November 24, 2004

Got an email from a friend, asking me what I thought about commercial radio.
What I like, dislike? How they can attract a following? Can they? What's the
future?

I asked if I could reply in the form of a post... here it is... I don't call
it commercial radio, I call it McRadio:

....the Alt Rock station in Albany plays the same songs by the same artists
as the Alt Rock station in Wichita. Just like a burger at McDonalds, radio
has become packaged and predictable.

The reason for this is well known, the radio stations are essentially bought
and paid for by the record companies through what is known as Payola. So,
they aren't in the business of helping you and I enjoy music, they are in
the business of making money... at the end of the day, organizations have to
make money to stay in business, but if that is all that they care about,
they will need to figure out a way to do without relying on people listening
to the radio, because I don't think that the scheme will be available in 10
or 20 years.

Let me explain... As we all know, the on thing that is certain is that the
future brings two things: More Choices and Change.

Today, I have several options for hooking up an MP3 player to my car; from
cassette adapters to units that allow me to integrate my iPod into the car -
the iPod becomes my personal library of music that I have an interest in.
Over time, more and more cars will offer other built-in functionality beyond
commercial radio and CD players. Today, plenty of cars come with satellite
radios, hard drives, and integration kits for MP3 players, etc. This
adoption curve will continue and the technology will improve that is
required to enable people to share their music collection among devices
(car, home stereo, portable device, etc) and the tools for getting music
will improve as well. Imagine the next iteration of public, high speed,
wi-fi and and a car stereo with an internet connection: want the new Alicia
Keys CD? Download it to your car. When you get home, you can transfer it to
your home computer, stereo, etc. Is that realistic? Yeah, all the technology
exists to do that today, it will probably be a couple of years before anyone
puts it all together and several more years before it is enjoys wide spread
adoption, but it is totally possible. Will this be available in 3, 5 or 10
years? Who knows, but it will be available. One example of this is that I
can easily stream music to my stereo from my PC today. So, now that I can
stream it, why can't I save a copy there if I want?

There might even be something comes before this - and who knows, this might
be available to today - imagine a TiVo like music service. Recording a
stream of radio and then jumping through it, saving and deleting songs as
you go. So what you end up with is an archive of songs you've recorded from
radio, building a library as you go. This might help radio extends its
lifetime, but this seems like a klunky solution. Now, some people will say
that satellite radio is the future and with the narrowly focused channels
and the absence of payola, the assumption is that people will be content for
a while. I don't agree with this. This is still a push model. Someone else
deciding what I'm going to listen to. I don't like that. As things like TV
on demand, which is available today, get integrated into our lives we will
be less likely to put up with someone else dictating when we have to listen
to something.

Can radio overcome this uncertain future? Can they build audience loyalty?
In short, NO. I think they have something major working against them: You
can't be all things to all people, which is what they are relying on with a
push model.

Now, I think that radio needs to better understand what people want. Some
radio stations will exist longer than others, there will always be demand
for Top 40 or news, those stations will last the longest - regardless of the
underlying technology infrastructure delivering the music (satellite, etc).
But the radio stations that want to be in business 10 years from now will
need to better understand how consumers choose music. Let me give you an
example, we just got a new radio station in my area - Smooth Jazz 92.7, they
play (shockingly) smooth jazz (FULL DISCLOSU I know one of the DJs). It
isn't that I like or even know half the artists on the station, but the
music is essentially all the same and I know how I will feel when I listen
to it, actually, they've transcended "genre" and they're offering "mood".
The radio station that can do that, does have a future, albeit a short one.
Genre can be all over the map, mood is a much better programming method. If
a radio station decides that they will go this route, they'll have to
understand that they will give up listeners because not everyone will be in
that mood all the time (yikes, did I just write that?). For instance, I
listen to the Jazz station mostly in the evening, when I'm reading, etc.
When I'm driving to work, for instance, I don't want to listen to Stairway
to Heaven - I want Master of Puppets. On the drive home however, I want to
know about traffic and Master of Puppets isn't quite right... perhaps some
Jeff Buckley or Alicia Keys.

Think about it, radio stations program their music by genre, but most
peoples CD collection is all over the map. Right? Our CD collection,
currently around 400, is so diverse and eclectic that it defies
categorization. Sure, there are some CDs of mine that my wife will never
listen to... and some of hers that I will never, ever listen to, but it is
all over the map - from ABBA to Zebra - and there is probably no radio
station in the world that has played songs from both of those artists.
Wow, I sort of went all over the place on this one...

So, do you think that commercial radio has a future? What can they do to
build loyalty?

http://jstrande.typepad.com/blog/200...ture_of_r.html

"Mike Terry" wrote in message
...
November 24, 2004

...the Alt Rock station in Albany plays the same songs by the same artists
as the Alt Rock station in Wichita. Just like a burger at McDonalds, radio
has become packaged and predictable.

What is unusual in the idea that all Americans would like the same songs
within a particular genre? You are saying taht ER or West Wing or CSI should
only be run in one city, because running them on a network is predictable?
Gimme' a break.

Go back to the mid-50's. One of the popular TV shows was a top 10 countdown,
with a group of 4 singers who sang "covers" of the weeks's most popular
songs. So, going back 50 years, there was nationbal consensus in the hits in
different types of music.

An no one listens to an FM in Albany and then switches to one in Wichita.
Your comparison is without validity.

The reason for this is well known, the radio stations are essentially
bought
and paid for by the record companies through what is known as Payola.

Payola is a crime. There has only been one indictment for it in the last 10
years, since it is so serious. And one station, in upstate NY, fired their
PD last week for suspicion of impropriety with a record company. All group
broadcasters have a severe policy against payola and will fire instantly
anyone involved in it.

So,
they aren't in the business of helping you and I enjoy music, they are in
the business of making money... at the end of the day, organizations have
to
make money to stay in business, but if that is all that they care about,
they will need to figure out a way to do without relying on people
listening
to the radio, because I don't think that the scheme will be available in
10
or 20 years.

You also have the term "payola" totally wrong. Payola only exists if a staff
member of a station takes money for play of music without the knowledge or
consent of management. Since DJs don't select music at 99% of music stations
anymore, this is a moot point anyway... only the PD does, and staions have
safeguards to supervise their PDs.

If a station takes money, it is advertising revenue, but paying a record for
play must be disclosed ounder another part of FCC rules.

Anyway, the record companies are in such bad shape due to piracy and
dowloading they certainly do not have the ability to influence the $23
billion dollar radio business.

Today, I have several options for hooking up an MP3 player to my car; from
cassette adapters to units that allow me to integrate my iPod into the
car -
the iPod becomes my personal library of music that I have an interest in.
Over time, more and more cars will offer other built-in functionality
beyond
commercial radio and CD players. Today, plenty of cars come with satellite
radios, hard drives, and integration kits for MP3 players, etc. This
adoption curve will continue and the technology will improve that is
required to enable people to share their music collection among devices
(car, home stereo, portable device, etc) and the tools for getting music
will improve as well. Imagine the next iteration of public, high speed,
wi-fi and and a car stereo with an internet connection: want the new
Alicia
Keys CD? Download it to your car. When you get home, you can transfer it
to
your home computer, stereo, etc. Is that realistic? Yeah, all the
technology
exists to do that today, it will probably be a couple of years before
anyone
puts it all together and several more years before it is enjoys wide
spread
adoption, but it is totally possible. Will this be available in 3, 5 or 10
years? Who knows, but it will be available. One example of this is that I
can easily stream music to my stereo from my PC today. So, now that I can
stream it, why can't I save a copy there if I want?

You know, they said the same thing about the 45 RPM record and the cassette.
The problem with everything you indicate is that it either takes a lot of
time (and thus for only hardcore music fans) or costs money. Radio will be
around for many decades.

There might even be something comes before this - and who knows, this
might
be available to today - imagine a TiVo like music service. Recording a
stream of radio and then jumping through it, saving and deleting songs as
you go. So what you end up with is an archive of songs you've recorded
from
radio, building a library as you go. This might help radio extends its
lifetime, but this seems like a klunky solution. Now, some people will say
that satellite radio is the future and with the narrowly focused channels
and the absence of payola,

Arguments based on payola are, by definition, faulty. There is no such
practice. In fact, stations spend lots of money to research what listeners
want to hear locally. I know of some stations that spend as much as $250,000
a year for this... so that tey will play the songs their listeners want to
hear.

Can radio overcome this uncertain future? Can they build audience loyalty?
In short, NO. I think they have something major working against them: You
can't be all things to all people, which is what they are relying on with
a
push model.

This is true. Radi can satisfy well over 90% of the people most of the time.
This has been true "forever" since for many decades radio has not been the
only music delivery system. Yet in the long run, most people find the free
and convenient aspects of radio to be useful in most instances.

Now, I think that radio needs to better understand what people want. Some
radio stations will exist longer than others, there will always be demand
for Top 40 or news, those stations will last the longest - regardless of
the
underlying technology infrastructure delivering the music (satellite,
etc).

Actually, Top 40, which has been called CHR since the 70's, is a tough
format. And all news is a shrinking format with very few stations left.

But the radio stations that want to be in business 10 years from now will
need to better understand how consumers choose music. Let me give you an
example, we just got a new radio station in my area - Smooth Jazz 92.7,
they
play (shockingly) smooth jazz (FULL DISCLOSU I know one of the DJs). It
isn't that I like or even know half the artists on the station, but the
music is essentially all the same and I know how I will feel when I listen
to it, actually, they've transcended "genre" and they're offering "mood".

That is the whole idea... to create a mood. Otherwise, you are a jukebox or
an MP3 player in random mode.

I presume you are talking abot WSJW in Starview (York MSA) which has had
excellent ratings increases (more than double) since switching from Oldies
in late 2003. This format is highly researched, and the whole appeal is in
the blend, just as the same was true for the enormous success of Beautiful
Music in the 70's... mood creation, relaxation, stress relief, etc.

The radio station that can do that, does have a future, albeit a short
one.

The first smooth jazz station debuted in around '86 or '87 in Los Angeles,
and is still top 5 in 25-54, the demo that matters for sales. This is a
healthy format wherever it is done, and has true staying power.

Genre can be all over the map, mood is a much better programming method.
If
a radio station decides that they will go this route, they'll have to
understand that they will give up listeners because not everyone will be
in
that mood all the time (yikes, did I just write that?). For instance, I
listen to the Jazz station mostly in the evening, when I'm reading, etc.
When I'm driving to work, for instance, I don't want to listen to Stairway
to Heaven - I want Master of Puppets. On the drive home however, I want to
know about traffic and Master of Puppets isn't quite right... perhaps some
Jeff Buckley or Alicia Keys.

This is why your radio has buttons and knobs. Eveyone in the US averages 3
to 4 radio stations they make frequent use of, and several more for
occaisonal usage. Listeners know where to go at any time for the particulary
programming they are in the mood for.

Radio does not set a mood, it complements a listener mood. If I am in the
mood for rock (heaven forbid), I know where to go. It is not the station job
to change my mood.

Think about it, radio stations program their music by genre, but most
peoples CD collection is all over the map. Right? Our CD collection,
currently around 400, is so diverse and eclectic that it defies
categorization. Sure, there are some CDs of mine that my wife will never
listen to... and some of hers that I will never, ever listen to, but it is
all over the map - from ABBA to Zebra - and there is probably no radio
station in the world that has played songs from both of those artists.
Wow, I sort of went all over the place on this one...

So? This is why recorded music has one purpose and radio stations another.
And I have well over 3,000 CDs, but spend the better part of my leisure time
listening to radio, not CDs.

On 25 Nov 2004 09:04:59 GMT, "Mike Terry"
wrote:

...the Alt Rock station in Albany plays the same songs by the same artists
as the Alt Rock station in Wichita. Just like a burger at McDonalds, radio
has become packaged and predictable.

How many people travel often between Albany and Wichita and spend
enough time there to know the playlists are similar? Are you
proposing that if Wichita plays a song, Albany can't? Who will keep
the database of permitted songs in specific markets?

The reason for this is well known, the radio stations are essentially bought
and paid for by the record companies through what is known as Payola. So,
they aren't in the business of helping you and I enjoy music, they are in
the business of making money...

So, record companies should produce songs for individual communities
and forego mass markets? I've programmed music stations in Boston, San
Diego and New York, as well as hundreds via syndication over the
years. Not once has any record company ever offered me anything that
could be considered Payola. Where did I go wrong? All I got was a
stinking phony bubble gum machine. In New York, my station was a Radio
& Records reporting station. That should have been worth something -
maybe at least a political-type junket to a warm, hooker-filled
resort.

Today, I have several options for hooking up an MP3 player to my car; from
cassette adapters to units that allow me to integrate my iPod into the car -
the iPod becomes my personal library of music that I have an interest in.

That's really the issue, not "cookie-cutter" formats. You want what
you want when you want it. You're still a profit center for the record
companies because I'm sure you're not illegally downloading or ripping
CDs you haven't purchased. I'm sure you've paid for every cut that
resides in the iPod (ripping other people's CDs isn't kosher, either).
Remember, we're assuming you're honest.

With the legal and honesty issues out of the way we need to deal with
all those people who still can't figure out how to get rid of the
flashing 12:00 on their VCRs.

My car and home are wired and wireless. Like you, I'm what used to be
called a Geek (now Techie). I can plug anything into anything. Even my
Tivo updates itself wirelessly.

Can radio overcome this uncertain future? Can they build audience loyalty?
In short, NO. I think they have something major working against them: You
can't be all things to all people, which is what they are relying on with a
push model.

The "push" model is essentially the same as the mass marketing model.
If every person demands a different music mix (with legally purchased
music, of course) radio will go away, as will MTV and other sampling
sources that now let you hear what music you want to legally purchase
to fill your iPod. You are buying the music you're recording?
Remember, I'm assuming you're honest. No swapping; by the letter of
the law that says you can make an archival copy for your own use.

Let's go back to the labor-intensive nature of your model. I assume
you have many small electronic devices. Each one has 97 more functions
than you'll ever use. Do you remember all of them without going to the
manual? My VCR requires 23 button pushes to set the clock. Some
require two hands. Since I only use that sequence once or twice a year
I haven't committed it to memory.

My car's battery went dead not long ago. I had to reset 2 clocks, a
terrestrial radio's 18 per band station presets, 18 XM presets and 20
SIRIUS presets. I was living in New York during the last power
failure. 29 hours without power. Everything had to be reset. I won't
even attempt to calculate the number of button pushes needed.

How many people do you know who make regular computer backups? I have
a 30gb MP3 player. The general rule in computing is not IF your hard
drive will die, it's when. You are making backups of all that legally
purchased music and are prepared to reload everything?

So, the mass market is gone. Not much new music is being produced
except by those willing to let you legally purchase and download the
few songs they cut in their garage (without egg cartons on the wall).
Now we're reduced to recording ourselves in the shower. When I sing in
the shower the tiles shatter, so that's not an option.

I know many, many people with gadgets. After a while they get tired of
the work they require and either listen to terrestrial radio or
silence punctuated by some obscenity hurled from the car in the next
lane.

Too much work for all but the Geekiest among us.

Rich

Mike Terry wrote:
The reason for this is well known, the radio stations are essentially bought
and paid for by the record companies through what is known as Payola. So,
they aren't in the business of helping you and I enjoy music, they are in
the business of making money...

No, not at all. Payola is long gone. Back when there was payola, PDs
were happy to play new music, because the record companies paid them to
play new music. Now everybody is terrified of playing new music, so they
all have become followers. Payola is what kept radio fresh and interesting
for years, and what you're seeing with the current homogenization of commercial
radio is what has happened as a result of it being eliminated.
--scott

--
"C'est un Nagra. C'est suisse, et tres, tres precis."

In article ,
Rich Wood wrote:
The "push" model is essentially the same as the mass marketing model.

....which has been effectively dead for most of the past decade if not
longer, according to what I see in the business (not radio trade)
press. For that matter, "mass marketing" radio went the way of the
dodo at least as long ago. Have you ever heard a commercial station
with both Tim McGraw and Eminem in its playlist? Yet I remember, as
recently as the early 1980s, hearing Kenny Rogers and The Clash on the
same station. Even "We Play Everything" WRZA has settled down into
its "males 25-54" niche; I venture to say (based on my admittedly
limited listening experience) that their "everything" does not include
either Celine Dion or Buddy Guy.

Talk to some of your advertising clients.... Even what were once
considered to be the ultimate in mass-merchandised products (soap,
hamburgers, Coke, tires) are now marketed just as narrowly as radio
formats. (This should come as no surprise to anyone, as the narrowing
of radio formats was driven by the economics of advertising.) Of
course, narrower radio formats don't help advertisers who are seeking
an audience that doesn't use commercial radio at all (e.g., educated
adults 18-30, like most of my co-workers).

Given the rate of cultural fragmentation currently observed in this
country, the days of any sort of sustained mass audiences are long
over and unlikely ever to return.

-GAWollman

--
Garrett A. Wollman | As the Constitution endures, persons in every
| generation can invoke its principles in their own
Opinions not those of| search for greater freedom.
MIT, LCS, CRS, or NSA| - A. Kennedy, Lawrence v. Texas, 539 U.S. ___ (2003)

Rich Wood wrote:

So, record companies should produce songs for individual communities
and forego mass markets?

I'd much rather see the majors continue to mass-produce, and the local radio
stations offer a little better focus on local indie artists from time to time.
Nine Inch Nails, formed by Trent Reznor, sounds incredible, but Reznor moved to
my hometown from Mercer, PA to try to break into the business, and was
spectacularly unsuccessful. I understand he hates Cleveland as a result, and
given the abject lack of ANY kind of airplay he got from ANY of the commercial
stations in town, I can't blame him for being angry.

I'm not saying indie rock is all the big stations should play, but it would be
nice if more of them made an effort to help break new talent from time to time.
Reznor had a sound that probably would have worked on WMMS (the local
album-rock station back then), but did he get into the rotation there, ever?
Ha. I never heard him on 'MMS. Not once. I heard more buzz from people I talked
to working near a local college campus than I heard anywhere else, even a
couple years later when the local Top-40 station flipped to "modern rock". (A
few years later, however, the modern rock's station airplay of "Ballad of Peter
Pumpkinhead" by XTC prompted WMMS to play the song too, which was rather
amusing because I never figured I'd hear XTC on the radio at all.)

stinking phony bubble gum machine. In New York, my station was a Radio
& Records reporting station. That should have been worth something -
maybe at least a political-type junket to a warm, hooker-filled
resort.

Hey, you want to go to the Caribbean? Manhattan is only a few mintues away from
Jamaica, right? (Oh, wait, that Jamaica isn't in the Caribbean...)

My car's battery went dead not long ago. I had to reset 2 clocks, a
terrestrial radio's 18 per band station presets, 18 XM presets and 20
SIRIUS presets.

Hey, I solve that problem by only listening to FM :P

--
JustThe.net Internet & New Media Services, http://JustThe.net/
Steven J. Sobol, Geek In Charge / 888.480.4NET (4638) /
PGP Key available from your friendly local key server (0xE3AE35ED)
Apple Valley, California Nothing scares me anymore. I have three kids.

"Garrett Wollman" wrote in message
...

[...] For that matter, "mass marketing" radio went the way of the
dodo at least as long ago. Have you ever heard a commercial station
with both Tim McGraw and Eminem in its playlist? Yet I remember, as
recently as the early 1980s, hearing Kenny Rogers and The Clash on the
same station. Even "We Play Everything" WRZA has settled down into
its "males 25-54" niche; I venture to say (based on my admittedly
limited listening experience) that their "everything" does not include
either Celine Dion or Buddy Guy.

Yeah, isn't that a shame? No, really! (I had to confirm that I wasn't being
sarcastic, since a comment like that referring to Dion could be considered snarky).
That's exactly what I miss in radio today....way too predictable, no coliones to just
play something that's good, regardless of its genre. Gone are the days when you
could have a crossover pop hit, as in the days when Country was so big it
crossed-over to pop, or (from the sublime to the ridiculous) when the Bee Gees went
disco, thus infiltrating AOR stations with the first beachhead for that abomination.
This effect appears also on satellite radio, where the music channels are so
researched and segregated that it's YOU, the listener, who has to go search out
diversity, because you're not going to find anything outside of the channel's target.

Given the rate of cultural fragmentation currently observed in this
country, the days of any sort of sustained mass audiences are long
over and unlikely ever to return.

Which only goes to show that we, the American public, have lost our edge. If we
can't embrace the slightlest little thing like music as a chance to see a little bit
more of the world, then how in the world can you expect that we'll even listen to
something as important as where our country is going?

Ray Charles was, by most estimations, a great artist. In my opinion, the reason why
he is considered so is because, as he said himself, the only thing he required of his
music was that it was "good music." His search for "good music" changed our culture,
adding jazz, blues, country, rockabilly, rock and so much more, making us the richer
for it, and in large measure, even, makiing it possible for acts like the Beatles and
other milestone rock acts to effect their own changes.

So here we are....stuck at a wall we will not climb.

I think I'm going to go out back and slash my wrists.
--
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
If there's nothing that offends you in your community, then you know you're not
living in a free society.
Kim Campbell - ex-Prime Minister of Canada - 2004
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
For direct replies, take out the contents between the hyphens. -Really!-

"Scott Dorsey" wrote in message
...
Mike Terry wrote:
The reason for this is well known, the radio stations are essentially
bought
and paid for by the record companies through what is known as Payola. So,
they aren't in the business of helping you and I enjoy music, they are in
the business of making money...

No, not at all. Payola is long gone.

Untrue. A PD was fired in Rochester for accepting the latest record company
scam, giving gift cards 2to give to listeners" which the PD kept... that was
last week. There were a half-dozen indictments about 5 years ago in CA,
resulting in two convictions.

Back when there was payola, PDs
were happy to play new music, because the record companies paid them to
play new music.

The practice was never prevalent, and most PDs knew it was illegal and a
firing offense, too. Few station staffers ever took payola. And even when
givin, it affected only the biggest stations in the biggest markets.

Now everybody is terrified of playing new music, so they
all have become followers.

Everyone realizes the average listener only wants to hear a small bit of new
music.

Payola is what kept radio fresh and interesting
for years, and what you're seeing with the current homogenization of
commercial
radio is what has happened as a result of it being eliminated.

It was never widespread. Your theory is wrong.

"David Eduardo" wrote in message
...

"Scott Dorsey" wrote in message
...
Mike Terry wrote:
The reason for this is well known, the radio stations are essentially
bought
and paid for by the record companies through what is known as Payola. So,
they aren't in the business of helping you and I enjoy music, they are in
the business of making money...

No, not at all. Payola is long gone.

Untrue. A PD was fired in Rochester for accepting the latest record company
scam, giving gift cards 2to give to listeners" which the PD kept... that was
last week. There were a half-dozen indictments about 5 years ago in CA,
resulting in two convictions.

I wouldn't call that payola, though, David. That's just fraud or larceny. But the
problem remains that in its executed form (where said gift cards actually go to said
listeners), it's still a corruption of the way things should be. The gift cards
would have augmented the station's promotion budget, thus enabling the station to,
perhaps, capitalise on the opportunity to greater financial rewards...and all the PD
had to do was "give a moment of consideration" to the list of otherwise unremarkable
recordings.

Payola or not, anyone having an interest in the music business should be barred from
offering any rewards to the outlets or their representatives who make decisions on
whether or not that outlet should be playing the output from the music business.

Like that's going to happen anytime soon.
--
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
If there's nothing that offends you in your community, then you know you're not
living in a free society.
Kim Campbell - ex-Prime Minister of Canada - 2004
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
For direct replies, take out the contents between the hyphens. -Really!-

In article ,
David Eduardo wrote:

Everyone realizes the average listener only wants to hear a small bit of new
music.

Only if you accept the thesis that "the average listener" is a
drooling idiot.

Of course, since two decades of radio programming directed towards
morons has driven many non-morons away from radio entirely (at least
as a source on musical entertainment), this could now reasonably be
stipulated as the audience living up (or rather, down) to programmers'
expectations.

-GAWollman

--
Garrett A. Wollman | As the Constitution endures, persons in every
| generation can invoke its principles in their own
Opinions not those of| search for greater freedom.
MIT, LCS, CRS, or NSA| - A. Kennedy, Lawrence v. Texas, 539 U.S. ___ (2003)