:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Jun 20 0550 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
13 - 19 June 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels the majority of the period
with low levels observed on 13 and 19 June due to a C3 flare at
13/0552 UTC from Region 2552 (N15, L=359, class/area Dao/150 on 11
June) and a C1 flare at 19/1158 UTC from Region 2558 (N13, L=215,
class/area Cso/030 on 19 June). The majority of the B-class activity
was caused by Region 2555 (S09, L=274, class/area Cao/080 on 17
June). No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during
the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels throughout the period and briefly reached
high levels on 19 June with a maximum flux of 1,030 pfu at 19/1640
UTC.

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to G2-Moderate storm levels.
Solar wind conditions began the period under a waning positive
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds
decreased from approximately 620 km/s to around 420 km/s by midday
on 14 June. Total field decreased from 8 nT to 4 nT. By late on 14
June, total field increased to 15 nT with the Bz component mostly
southward near -14 nT while solar wind increased to a maximum of 772
km/s at 15/0410 UTC, indicative of a co-rotating interaction region
followed by another positive polarity CH HSS. The geomagnetic field
responded with quiet to active levels on 13 June, quiet to
G2-Moderate storm levels on 14 June and quiet to G1-Minor storm
levels on 15 June. By early on 16 June, total field decreased to
around 6 nT with solar wind speeds in the 500-600 km/s range. These
conditions continued until 19 June when solar wind speeds decreased
to nominal levels. Quiet conditions were observed on 16 and 19 June
with quiet to unsettled levels on 17-18 June.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
20 June - 16 July 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels for the
forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely
on 20-22 June, 26 June-01 July, 04-07 July and again on 16 July due
to CH HSS activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels from 23-27 June, 02-03 July, 07-12 July and 14-15 July.
G1-Minor storm levels are likely on 02-03 July and 11 July due to
recurrent CH HSS activity.