:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Jul 11 0329 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
04 - 10 July 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels from 04-06 Jul followed by low
levels for the remainder of the period. Region 2561 (S16, L=344,
class/area Cro/beta on 07 Jul) produced a C5/Sn flare at 07/0756
UTC. Region 2564 (N09, L=209, class/area Dai/120 on 10 Jul) produced
all further C-class activity, the largest a C8/2f at 10/0059 UTC
with an associated Type II radio sweep (1435 km/s). No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels from 04-08 Jul and reached high levels on
09-10 Jul following several days of enhanced solar wind speeds with
a sequence of coronal holes.

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet from 04-06 Jul with a
few isolated unsettled periods under a nominal solar wind regime.
Unsettled to minor storm conditions were observed on 07-08 Jul due
to positive polarity CH HSS effects followed by unsettled to active
conditions on 09 Jul as effects began to subside. Quiet to unsettled
levels were observed on 10 Jul as CH HSS effects waned.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
11 July - 06 August 2016

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares and a slight chance for M-class flares through 24 Jul due to
flare potential from Region 2564. Activity is expected to be very
low for the remainder of the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 16-19 Jul, 22-27 Jul and 05-06 Aug
following recurrent CH HSS events. Normal to moderate levels are
expected otherwise.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach minor storm levels on
11 Jul due to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active
conditions are expected on 12 Jul as effects continue followed by
quiet to unsettled conditions on 13 Jul as effects subside. A second
CH HSS is expected to bring quiet to unsettled conditions on 14-15
Jul with active periods likely on the 14th. Mostly quiet levels are
expected on 16-18 Jul. Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated
from 19-24 Jul due to effects from a series of recurrent CH HSSs.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 25 Jul to 02 Aug with
isolated unsettled periods possible from 28-30 Jul as a few small CH
HSS events move past Earth. Minor storms are likely on 03-04 Aug due
to recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS activity, decreasing to
active conditions on 05 Aug and unsettled conditions on 06 Aug as
effects subside.