KR Williams wrote:

In article ,
says...
On a sunny day (Thu, 15 Apr 2004 05:57:18 GMT) it happened
wrote in :

....snip...

Add that in, and the cost of a $15000 system is
much worse - over 30,000 in a 25 year, 7% mortgage.

You have to take into account that the cost of a kWh from
the grid in 25 years will be a LOT higher too, if there
still is a grid during and after WW3 that is.

That's silly economics. I do not have to take into account the
cost of electricity in 25 years. I can wait. Solar cells are
becoming cheaper too. When the cost of the solar cell is less
than the cost of power from the grid I can switch, saving all of
the negative amortization inbetween, and have a *new* system in
25 years, just as you're in need of replacing yours. ;-)

My guess though, is that solar cells for the individual will
never become cheaper than power from the grid, since the power
company has access to the same technology and a *lot* better
financing possibilities. ...and they don't have to have the pay-
back in my lifetime.

They have access to the tech, BUT, they also have to maintain the
distribution system. Since my electricity has been unbundled,
roughly half of my cost per Kwh goes to the distribution co., not the
producer. Ice storms, drunk drivers, blown line fuses all cost money.
As well as the personel and associated benefits packages,
transportation costs of materials, etc. for maintaining the lines.
All this is avoided cost on home solar.

And...
www.solaraccess.com/news/story?storyid=6482

talking about a new discovery:

"A solar cell with the simplest possible physical structure could
achieve 50 percent efficiency or better, far higher than any yet
demonstrated in the laboratory."

It isn't cost effective for most of us yet, but the tipping point
is coming.

--
Jerry wa2rkn no email @ present

In article , box
says...
KR Williams wrote:

In article ,
says...
On a sunny day (Thu, 15 Apr 2004 05:57:18 GMT) it happened
wrote in :

...snip...

Add that in, and the cost of a $15000 system is
much worse - over 30,000 in a 25 year, 7% mortgage.

You have to take into account that the cost of a kWh from
the grid in 25 years will be a LOT higher too, if there
still is a grid during and after WW3 that is.

That's silly economics. I do not have to take into account the
cost of electricity in 25 years. I can wait. Solar cells are
becoming cheaper too. When the cost of the solar cell is less
than the cost of power from the grid I can switch, saving all of
the negative amortization inbetween, and have a *new* system in
25 years, just as you're in need of replacing yours. ;-)

My guess though, is that solar cells for the individual will
never become cheaper than power from the grid, since the power
company has access to the same technology and a *lot* better
financing possibilities. ...and they don't have to have the pay-
back in my lifetime.

They have access to the tech, BUT, they also have to maintain the
distribution system. Since my electricity has been unbundled,
roughly half of my cost per Kwh goes to the distribution co., not the
producer. Ice storms, drunk drivers, blown line fuses all cost money.
As well as the personel and associated benefits packages,
transportation costs of materials, etc. for maintaining the lines.
All this is avoided cost on home solar.

There is still a huge advantage of scale. Without the grid
you'll have to store your own energy, which is certainly not
free. Peak energy usage is not near peak insolation.
And...
www.solaraccess.com/news/story?storyid=6482

talking about a new discovery:

"A solar cell with the simplest possible physical structure could
achieve 50 percent efficiency or better, far higher than any yet
demonstrated in the laboratory."

Irrelevant. The large producers will have any technology you
will, first and on a much more massive scale.


It isn't cost effective for most of us yet, but the tipping point
is coming.

So is the end of the oil reserves. It's been coming twenty years
from now, for about a hundred years. The tipping point will
certainly come, but the large generators will make it there
before your ****-ant house will.

--
Keith

KR Williams wrote:
In article , box
says...
It isn't cost effective for most of us yet, but the tipping point
is coming.

So is the end of the oil reserves. It's been coming twenty years
from now, for about a hundred years. The tipping point will
certainly come, but the large generators will make it there
before your ****-ant house will.

I think the main point is that solar PV is a technology that
does not require massive infrastructure. It's something that
can be done on an individual and distributed basis. The big
power companies really don't have that much advantage over
individuals.

Anthony

On Mon, 19 Apr 2004 21:18:45 -0700, Anthony Matonak
wrote:
[snip]

I think the main point is that solar PV is a technology that
does not require massive infrastructure. It's something that
can be done on an individual and distributed basis.

The big
power companies really don't have that much advantage over
individuals.

Anthony

Sure they do. While you are dicking around with solar cells the big
power companies will build a solar-powered steam plant with *huge*
servo'd mirrors. I put pencil-to-paper once upon a time... you can do
marvelously if you've got the acreage.

...Jim Thompson
--
| James E.Thompson, P.E. | mens |
| Analog Innovations, Inc. | et |
| Analog/Mixed-Signal ASIC's and Discrete Systems | manus |
| Phoenix, Arizona Voice480)460-2350 | |
| E-mail Address at Website Fax480)460-2142 | Brass Rat |
| http://www.analog-innovations.com | 1962 |

I love to cook with wine. Sometimes I even put it in the food.

"Jim Thompson" wrote in message
...

While you are dicking around with solar cells the big
power companies will build a solar-powered steam plant with *huge*
servo'd mirrors. I put pencil-to-paper once upon a time... you can do
marvelously if you've got the acreage.


They already have.

http://www.volker-quaschning.de/downloads/VGB2001.pdf

Scroll down to page 5.

On Tue, 20 Apr 2004 10:14:31 -0700, "Richard Henry"
wrote:


"Jim Thompson" wrote in message
.. .

While you are dicking around with solar cells the big
power companies will build a solar-powered steam plant with *huge*
servo'd mirrors. I put pencil-to-paper once upon a time... you can do
marvelously if you've got the acreage.


They already have.

http://www.volker-quaschning.de/downloads/VGB2001.pdf

Scroll down to page 5.


Arizona Public Service has a similar operating facility west of
Phoenix that, for some reason, is kept very hush-hush. It was in the
papers a few years ago, then no more mention.

The efficiency of such a system FAR exceeds what will EVER be attained
with photo cells.

...Jim Thompson
--
| James E.Thompson, P.E. | mens |
| Analog Innovations, Inc. | et |
| Analog/Mixed-Signal ASIC's and Discrete Systems | manus |
| Phoenix, Arizona Voice480)460-2350 | |
| E-mail Address at Website Fax480)460-2142 | Brass Rat |
| http://www.analog-innovations.com | 1962 |

I love to cook with wine. Sometimes I even put it in the food.

On Tue, 20 Apr 2004 10:14:31 -0700, "Richard Henry"
wrote:


"Jim Thompson" wrote in message
.. .

While you are dicking around with solar cells the big
power companies will build a solar-powered steam plant with *huge*
servo'd mirrors. I put pencil-to-paper once upon a time... you can do
marvelously if you've got the acreage.


They already have.

http://www.volker-quaschning.de/downloads/VGB2001.pdf

Scroll down to page 5.


Arizona Public Service has a similar operating facility west of
Phoenix that, for some reason, is kept very hush-hush. It was in the
papers a few years ago, then no more mention.

The efficiency of such a system FAR exceeds what will EVER be attained
with photo cells.

...Jim Thompson
--
| James E.Thompson, P.E. | mens |
| Analog Innovations, Inc. | et |
| Analog/Mixed-Signal ASIC's and Discrete Systems | manus |
| Phoenix, Arizona Voice480)460-2350 | |
| E-mail Address at Website Fax480)460-2142 | Brass Rat |
| http://www.analog-innovations.com | 1962 |

I love to cook with wine. Sometimes I even put it in the food.

"Jim Thompson" wrote in message
...

While you are dicking around with solar cells the big
power companies will build a solar-powered steam plant with *huge*
servo'd mirrors. I put pencil-to-paper once upon a time... you can do
marvelously if you've got the acreage.


They already have.

http://www.volker-quaschning.de/downloads/VGB2001.pdf

Scroll down to page 5.

Anthony Matonak wrote:

KR Williams wrote:

In article , box says...

It isn't cost effective for most of us yet, but the tipping point
is coming.


So is the end of the oil reserves. It's been coming twenty years from
now, for about a hundred years.

Your _doomsday_ assertion that oil reserves are ending is totally
ridiculous. There are a zillion gallons of oil locked up in shale in
North America, just waiting for an economical way to extract them.
Problem is, they cost too much to extract, so that's not practical
_at_this_time_. But if the price of petroleum continues to go up, then
finally someday the point will come where the cost to extract it *is*
competitive. Then it will get included in reserves.

Another possibility is that if the cost of petroleum continues to rise,
the cost of alternative energy sources may become more competitive, and
will replace petroleum. Alcohol from corn is one that comes to mind.

Maybe if the cost of gas goes up another buck or so, I'll be able to
drive down the street without having to fight so much traffic. All
those gas guzzling vehicles will drive their owners to the poorhouse and
they'll stay off the roads. ;-)

The tipping point will certainly
come, but the large generators will make it there before your ****-ant
house will.

I think the main point is that solar PV is a technology that
does not require massive infrastructure. It's something that
can be done on an individual and distributed basis. The big
power companies really don't have that much advantage over
individuals.

Anthony

On Mon, 19 Apr 2004 21:18:45 -0700, Anthony Matonak
wrote:
[snip]

I think the main point is that solar PV is a technology that
does not require massive infrastructure. It's something that
can be done on an individual and distributed basis.

The big
power companies really don't have that much advantage over
individuals.

Anthony

Sure they do. While you are dicking around with solar cells the big
power companies will build a solar-powered steam plant with *huge*
servo'd mirrors. I put pencil-to-paper once upon a time... you can do
marvelously if you've got the acreage.

...Jim Thompson
--
| James E.Thompson, P.E. | mens |
| Analog Innovations, Inc. | et |
| Analog/Mixed-Signal ASIC's and Discrete Systems | manus |
| Phoenix, Arizona Voice480)460-2350 | |
| E-mail Address at Website Fax480)460-2142 | Brass Rat |
| http://www.analog-innovations.com | 1962 |

I love to cook with wine. Sometimes I even put it in the food.