:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Aug 01 0511 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
25 - 31 July 2016

Solar activity was very low throughout the period with the exception
of a single C1 flare at 25/0909 UTC from departed Region 2567 (N05,
L=166, class/area Dki/380 on 21 July). Region 2570 (N10E24,
Axx/alpha) was the sole numbered sunspot for the majority of the
period but was unimpressive and did not contribute any significant
flaring. A 25 degree filament, centered near N01E06, was observed
lifting off of the visible disk in SDO/AIA imagery beginning at
28/1620 UTC. ENLIL analysis showed an Earth-directed component with
CME arrival expected early on 02 August.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels on 25, 28-29 July and high levels on 26-27 and 30-31
July.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels on 25 July
due to residual influence from a weak transient that arrived at
Earth on 24 July. This shock enhancement was likely associated with
flare activity from 20 July. Geomagnetic field activity was quiet on
26-27 July under a nominal solar wind regime. Quiet to active
conditions were observed on 28-29 July after the arrival of a CIR
followed by a transition into a negative polarity CH HSS. Wind
speeds reached 600 km/s while total field (Bt) measurements were as
high as 17 nT. Geomagnetic field activity returned to quiet
conditions on 30-31 July.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
01 August - 27 August 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels from 01-04
August. Low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate)
flares are expected from 05-19 August with the return of Regions
2565 and 2567. A return to very low levels is expected on 20-27
August.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels on 08, 5-15, 18-22, 25-27 August due
to recurrent CH HSS activity. Normal to moderate levels are expected
for the remainder of the forecast period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on 04-05, 10-11, 15-16, 24-25 August with G1 (Minor) storm
levels likely on 03 August due to recurrent CH HSS activity. A CME
associated with the eruptive filament from 28 July is likely to
arrive early on 02 August causing unsettled to G2 (Moderate) storm
levels. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder
of the period.