the number of active ham radio operators is going to decrease. We can massage the numbers and wring our hands, but there are two absolute facts that we cannot change: (1) The ham population is aging, (2) The general population is less interested in ham radio than before. Heh heh, pardon my chuckling...if I had said the same thing before 2007 (and I have) the reaction would have been severe on Usenet. :-) Perhaps some are unwilling to accept the second statement as a fact, but I think you're deluding yourself if so. Historically, most recruits into the hobby came from young folks, and this demographic is simply not as fascinated by radio as in the past -- they have many alternatives vying for their spare time. We are getting more middle-aged and retiree recruits than ever before, but even this population has many potential ways to spend their spare time and ham radio has to compete. I have to admit that my case is a rarity and don't put myself up as any example to emulate. :-) I was already retired 9 years (at least from regular hours) when I became an alleged 'beginner' in radio with an amateur radio license. :-) [that was done on approximately the 51st anniversary of getting my first FCC license...which was done 4 years after I had entered military communications...:-)] But the big item is the current age of the ham radio population and the fact that the same forces that are competing for spare time in the general population apply to already-licensed hams. Analysis of number of hams licensed is valuable but it doesn't tell the whole story. True enough, but such statistics are about the only thing available and are derived from public databases by the only agency that grants amateur radio licenses in the USA. How many licensed hams have gone inactive? Careful, Steve, you can start a whole new argument on using 'active' or 'inactive.' In the legal sense of licensing 'active' is used to describe if a licensee is within their 10-year grant term and has not entered the 2- year grace period. To ordinary folk, the word 'active' is commonly used for someone who is engaged in some activity currently with only minor pauses to do other things currently. 'Inactive' to ordinary folk would mean a rather full stoppage of an activity. There's no way license numbers can tell us, but there are other statistics that do shed a little light on it. I'm thinking about things like the number of entries in contests, or the number of voters in ARRL elections. The problem with these statistics is that they measure only one very narrow segment of the hobby, but at least they're not falling off significantly. Yet. One might look to the market for amateur radio goods as a 'minor' indicator also...and that would be in the number of visible advertisements in the few amateur radio interest publications. Those were already diminishing in 1990, 17 years ago. The appearance of intense interest is kept alive in QST as an example, but that is a membership magazine and sounding board for the ARRL. The size and quality of the only real independent competitor in monthlies is CQ and it has shrunk in the last two decades. Popular Communications is an independent but it also caters to other radio interests, not just amateur radio. On the other hand, I'm not sure that there's anything specific to be done based on a belief that the number of active hams will decline. Our local club is considering going from monthly meetings to quarterly meetings; I don't think that's a good idea but it's the sort of thing that we may see more of in the years to come. Maybe if we recognize the reality of a shrinking active-ham population, we can come up with logical and realistic reactions. My opinion is that I don't see any 'logical' or 'realistic' things to come out of these discussion forums. It's (to me) just a lot of personal expression, a window into what different folk think. A lot of commentary is based on what individuals want to see and such want things to continue in ways they like personally. Their 'reactions' have, by lots of visible proof, been severely negative to anyone proposing changes. :-) What I can see happening logically and realistically is individuals (such as yourself) doing things on an active basis and looking ahead to a more realistic probable future for the hobby. Trends have already begun and those show more changes ahead. Tagline: "Today is the tomorrow you worried about yesterday." :-) 73, Len AF6AY |
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