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In article , Alun Palmer
writes: (N2EY wrote): Well, we'll have to agree to disagree about the probability back in 1992. But note this: Medical waivers for the 13 and 20 wpm code tests began in 1990. Anyone who could get a doctor's note needed only to pass 5 wpm. And there were/are lots of accomodations available. Then in 1991 the code test for all amateur privs above 30 MHz went away. The ITU allowed no-code licensing above 420 MHz in 1947 and above 30 MHz in 1967, I think. I think if you check, it was 1000 MHz in 1947 and 144 MHz in 1967. But the principle is the same. The first no-code licences were actually issued in Australia in 1952, and the UK followed in 1963. Japan in 1952, as well. Of course, this time I don't think it will be another 50 years before element 1 will be dropped! Not even 50 weeks, probably. The reason is that the ARRL did a 180 degree turn on code testing, which is what led to the no-code Tech. The FCC would have allowed no-code above 220 in the 70s. They proposed it and the league talked them out of it! The ARRL would have us beleive otherwise, but it's all on record. WHOA! Hold on a second there! First off, The earliest "serious" proposal for a nocodetest license in the USA was in 1975. FCC wanted to create a "dual ladder" license system, with no less than seven classes of license! This was only a few years after the Incentive Licensing mess of the '60s. (If you think people are ticked off about the code test issue, you shoulda been around back then.) As part of this seven-class system, there would have been a "Communicator" license with extremely limited VHF/UHF privs and no code test. The response in the amateur community (not just ARRL leadership) back then was a resounding NO! FCC scrapped the idea. Then in 1983, FCC started making noises about a nocodetest license, and again the response from the amateur community was a resounding NO!. But in 1989-1990, FCC tried yet a third time and this time made it clear they really wanted a nocodetest amateur license. At the same time, they were proposing to reallocate 220 to other services. The response from the amateur community was no longer a resounding NO - it was more like "well, if the license has limited VHF-UHF privileges, maybe it would be OK". Specifically, feedback to the question "would you support or oppose a limited-privileges VHF/UHF only license with no code test?" was divided 50-50 yes-no. So the ARRL BoD proposed a compromise: Create a new class of license that would focus on 220, increasing its usage. (The ARRL proposal did not include 2 meter privs for the new license). FCC saw through the plan and simply dropped the code test from the Tech. They compromised by only reallocating 220-222, not the whole band. The recent turn-about in ARRL BoD policy was partly the result of a meeting of Region 3 IARU societies back about 2000. At that meeting, ARRL found itself to be the lone member supporting retention of S25.5. It became clear that "resistance was useless" and so the policy was quietly changed at the next BoD meeting from "support" to "no opinion". None of this is secret or denied by the ARRL. It's all been in the pages of QST and on the website. Was there a sustained increase in amateur radio growth because of those changes? No - just compare the growth in the '80s vs. the '90s. There was an initial surge when the changes happened, that's all. It made less difference than it would have in, say, the 70s, and no-code HF now will make less difference now than it would have in 90s, much less the 70s. MAybe - we'll never know for sure. I'm not saying our hobby is dying, but interest seems to be declining. I mean no disrespect, Alun, but in the 35+ years I've been a ham, I've heard that and similar reports. None of them ever came true. What HAS changed is that some of the reasons people used to become hams have disappeared. If all someone wants is electronic communication, there are lots of other options, most of which either didn't exist or were prohibitively expensive only a few decades ago. Example: In 1972 I knew a girl whose father wrote for one of the big local papers as TV critic. He had a Model 19 teletype machine in the dining room, complete with paper tape setup and telephone line interface. He'd write his columns, then punch a tape and send it to the office. He only went into the office once a week or so. Today all he'd need is a laptop and a phone line, costing a tiny fraction of what the Model 19 cost. It's been over three years since the restructuring and US license totals have increased by about 11,000. I thought we'd be over 700,000 by 2001. If/when FCC dumps Element 1, will we see lots of growth? I sincerely doubt it. I agree. There will just be a surge in interest for a while. Which disproves the idea that the code test is some sort of "barrier" to a license. Don't forget though that the maritime CW phasing out period began way back in 1987, although it wasn't completed until 2000 (and some would say, isn't complete now, despite no testing, distress watch, etc.). You left out a key word: "mandatory". Morse/CW is still used in some parts of the maritime services, it's just not mandatory anymore. Something else happened in the interim, an explosion in Internet use, which has changed the landscape. Which would have happened regardless of S25.5. To paraphrase and expand on a statement by W3RV, amateur radio will continue to exist because of things it offers that cannot be done with the internet, email, cell phones or inexpensive long distance telecommunications. Toss in GMRS/FRS, too. Example: most of the folks who got ham licenses for honeydew purposes in the '80s and '90s now have cellphones for that job. There's no point in running routine phone patches when you can direct dial for a few pennies a minute. Amateurs, by definition, have to build their facilities with discretionary money, time and other resources. And no hope of any financial return. Which means they have to really want to do it or it's just not gonna happen. Classic "bell the cat" situation. And removal or retention of various tests or other requirements will not change any of that. Cell phones, computers and 'net connection have become a practical necessity in most people's lives today. 73 de Jim, N2EY |
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