:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Jan 30 0445 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
23 - 29 January 2017

Solar activity was at mostly very low levels with low levels
observed on 28 January due to an isolated C2 flare at 28/2109 UTC
from Region 2627 (N06, L=193, class/area Dai/110 on 22 January). An
associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed off of the west
limb in coronagraph imagery beginning at 28/2148 UTC but was
determined not to have a geoeffective component. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels with high levels observed on 23-24, and
26-29 January. The largest flux value of the period was 2,495 pfu
observed at 28/1800 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels over
the period. Solar wind parameters were indicative of background
conditions to start the period. Midday on 26 January, wind speed
began to increase as an isolated, positive polarity coronal hole
high-speed stream (CH HSS) became geoeffective. Wind speed reached a
maximum of 697 km/s at 27/0609 UTC and total field peaked at 16 nT
at 26/2330 UTC before gradually decreasing throughout the remainder
of the period. The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels on 23-24
January, quiet to unsettled levels on 25, 28-29 January, and quiet
to active levels on 26-27 January.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
30 January - 25 February 2017

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for
C-class flares on 30 January - 04 February as Regions 2628 (N12,
L=174, class/area Dso/220 on 23 January) and 2629 (N15, L=110,
class/area Dao/220 on 25 January) rotate across the visible disk.
Very low levels are expected from 05-11 February. Very low levels
with a slight chance for C-class flares are expected on 12-25
February with the return of Region 2627.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely
on 01-13, 16-18, and 22-25 February due to CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on 30 January - 07 February, and again on 14-18 and 22-25
February with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels likely on 31
January, and 01 February due to recurrent CH HSS effects.