In article , Alun Palmer
writes:

(N2EY wrote):
Well, we'll have to agree to disagree about the probability back in
1992.

But note this: Medical waivers for the 13 and 20 wpm code tests began
in 1990. Anyone who could get a doctor's note needed only to pass 5
wpm. And there were/are lots of accomodations available.

Then in 1991 the code test for all amateur privs above 30 MHz went
away.

The ITU allowed no-code licensing above 420 MHz in 1947 and above 30 MHz
in 1967, I think.

I think if you check, it was 1000 MHz in 1947 and 144 MHz in 1967. But the
principle is the same.

The first no-code licences were actually issued in
Australia in 1952, and the UK followed in 1963.

Japan in 1952, as well.

Of course, this time I don't think it will be another 50 years before
element 1 will be dropped!

Not even 50 weeks, probably.

The reason is that the ARRL did a 180 degree
turn on code testing, which is what led to the no-code Tech. The FCC would
have allowed no-code above 220 in the 70s. They proposed it and the league
talked them out of it! The ARRL would have us beleive otherwise, but it's
all on record.

WHOA! Hold on a second there!

First off, The earliest "serious" proposal for a nocodetest license in the USA
was
in 1975. FCC wanted to create a "dual ladder" license system, with no less than
seven classes of license! This was only a few years after the Incentive
Licensing mess of the '60s. (If you think people are ticked off about the code
test issue, you shoulda been around back then.)

As part of this seven-class system, there would have been a "Communicator"
license with extremely limited VHF/UHF privs and no code test.

The response in the amateur community (not just ARRL leadership) back then was
a resounding NO! FCC scrapped the idea.

Then in 1983, FCC started making noises about a nocodetest license, and again
the response from the amateur community was a resounding NO!.

But in 1989-1990, FCC tried yet a third time and this time made it clear they
really wanted a nocodetest amateur license. At the same time, they were
proposing to reallocate 220 to other services. The response from the amateur
community was no longer a resounding NO - it was more like "well, if the
license has limited VHF-UHF privileges, maybe it would be OK". Specifically,
feedback to the question "would you support or oppose a limited-privileges
VHF/UHF only license with no code test?" was divided 50-50 yes-no.

So the ARRL BoD proposed a compromise: Create a new class of license that would
focus on 220, increasing its usage. (The ARRL proposal did not include 2 meter
privs for the new license). FCC saw through the plan and simply dropped the
code test from the Tech. They compromised by only reallocating 220-222, not the
whole band.

The recent turn-about in ARRL BoD policy was partly the result of a meeting of
Region 3 IARU societies back about 2000. At that meeting, ARRL found itself to
be the lone member supporting retention of S25.5. It became clear that
"resistance was useless" and so the policy was quietly changed at the next BoD
meeting from "support" to "no opinion".

None of this is secret or denied by the ARRL. It's all been in the pages of QST
and on the website.

Was there a sustained increase in amateur radio growth because of those
changes? No - just compare the growth in the '80s vs. the '90s. There
was an initial surge when the changes happened, that's all.

It made less difference than it would have in, say, the 70s, and no-code
HF now will make less difference now than it would have in 90s, much less
the 70s.

MAybe - we'll never know for sure.

I'm not saying our hobby is dying, but interest seems to be
declining.

I mean no disrespect, Alun, but in the 35+ years I've been a ham, I've heard
that and similar reports. None of them ever came true.

What HAS changed is that some of the reasons people used to become hams have
disappeared. If all someone wants is electronic communication, there are lots
of other options, most of which either didn't exist or were prohibitively
expensive only a few decades ago.

Example: In 1972 I knew a girl whose father wrote for one of the big local
papers as TV critic. He had a Model 19 teletype machine in the dining room,
complete with paper tape setup and telephone line interface. He'd write his
columns, then punch a tape and send it to the office. He only went into the
office once a week or so. Today all he'd need is a laptop and a phone line,
costing a tiny fraction of what the Model 19 cost.

It's been over three years since the restructuring and US license
totals have increased by about 11,000. I thought we'd be over 700,000
by 2001.

If/when FCC dumps Element 1, will we see lots of growth? I sincerely
doubt it.

I agree. There will just be a surge in interest for a while.

Which disproves the idea that the code test is some sort of "barrier" to a
license.

Don't forget though that the maritime CW phasing out period began way
back in 1987, although it wasn't completed until 2000 (and some would
say, isn't complete now, despite no testing, distress watch, etc.).

You left out a key word: "mandatory". Morse/CW is still used in some
parts of the maritime services, it's just not mandatory anymore.

Something else happened in the interim, an explosion in
Internet use, which has changed the landscape.

Which would have happened regardless of S25.5.

To paraphrase and expand on a statement by W3RV, amateur radio will
continue to exist because of things it offers that cannot be done
with the internet, email, cell phones or inexpensive long distance
telecommunications. Toss in GMRS/FRS, too. Example: most of the folks
who got ham licenses for honeydew purposes in the '80s and '90s now
have cellphones for that job. There's no point in running routine
phone patches when you can direct dial for a few pennies a minute.

Amateurs, by definition, have to build their facilities with
discretionary money, time and other resources. And no hope of any
financial return. Which means they have to really want to do it or
it's just not gonna happen. Classic "bell the cat" situation.

And removal or retention of various tests or other requirements will
not change any of that. Cell phones, computers and 'net connection have
become a practical necessity in most people's lives today.

73 de Jim, N2EY