:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2011 Nov 15 2044 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
07 - 13 November 2011

Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. Activity began at low
levels on 07 November, although Regions 1339 (N19E45, L=102,
class/area Fkc/1540 on 04 November) and 1338 (S=14, L=121,
class/area Ehi/375 on 03 November) both exhibited spot areal
coverage growth. Late on 07 November, a filament channel eruption
was observed in SDO/AIA imagery beginning around 07/2232Z. LASCO C2
imagery first indicated a CME liftoff from the NW limb at 07/2348Z.
Activity remained at low levels on 08 November, as Regions 1339 and
1338 both started to decay and simplify magnetically. On 09
November, activity increased to moderate levels when a long duration
M1 flare occurred at 09/1335Z. Associated with this event were a
Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 750 km/s and
an Earth directed full-halo CME, visible in LASCO C2 imagery at
09/1336Z. Activity decreased to low levels on 10 November with the
largest event of the day being a C6/1f flare at 10/1831Z. Region
1339 remained the largest region on the disk but continued to decay.
On 11 November, activity remained at low levels with Region 1344
(S19, L=101, class/area Dai/200 on 12 November) producing a long
duration C4/Sf flare at 11/0705Z with an associated partial-halo
CME. The CME had an estimated plane-of-sky speed of 825 km/s, based
on SOHO/LASCO C2 images, and appeared to have a slight earth
directed component. On 12 November, activity remained at low levels
with occasional C-class flares. Regions 1339 and 1338 continued to
decay while Region 1344 continued to increase in magnetic
complexity, areal coverage, and total spot count before stabilizing
on 13 November

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
The period began under quiet to unsettled conditons on 07 November.
Activity increased on 08 November to quiet to unsettled conditions
with isolated periods of active to minor storm levels at high
latitudes. Mostly quiet levels returned on 09 November and continued
through 13 November.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 November - 12 December 2011

Solar activity is expected to be at predominately low levels with a
chance for M-class activity through the period. Old Region 1339
(N19, L=102) returns on 27 November bringing an increased
probability of M-class activity and a slight chance for an X-class
event.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at background levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet for the greater
portion of the forecast period. Unsettled conditions are possible on
26-27 November and again on 09-10 December with the return of
recurrent coronal hole high speed streams.