:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2011 Jul 05 1804 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
27 June - 03 July 2011

Solar activity was very low for 27 June to 02 July and increased to
low levels for 03 July. Region 1236 (N17, L=167, class/area Ehi/350
on 15 June), which rotated around west limb on 26 June, produced
most of the activity on 27-28 June. Regions 1242 (N17, L=056,
class/area Dso/90 on 29 June), 1243 (N16, L=351, class/area Cao/80
on 02 July), and 1244 (N16, L=024, class/area Dso/60 on 03 July)
dominated activity for 29 June - 02 July with occasional B-class
flares. Region 1244 became the dominant flare producing region on 03
July with a C2/Sf at 1244 UTC. The region also produced a long
duration B9/Sf at 03/0024 UTC which was associated with type II and
type IV radio sweeps as well as a partial halo CME centered over the
southwest limb.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels for 27-30 June but dropped to background levels for
01-03 July.

Geomagnetic field activity was predominantly quiet for 27-30 June.
Quiet to active levels were observed on 01 July due to a high speed
stream from a coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled levels prevailed for
02-03 July with some isolated active periods at high latitudes as
the high speed stream slowly subsided. The high speed stream was
weak with peak velocity around 450 km/s; enhanced activity intervals
corresponded to somewhat enhanced negative Bz intervals (e.g. around
-5 to -7 nT late in the day on 30 June and early in the day on 03
July).

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
06 July - 01 August 2011

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for most of the
outlook interval. There may be an increase in background levels for
10-21 July with the return of old Region 1236 on 10 July which may
also increase activity to low levels. There is a chance that new,
rapidly emerging flux regions could increase activity to moderate
levels at any time during the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at background levels initially. An increase to high
levels is expected around 20 July and lasting through 26 July in
response to a recurrent high speed stream. Background levels are
expected to return for 26 July - 01 August.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled for
6-8 July. Quiet levels are expected for 09-19 July. An increase to
unsettled with a chance for active periods is expected for 18-21
July in response to a recurrent high speed stream. Quiet levels are
expected to prevail for 24 July - 28 July. Another increase to
unsettled levels is expected for 29-30 July due to another recurrent
high speed stream, with quiet levels returning for 31 July - 01
August.