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Old October 2nd 17, 04:30 PM posted to rec.radio.amateur.dx,rec.radio.amateur.space,rec.radio.shortwave,rec.radio.info
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Default Weekly Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity, 25 September - 01 October 2017

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Oct 02 0329 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
25 September - 01 October 2017

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2683 (N14, L=119,
class/area Hkx/280 on 28 Sep) produced the strongest flare of the
period, a C1 at 26/0234 UTC. All active regions on the disk remained
relatively quiet, simple and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed during the reporting period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged
from normal background to very high levels. Normal background levels
on 25 Sep increased to moderate levels on 26-27 Sep. A further
increase to high levels on 28-29 Sep and 01 Oct, with a peak of very
high levels on 30 Sep, was observed in response to activity
generated by a positive polarity CH HSS. A maximum flux of 52,054
pfu was observed at 30/1635 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to G3 (Strong) storm
levels in response to a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled
conditions on 25 Sep and quiet conditions at 26 Sep gave way to G2
(Moderate) storm levels on 27 Sep due to the onset of the CH HSS.
Conditions increased to active to G3 (Strong) levels on 28 Sep as
wind speed continued to increase, reaching a peak of just above 700
km/s. Geomagnetic activity quickly decreased as wind speeds
gradually waned over the next several days. Quiet to active activity
was observed on 30 Sep and quiet to unsettled was observed on 29 Sep
and 01 Oct. The period ended with solar wind speeds near 450 km/s.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
02 October - 28 October 2017

Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for
C-class activity throughout the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 02-05 Oct, 07-09 Oct, 12-21 Oct and
01 Nov; very high levels are expected on 27 Oct. Elevated flux
levels are expected in anticipation of influence from multiple,
recurrent CH HSSs. Normal to moderate levels are expected for the
remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled levels on
02 Oct, 06 Oct, 08 Oct, 16-17 Oct and 28 Oct; active levels are
expected on 07 Oct, 15 Oct and 26-27 Oct; G1 (Minor) storm levels
are expected on 11-14 Oct; G2 (Moderate) storm levels are expected
on 24 Oct and G3 (Strong) storm levels are expected on 25 Oct. All
increased activity is expected in response to multiple, recurrent CH
HSSs. Quiet conditions are expected over the remainder of the
outlook period.


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