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[email protected] April 20th 07 12:22 PM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
On Apr 19, 11:47�pm, AF6AY wrote:
xxx wrote on Thu, 19 Apr 2007 07:41:27 EDT:


Due to time limitations, this post will comment on just one of Len's
claims:

* *1. *"Discovery of 'shortwaves' enabling worldwide communications:
* * * Already known by non-hobbyist technologists.


Which ones? And why weren't they *using* those shortwaves before
amateurs led the way?

*Radio amateurs
* * * were forced upwards in frequency use by politics, not
* * * pioneering. *It was fortuitous for amateurs, yes, but not
* * * necessarily of their own and objected-to at the time by
* * * amateurs.


The conventional wisdom of the early professionals in radio was that
the longer the wave, the farther it would go along the earth's
surface.
The shorter waves were considered useless, or at least unreliable, for
long-distance communication, because ionospheric propagation was not
known at the time. Long-distance non-amateur radio used waves
thousands or tens of thousands of meters long for communications
across oceans and beyond. This required enormous antennas and
high power levels, all of which were developed for the purpose. The
Alexanderson-alternator station SAQ, now a museum that operates a few
times per year, is a prime example of the professional state of the
art at the time. SAQ operates at 17.2 kHz

After 1912, amateurs were required to use waves no longer than 200
meters. They were further restricted to 1000 watts input, which was
very low power by professional long-distance-radio standards.

Most anateurs stayed right at that wavelength, following the
professionals' statements that shorter waves were less effective. Some
amateurs and non-amateurs conducted experiments at shorter wavelengths
but the results were not promising. The radio developments of World
War 1 did not materially change the situation.

In those days the "gold standard" of communication was whether the
Atlantic Ocean could be crossed. Marconi's claim of transatlantic
reception of the single letter "S" was considered a major
accomplishment at the time.

In December of 1921, the ARRL sent Paul Godley to the UK to listen for
American amateurs on 200 meters. He heard several, and not just
coastal stations. But two-way transatlantic communication eluded
amateurs on 200 meters.

In November of 1923, documented two-way transatlantic radio
communication was achieved on approximately 110 meters by
two American and one French amateur, using less than 1000 watts input.
This success led to others, with transpacific and antipodal shortwave
amateur communications following in short order.

If the effectiveness of shortwave radio was known by nonamateurs,
why didn't they use it until after amateurs pointed the way and proved
it by their pioneering success?

73 de Jim, N2EY


Michael Coslo April 20th 07 04:39 PM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
wrote:
On Apr 19, 11:47�pm, AF6AY wrote:
xxx wrote on Thu, 19 Apr 2007 07:41:27 EDT:


� �1. �"Discovery of 'shortwaves' enabling worldwide communications:
� � � Already known by non-hobbyist technologists.


Which ones? And why weren't they *using* those shortwaves before
amateurs led the way?

�Radio amateurs
� � � were forced upwards in frequency use by politics, not
� � � pioneering. �It was fortuitous for amateurs, yes, but not
� � � necessarily of their own and objected-to at the time by
� � � amateurs.


The conventional wisdom of the early professionals in radio was that
the longer the wave, the farther it would go along the earth's
surface.
The shorter waves were considered useless, or at least unreliable, for
long-distance communication, because ionospheric propagation was not
known at the time. Long-distance non-amateur radio used waves
thousands or tens of thousands of meters long for communications
across oceans and beyond. This required enormous antennas and
high power levels, all of which were developed for the purpose. The
Alexanderson-alternator station SAQ, now a museum that operates a few
times per year, is a prime example of the professional state of the
art at the time. SAQ operates at 17.2 kHz


I think you two are both correct. 8^) It looks like a difference of
basic versus applied knowledge. That the shortwaves and much much higher
frequencies were known is not in doubt. Scientists were doing research
in GHz range frequencies surprisingly early on.

Amateurs were forced to use frequencies that unknown to them or the
best minds of the time (could be both at once) discovered a lot of
unexpected characteristics of those higher frequencies.

I think that we'll find that time and again, restrictions lead to
innovation.


In November of 1923, documented two-way transatlantic radio
communication was achieved on approximately 110 meters by
two American and one French amateur, using less than 1000 watts input.
This success led to others, with transpacific and antipodal shortwave
amateur communications following in short order.

If the effectiveness of shortwave radio was known by nonamateurs,
why didn't they use it until after amateurs pointed the way and proved
it by their pioneering success?


A combination of ignorance (thinking that the higher frequencies were
of no use) and simply "betting on the wrong horse". is the answer AFAIAC.

The Amateurs were confined to that area, and the experimentally
inclined did their experiments, and viola, a lot of discoveries and
advancements were made. It is a great story, and Hams should be proud of
that part of their history.

As a more mature technology today, I wouldn't expect many more earth
shaking discoveries from Hams.

What is more likely is technological applications, such as my proposed
"texter" radio. A VHF (UHF?) text and voice enabled HT like instrument.
Text goes out using PSK31, and voice is traditional FM. Seems like an
interesting use of a certain almost unused band we all know and love
(loathe?)

While the above is only an example, in fact one that many might
consider derivative anyhow , I just offer it as a way that Amateurs
might get credit for a bit of innovation.

- 73 de Mike KB3EIA -


KH6HZ April 20th 07 07:07 PM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
"xxx" wrote:

Once upon a time, ham radio was a great source of innovation. I
remember hearing about how this or that essential device that we now
take for granted was invented / improved upon / perfected / etc. by hams
who did that sort of thing as part of their hobby. It has been a very
long time since I last heard that said. Ham radio ceased to be forward
looking and innovative and has devolved into something more akin to
stamp collecting - interesting to practitioners, useless to the world at
large.


Yes, well, the world was a very different place 50 years ago.

Neither of my parents were required to sign an employment contract which
contains a clause to the effect of "anything you invent, even if its on your
own time, we own". Yet, such clauses are routine these days in virtually
every employment contract I've signed, or seen.

Perhaps we have the lawyerification of America to partially blame?

I'm not really sure. Maybe people are less altruistic today than they were
30+ years ago. Folks today seem to be less likely to invent something and
give it away. Instead, they want to invent it, package it, sell it, and make
a living/fortune. Can't say there's anything wrong with that, really, most
people today would (I think) do the same thing.

Perhaps the popularity of ham radio is declining not because of anything to
do with ham radio itself, but instead simply a matter of the changing
society in the world as a whole.

73
kh6hz


AF6AY April 20th 07 11:56 PM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
Michael Coslo wrote on Fri, 20 Apr 2007 11:39:39 EDT

wrote:
On Apr 19, 11:47?pm, AF6AY wrote:


? ?1. ?"Discovery of 'shortwaves' enabling worldwide communications:
? ? ? Already known by non-hobbyist technologists.


Which ones? And why weren't they *using* those shortwaves before
amateurs led the way?


I think you two are both correct. 8^)


Regardless of the question marks added into my quotation (which
I never wrote with leading question marks), I will cite two
references which are obtainable:

1. Thomas H. White's early radio history web pages which include
many references and references with direct links. [try Searching
since Mr. White's website has had different names although his
content remains intact and expanded]

2. Hugh G. J. Aitken, "The Continuous Wave, Technology and
American Radio, 1900-1932," 1985, Princeton University Press.
My soft-cover copy is courtesy of Al Walston, W6MJN. In
particular Chapter 5. [University libraries might have this]

There is a lesser-known, harder-to-find overall history of
electronics (includes radio) published by McGraw-Hill's bi-
weekly subscription periodical Electronics, 17 April 1980,
a commemorative Fiftieth Anniversary edition (over 900 pp)
which takes an all-inclusive overview of all electronics from
before the first demonstration of radio in 1896 up to 1980.

From those three I've come to the conclusion that the forcing
of radio amateurs in the USA to "below 200 meters" (above 1.5
MHz) was purely and simply politics of the day. It should be
no surprise to know that radio use insofar as frequencies was
little more than chaotic before 1920, little more than that
during the entirety of the 1920s decade. Broadcasters wanted
what we now know as the "AM broadcast band" for their exclusive
use. Actually, that was a legitimate desire since broadcasters
would serve millions of citizens, not just a few thousands of
radio amateurs at the time.

Politics of the times did not stop with broadcasters versus
amateurs. For almost two decades the United States Navy
wanted to have regulatory control over all radio use! Marconi
desired a monopoly on worldwide radio use, including inroads
to control of all United States radio production and services.
The latter led a circuitous route to the establishment of the
Radio Corporation of America, originally as a sort of "patent
controller" or "quasi-repository" about radio in the USA. It
was a chaotic decade those 1920s, including many patent fights
in courts, and not much standardization in theory, components,
use, or services to citizens. See the proposal of President
Franklin Roosevelt to Congress to establish the Federal
Communications Commission to consolidate radio and telegram
regulations of 1933 and 1934, found on the FCC website.

It looks like a difference of
basic versus applied knowledge. That the shortwaves and much much higher
frequencies were known is not in doubt. Scientists were doing research
in GHz range frequencies surprisingly early on.


Heinrich Hertz did his basic research on radio waves using
what now appears to be VHF and UHF. He had no equipment to
measure such frequencies to any great precision. Lee de Forest
did some early work on transmission lines in an attempt to get
"a handle on" the behavior of higher radio waves on them. James
Clerk Maxwell postulated some physical laws and equations which
are applicable to all radio frequencies today, but he had almost
NO "test equipment" other than very simple experimental kluges
and brilliantly-applied logic to his "Laws."

The first radar experiments and first working radars worked on
VHF-UHF. It took a coordinated, consolidated group, forced by
needs of winning WWII at the "Radiation Laboratory" to really
get into the GHz frequency region.

Amateurs were forced to use frequencies that unknown to them or the
best minds of the time (could be both at once) discovered a lot of
unexpected characteristics of those higher frequencies.


As I originally wrote, it was fortuitous for radio amateurs to
be forced upward in frequency beyond 1.5 MHz. Those documented
demonstrations "got the ball rolling" for academicians and
researchers to study the ionosphere in detail. With scientific
proof, the commercial and government users took to HF in great
numbers by the 1930s.

I think that we'll find that time and again, restrictions lead to
innovation.


That's too broad a statement. Innovation and invention comes
from those individuals who dare to "push the [performance]
envelope" of most anything. The Wright Brothers weren't
exactly "restricted" in anything but laws of physics concerning
aerodynamics...so they built their own "wind tunnel" and got
basic information for themselves. But, could anyone have
thought ahead 50 years past their first heavier-than-air flight
in a wood-wire-fabric biplane, to trans-sonic speed metal
aircraft carrying more than two people?

In comparing "radio sets" of various times, examine the size,
weight, function, and features of today's amateur radio
transceivers with those of 1957. Or antennas, or test
equipment for measuring both. The advancement on both
technology and use is hand-in-hand and driven by market
forces more than anything. It is all interconnected and
one innovation can lead to others. James Burke's "Connections"
PBS-TV series is an excellent showing of the interconnection
of innovation and invention that can lead to surprising
improvement in improbably-related activies.


If the effectiveness of shortwave radio was known by nonamateurs,
why didn't they use it until after amateurs pointed the way and proved
it by their pioneering success?


A combination of ignorance (thinking that the higher frequencies were
of no use) and simply "betting on the wrong horse". is the answer AFAIAC.


The following is a quote from "Single Sideband, Principles and
Circuits" by Pappenfus, Bruene, Shoenike (Collins Radio), McGraw-
Hill 1964, paragraph 1-4, page 10:

"Since 1923 when the first r-f transatlantic SSB link was
established to England, there has been widespread use of pilot-
carrier and suppressed-carrier SSB by communications companies.
The severe static that prevailed at low frequency limited the
usefulness of the early radio links; but until the installation
of a v-f cable, no other communication circuit to Europe
approached the day-to-day reliability of the 55-kc ground-wave
signal. The frequency range below 500 kc because of its
freedom from propagation variation and signal "blackout," has
a consistency of received signal desireable in maintaining
telephone communication. However a number of disadvantages
are present that offset the signal reliability of the l-f
range. Disadvantage include high power, and need for large,
expensive antennas. The problems of vlf communications links
and l-f bands forced the expansion into and the development of
radio-communication links in the so-called short-wave bands
above the [AM] broadcast band."

Page 234 of the "Collins SSB Book" state that one of the
first applications of SSB to the HF bands was by the
Netherlands Telegraph Administration in 1934. This was
the Netherlands to the Netherlands Antilles (off the coast
of South America). [diagram of receiver on page 235]

Note: Commercial and government SSB is basically on the
USA telephony model C "carrier" frequency-multiplexed
four-voice-bandwidth system using 12 KHz bandspace.
Single-channel, 3 KHz bandspace SSB did not see great
numbers until the USAF SAC requirements were made after
WWII's end. "Pilot carrier" is in reference to a between
channel tone frequency deliberately sent as an early AFC.

Commercial and government communications users generally
plan for long service life, such service having reliability
and with known characteristics. While those may appear
conservative, those major players in communications aren't
in there for fun or experimentation. They are there for
the "long haul," both in distance and in time. Such long-
lived expectancy must be based on known information
supporting its development.

The Amateurs were confined to that area, and the experimentally
inclined did their experiments, and viola, a lot of discoveries and
advancements were made. It is a great story, and Hams should be proud of
that part of their history.


It is fine to be proud. However, history is the past.

As a more mature technology today, I wouldn't expect many more earth
shaking discoveries from Hams.


I disagree. The state of the art of all communications is
continually advancing. Radio development didn't stop prior
to WWII nor at any time up to now. For example, look at
PSK31 by G3PLX, D-Star by the JARL with support of Japanese
industry, APRS utilizing GPS downlink, all examples of post-
1980 innovation in amateur radio, done by radio amateurs for
radio amateurs.

The first reference I have to "repeaters" in radio (other
than specific radio relay sets) is in the TM for the
military AN/PRC-6 HT (includes a special cable set for
that purpose) printed about 1952. The U.S. military has not
used "repeatering" of that kind afterwards but look at the
large installation of ham repeaters in the USA of today!
Adoption and innovation of existing schemes and technology
in other radio services is no crime nor moral flaw. I think
that should be rewarded and praised equally well; some of
those adoptions/innovations are more complex and intellectual
(at least to me) than most of the early radio "pioneering" of
pre-WWII times.

With today's evidence of explosive growth in all electronics
there is a blurring between "who uses what in where" as to
both technology and use of radio. Both seem to circulate
in most radio services without regard to who was "first" but
rather can "I" [in a radio service] use it? Better yet, can
"I" adapt it for "my" radio service? Maybe, maybe not. It
might be worth a try. Falling back on "tried-and-true"
methods and holding fast to those seems counterproductive...

73, Len AF6AY


xxx April 21st 07 03:45 AM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
AF6AY wrote:
xxx wrote on Thu, 19 Apr 2007 07:41:27 EDT:


Once upon a time, ham radio was a great source of innovation. I
remember hearing about how this or that essential device that we now
take for granted was invented / improved upon / perfected / etc. by hams
who did that sort of thing as part of their hobby. It has been a very
long time since I last heard that said.


"Once upon a time" is approximately the time period prior to
World War II...the first 44 years of "radio" as a communications
medium.



I would have extended that time frame into the 1960's or even the
1970's when moonbounce experiments still made the news.


Trying to judge progress in a technology area involving
hobbyists solely by the information contained in hobbyist
publications is inaccurate, if not outright braggadocio by
hobbyists.



I'm not sure how you got the idea that I had done that.


"Radio" as a communications medium is now 111 years
old. The innovation, invention, and quantum-jumps in increases
of the communications (and radio) arts of the last 67 years have
totally eclipsed those early pioneering days done by everyone
involved with any RF emission activity. Some of the highlights:



[... deleted in the interest of brevity]


Your point is not clear. Are you claiming that since those
technologies originated with other radio services that the
contribution by hams was small or are you claiming that since hams
developed and popularized those technologies that hams' contribution
was large?


[...]
Ham radio ceased to be forward
looking and innovative and has devolved into something more akin to
stamp collecting - interesting to practitioners, useless to the world at
large.


"Xxx," to paraphrase Hans Brakob, I would "throw that out with
great force."

The activity of amateur radio is basically a hobby, an activity
done primarily for personal enjoyment...worldwide, I might add.
It is a fascinating one, a technically-challenging one, one of
use in communicating with like-minded enthusiasts, local to
worldwide. Hobbies are FUN for their participants. There is
nothing at all "wrong" with having FUN doing anything, whether
stamp collecting, rebuilding classic cars, flying model aircraft
by radio control, or being advisors for Scouts.


Radio amateurs, by and large, are not into amateur radio for the
sake of being inventors, scientific researchers, manufacturers
of radio-electronics devices, or being emergency and disaster
volunteers. They CAN, of course, as can any citizen without an
amateur radio license.



If you look at the foundational documents of ham radio (FCC Part
97, current test question pools), it is made quite clear that ham
radio exists for the primary purpose of having trained radio
operators available in case of emergency. Contributing to the
advancement of the radio art comes next. Having an enjoyable hobby is
not even mentioned.

[...]

Ham radio will not grow until and unless it is seen to provide value
to the larger community. Once, it was considered to be a source of
competitive advantage to the economy by contributing to the
technological base (a post-Sputnik point of view).


Please feel free to document all those "advantages to the
economy." I see very few such cases of the last 111 years of
"radio." What I have seen are a number of claims for same
that very conveniently "sin by omission" [of incorrect
attribution to the overall world of radio and electronics]...
something that marketeers know by the simple acronym of "PR."

My guess is that the
FCC was willing to ignore the complaints of the ARRL and the old Morse
code cultists because they (the FCC) see it that way, as well.


I must disagree with that as well. Since the FCC must regulate
ALL United States civil radio RF emissions, they are chartered
to be aware and informed of almost everything in regards to
"radio." They DO that on a technical level, including having an
Office of Engineering and Technology for their own advisement.
The FCC is aware of nearly ALL radio use, not only in the USA
but worldwide (we are globally interconnected in many
communications ways). The FCC also asks for advice on use and
technology and, as chartered by law, input from ALL citizens.
Such "input" is made available to the public at large, freely.

Anyone can fault the FCC for some alleged political bias. That
is frequent and also many-sided. Such is normal in politics,
but it is not per se some "truth." The ARRL ("my" club) is
no more a paragon of truth than any membership organization
and the FCC is not bound to 'obey' the ARRL 'advice' than any
other special-interest group.



Nevertheless, they have 'outsourced' most of the administrative
overhead of ham radio to the ARRL. If you want to talk about the
political aspects of the subject, I recently wondered, after looking
at some VE testing schedules, what the presidential candidates would
say about a situation where the work of a federal agency is performed
by a group of volunteers who work out of church basements. The
separation of church and state issue alone would provide a basis for
a great deal of debate.



The FCC made a decision on a contentious subject in amateur
radio license examinations. The FCC has the final say on who
is licensed and who is not. The public comment period was long
and over 3,700 citizens commented. The FCC took about a year
to reach a decision on the matter, then made it law by legal
means. Let us accept that and go forward.



Your comments don't follow from mine. I stated that the FCC, in
effect, 'overruled' the ARRL and the old hams when it eliminated the
code test. The key question is 'WHY did the FCC do that.' I am
convinced that the FCC perceived the code requirement as being at the
root of ham radio's failure to innovate or provide training to
subsequent generations. The FCC killed it in order to end ham radio's
decades-long stagnation.


Larry April 21st 07 03:46 AM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
AF6AY wrote in news:1177108945.448470.193430
@o5g2000hsb.googlegroups.com:

There is a lesser-known, harder-to-find overall history of
electronics (includes radio) published by McGraw-Hill's bi-
weekly subscription periodical Electronics, 17 April 1980,
a commemorative Fiftieth Anniversary edition (over 900 pp)
which takes an all-inclusive overview of all electronics from
before the first demonstration of radio in 1896 up to 1980.



Keep a sharp eye out on newsgroup alt.binaries.e-book.technical for these
kinds of books, mostly in pdf format. It is an amazing source of ebooks
on all kinds of neat subjects.

(PS - Best not read the nuclear stuff and reports posted there if you're
"in range". I didn't know there were so MANY Little Chernobyls!)

Larry
--
We're all "in range", you know....
..


AF6AY April 21st 07 06:20 AM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
On Apr 20, 6:46�pm, Larry wrote:
AF6AY wrote in news:1177108945.448470.193430
@o5g2000hsb.googlegroups.com:

There is a lesser-known, harder-to-find overall history of
* *electronics (includes radio) published by McGraw-Hill's bi-
* *weekly subscription periodical Electronics, 17 April 1980,
* *a commemorative Fiftieth Anniversary edition (over 900 pp)
* *which takes an all-inclusive overview of all electronics from
* *before the first demonstration of radio in 1896 up to 1980.


Keep a sharp eye out on newsgroup alt.binaries.e-book.technical for these
kinds of books, mostly in pdf format. *It is an amazing source of ebooks
on all kinds of neat subjects.


Thanks for the tip.

As a paid subscriber to McGraw-Hill's Electronics, I have
my own copy. I've seen it in a couple of technical libraries
but do not expect anyone to do an Acrobat trick of scanning
all those pages. I mentioned it as an overview of the entire
electronics field and think it did its job very well.

I neglected to mention Aitkins previous history, "The
Syntony of Spark." While it was good, it neglected to
cover as much of the politics of the 1920s in regards to
radio in general...in my opinion, at least.

73, Len AF6AY


[email protected] April 21st 07 04:05 PM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
On Apr 20, 6:56�pm, AF6AY wrote:
Michael Coslo wrote on Fri, 20 Apr 2007 11:39:39 EDT

wrote:
On Apr 19, 11:47?pm, AF6AY wrote:
1. "Discovery of 'shortwaves' enabling worldwide communications:
Already known by non-hobbyist technologists.


Which ones? And why weren't they *using* those shortwaves before
amateurs led the way?


* * * *I think you two are both correct. 8^)


* *Regardless of the question marks added into my quotation (which
* *I never wrote with leading question marks),


The question marks are an artifact of posting through Google
Groups. I did not add them. Sometimes Google Groups adds
them, sometimes not. They have appeared on some other
postings to you by others.

I will cite two
* *references which are obtainable:

* *1. *Thomas H. White's early radio history web pages which include
* *many references and references with direct links. *[try Searching
* *since Mr. White's website has had different names although his
* *content remains intact and expanded]

* *2. *Hugh G. J. Aitken, "The Continuous Wave, Technology and
* *American Radio, 1900-1932," 1985, Princeton University Press.
* *My soft-cover copy is courtesy of Al Walston, W6MJN. *In
* *particular Chapter 5. *[University libraries might have this]

* *There is a lesser-known, harder-to-find overall history of
* *electronics (includes radio) published by McGraw-Hill's bi-
* *weekly subscription periodical Electronics, 17 April 1980,
* *a commemorative Fiftieth Anniversary edition (over 900 pp)
* *which takes an all-inclusive overview of all electronics from
* *before the first demonstration of radio in 1896 up to 1980.


If the worldwide communications capabilities of 'shortwaves' was
"Already known by non-hobbyist technologists", as you claimed,
why weren't those "non-hobbyist technologists" actually *using*
those wavelengths?

Is there any record of non-amateur transatlantic one-way communication
on wavelengths of 200 meters or shorter with less than 1000 watts
before December of 1921? Any record of two-way
transatlantic communication on wavelengths of 200 meters or shorter
before November 27, 1923? That's when amateurs achieved those
distances.

And they weren't isolated one-time results, either. The Atlantic and
Pacific were spanned by amateurs in those years. For example, in
the Transatlantic Tests of 1922, over 300 American amateur stations
from every US radio district were heard in Europe. In the fall of
1923, over 100 American amateur stations were heard in Australia and/
or New Zealand. All on 200 meters or shorter, all with power less than
1000 watts. Where were the "non-hobbyist technologists" when all this
was going on?

* *From those three I've come to the conclusion that the forcing
* *of radio amateurs in the USA to "below 200 meters" (above 1.5
* *MHz) was purely and simply politics of the day.


Yes, it was politics. Or rather, regulation. In fact, about 1920 there
was a proposal to expand the amateur limit *downward* to 275 meters,
but early broadcasting put an end to that.

Amateurs were limited to "200 Meters And Down" because the
professionals thought those frequencies to be useless for long
distance communications. The driving force was to eliminate
interference (real or imagined) to commercial operations. That was
also the reason for the 1000 watt power limit.

*It should be
* *no surprise to know that radio use insofar as frequencies was
* *little more than chaotic before 1920, little more than that
* *during the entirety of the 1920s decade.


How "chaotic" was it, really? The radio laws of 1912 pushed amateurs
to the supposedly-useless short waves. The commercial users were
not excluded from those short waves, however.

*Broadcasters wanted
* *what we now know as the "AM broadcast band" for their exclusive
* *use. *Actually, that was a legitimate desire since broadcasters
* *would serve millions of citizens, not just a few thousands of
* *radio amateurs at the time.


Broadcasting did not really get going until about 1920. Amateurs had
been relegated to "200 Meters and Down" in 1912, eight years and a
World War earlier.

* *Politics of the times did not stop with broadcasters versus
* *amateurs.


It was not the broadcasters who pushed amateurs off the longer waves
in 1912.

*For almost two decades the United States Navy
* *wanted to have regulatory control over all radio use! *Marconi
* *desired a monopoly on worldwide radio use, including inroads
* *to control of all United States radio production and services.
* *The latter led a circuitous route to the establishment of the
* *Radio Corporation of America, originally as a sort of "patent
* *controller" or "quasi-repository" about radio in the USA. *It
* *was a chaotic decade those 1920s, including many patent fights
* *in courts, and not much standardization in theory, components,
* *use, or services to citizens. *See the proposal of President
* *Franklin Roosevelt to Congress to establish the Federal
* *Communications Commission to consolidate radio and telegram
* *regulations of 1933 and 1934, found on the FCC website.


That's all very interesting, but it has little to do with the fact
that it was
amateurs who pioneered the "shortwaves", not "non-hobbyist
technologists".

It looks like a difference of
basic versus applied knowledge. That the shortwaves and much much higher
frequencies were known is not in doubt. Scientists were doing research
in GHz range frequencies surprisingly early on.


* *Heinrich Hertz did his basic research on radio waves using
* *what now appears to be VHF and UHF. *He had no equipment to
* *measure such frequencies to any great precision. *Lee de Forest
* *did some early work on transmission lines in an attempt to get
* *"a handle on" the behavior of higher radio waves on them. *James
* *Clerk Maxwell postulated some physical laws and equations which
* *are applicable to all radio frequencies today, but he had almost
* *NO "test equipment" other than very simple experimental kluges
* *and brilliantly-applied logic to his "Laws."


But in terms of pioneering the use of those waves for communication,
amateurs were the leading edge.

* *The first radar experiments and first working radars worked on
* *VHF-UHF. *It took a coordinated, consolidated group, forced by
* *needs of winning WWII at the "Radiation Laboratory" to really
* *get into the GHz frequency region.


Long *after* the 1920s.

Amateurs were forced to use frequencies that unknown to them or the
best minds of the time (could be both at once) discovered a lot of
unexpected characteristics of those higher frequencies.


* *As I originally wrote, it was fortuitous for radio amateurs to
* *be forced upward in frequency beyond 1.5 MHz. *Those documented
* *demonstrations "got the ball rolling" for academicians and
* *researchers to study the ionosphere in detail. *With scientific
* *proof, the commercial and government users took to HF in great
* *numbers by the 1930s.


Amateur use was more than mere demonstrations.

* *In comparing "radio sets" of various times, examine the size,
* *weight, function, and features of today's amateur radio
* *transceivers with those of 1957. *Or antennas, or test
* *equipment for measuring both. *


The basics of many of them are the same in some cases and very
different in others.

The advancement on both
* *technology and use is hand-in-hand and driven by market
* *forces more than anything. *It is all interconnected and
* *one innovation can lead to others. *James Burke's "Connections"
* *PBS-TV series is an excellent showing of the interconnection
* *of innovation and invention that can lead to surprising
* *improvement in improbably-related activies.


Agreed. The transistor, for example, was invented/discovered by Bell
Labs researchers looking to build a switch, not an amplifier.

If the effectiveness of shortwave radio was known by nonamateurs,
why didn't they use it until after amateurs pointed the way and proved
it by their pioneering success?


* * * *A combination of ignorance (thinking that the higher frequencies were
of no use) and simply "betting on the wrong horse". is the answer AFAIAC.


* *The following is a quote from "Single Sideband, Principles and
* *Circuits" by Pappenfus, Bruene, Shoenike (Collins Radio), McGraw-
* *Hill 1964, paragraph 1-4, page 10:


The first two of those were well-known amateurs, too.

* *"Since 1923 when the first r-f transatlantic SSB link was
* *established to England, there has been widespread use of pilot-
* *carrier and suppressed-carrier SSB by communications companies.
* *The severe static that prevailed at low frequency limited the
* *usefulness of the early radio links; but until the installation
* *of a v-f cable, no other communication circuit to Europe
* *approached the day-to-day reliability of the 55-kc ground-wave
* *signal. *The frequency range below 500 kc because of its
* *freedom from propagation variation and signal "blackout," has
* *a consistency of received signal desireable in maintaining
* *telephone communication. *However a number of disadvantages
* *are present that offset the signal reliability of the l-f
* *range. *Disadvantage include high power, and need for large,
* *expensive antennas. *The problems of vlf communications links
* *and l-f bands forced the expansion into and the development of
* *radio-communication links in the so-called short-wave bands
* *above the [AM] broadcast band."

* *Page 234 of the "Collins SSB Book" state that one of the
* *first applications of SSB to the HF bands was by the
* *Netherlands Telegraph Administration in 1934. *


That's 11 years after amateurs showed the usefulness of HF for long
distance communications.

There were amateurs using SSB voice in 1934, too. Ray Moore, W6DEI,
and a handful of others were on the amateur bands with SSB
then.

This was
* *the Netherlands to the Netherlands Antilles (off the coast
* *of South America). *[diagram of receiver on page 235]

* *Note: *Commercial and government SSB is basically on the
* *USA telephony model C "carrier" frequency-multiplexed
* *four-voice-bandwidth system using 12 KHz bandspace.
* *Single-channel, 3 KHz bandspace SSB did not see great
* *numbers until the USAF SAC requirements were made after
* *WWII's end. *"Pilot carrier" is in reference to a between
* *channel tone frequency deliberately sent as an early AFC.

* *Commercial and government communications users generally
* *plan for long service life, such service having reliability
* *and with known characteristics. *While those may appear
* *conservative, those major players in communications aren't
* *in there for fun or experimentation. *They are there for
* *the "long haul," both in distance and in time. *Such long-
* *lived expectancy must be based on known information
* *supporting its development.


So it took amateurs to discover the usefulness of the shortwaves. That
usefulness wasn't "already known to non-hobbyist technologists".

The Amateurs were confined to that area, and the experimentally
inclined did their experiments, and viola, a lot of discoveries and
advancements were made. It is a great story, and Hams should be proud of
that part of their history.


* *It is fine to be proud. *However, history is the past.


It's important to be accurate about the history, though.

*As a more mature technology today, I wouldn't expect many more earth
shaking discoveries from Hams.


* *I disagree. *The state of the art of all communications is
* *continually advancing. *Radio development didn't stop prior
* *to WWII nor at any time up to now. *For example, look at
* *PSK31 by G3PLX, D-Star by the JARL with support of Japanese
* *industry, APRS utilizing GPS downlink, all examples of post-
* *1980 innovation in amateur radio, done by radio amateurs for
* *radio amateurs.


So amateurs continue to innovate and discover, even today.

73 de Jim, N2EY


AF6AY April 23rd 07 02:31 AM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
xxx wrote on Fri, 20 Apr 2007 22:45:26 EDT

AF6AY wrote:
xxx wrote on Thu, 19 Apr 2007 07:41:27 EDT:


"Once upon a time" is approximately the time period prior to
World War II...the first 44 years of "radio" as a communications
medium.


I would have extended that time frame into the 1960's or even the
1970's when moonbounce experiments still made the news.


The first-ever successful moonbounce was done by the U.S.
Army Signal Corps in the forties right after end of WWII.
The Army dubbed that experiment "Project Diana." That
was two decades prior to the 1960s.

My choice of the first 44 years versus the last 67 years
may seem arbitrary but the Second World War was a decided
changeover time in technology of all electronics, including
that small subset of it called radio.

Your point is not clear. Are you claiming that since those
technologies originated with other radio services that the
contribution by hams was small or are you claiming that since hams
developed and popularized those technologies that hams' contribution
was large?


I do not claim anything. I summarized the major points of
technology untilized in amateur radio during the last 67
years of radio's existance. In the first 44 years of radio,
radio itself was considered the high-tech application of
electronics. The vacuum tube had some applications in audio
amplification and specialized instruments but "radio" for
one-way or two-way communications was favored. Radio then
was noted by the public as primarily for broadcasting but
the public were also aware of the "ham radio operator" in
this high-tech-of-its-day field.

After WWII, based on the necessities of expanding the
technology needs of war, electronics began spreading far
and wide, using circuits and systems rare or unheard-of
by the public prior to WWII: Television, "high-Fi" music
systems, magnetic tape recording (in the home as well as
in entertainment industry), FM broadcasting as an adjunct
to home music systems, electronic flash units for photo-
graphy, photoelectric systems for security and warning,
intercom systems, dictating machines. That was prior to
the invention of the transistor and the true start of the
solid-state era in electronics.

The transistor, various junction diode types, the
integrated circuit, then the large-scale-integrated
circuit semiconductor structures' availability can be
likened to a megaton explosion of applications and
increases in electronics use in our daily lives, from
medicine and health, to accounting and automatic control,
to all manner of consumer electronics not practically
possible prior to WWII. "Radio" per se took a back seat
in applications in the whole of the electronics
industry's design and development efforts. That's
neither good nor bad, simply that the possible number of
applications for all electronics taking advantage of
solid-state components has been almost overwhelming in
quantity and scope. That continues today.

That radio communications equipment design has adopted
many techniques and components used in other areas of
electronics should not be a detriment. Some non-radio
applications "borrowed" from radio design and one even
preceded radio use: Frequency-multiplexed multi-channel
carrier systems for long-distance wired telephony, also
known as Single Sideband. :-)

A microprocessor or microcontroller is entirely digital
in operation, yet is applied to analog radio now almost
universally. That was not possible prior to 1970,
yet amateur radio designs from off-the-shelf today
nearly all use them for a large variety of functions,
everything from HTs to top-of-the-line HF DX machines
down to test equipment. It ENABLES many functions not
available prior to WWII designs and its substitutes for
old design funcions are superior in operation.

Electronics (including radio) does considerable "cross-
pollination" of circuits and subsystems from one
specialty area to another. That is good rather than
bad. "Radio" has lost its specific nature of exclusivity
in structure of all-analog circuits. The vacuum tube is
almost obsolete for new radios, surviving only in high-
power RF amplifiers for amateur, commercial, and broad-
casting use. Even those are getting competition from
high-frequency power transistor modular architectures.
The cathode-ray tube is going that way, replaced with
solid-state LCD, TFT, Plasma flat display screens, not
just in television but also in oscillography and small
instrumentation plus consumer applications like gas
ranges, microwaves, and lawn sprinkler controllers.
About the only area of vacuum tubes not quite (yet)
replaced by solid-state are high-sensitivity photo-
multipliers and night observation devices. Even those
are seeing competition now.

Innovation and invention today depends more on the
adaptation of existing components and subsystems and
putting them together than outright invention-from-
scratch. Even the U.S. Patent Office is aware of that.
My single patent grant in 1974 was #3,848,191. GAP
Antenna Products got one in 1997 as #5,592,183 (reading
from a GAP pamphlet). Nearly 2 million Patents granted
in only about 25 years. :-)

Radio per se is not much involved in just trying to get
a handle on how the whole thing works. That was needed
in its first four decades. Messrs Hartley, Colpitts,
and Pierce gave us basic oscillators necessary to start
generating RF but later came Butler and others with
variations using 3rd, 5th, even 7th overtone crystal
controlled oscillators, plus the Varian brothers'
Klystron and the original Magnetron (from the UK).
Would we have a microwave oven in nearly every kitchen
today if the magnetron had not been invented? :-)

BTW, the most-used oscillator circuit of today is based
on the CMOS inverter with feedback through a quartz
crystal or other resonator. No name associated with it.
Every microprocessor has such a clock oscillator, active
devices usually built-in.


If you look at the foundational documents of ham radio (FCC Part
97, current test question pools), it is made quite clear that ham
radio exists for the primary purpose of having trained radio
operators available in case of emergency. Contributing to the
advancement of the radio art comes next. Having an enjoyable hobby is
not even mentioned.


I have a 1997 complete 5-volume set of Title 47 Code of Federal
Regulations and the current copy of Part 97, Title 47 C.F.R.
Nowhere is the word "hobby" written in those regulations. That
is de jure. De facto is that amateur radio is, by and large, a
hobby radio activity, done for personal reasons and not for
monetary compensation. The FCC is aware of that, the ARRL is
aware of that, the IARU is aware of that, hundreds of different
nation's administrations are aware of that.

I also have a complete set of the current NCVEC Question Pools,
obtained from www.ncvec.org directly; such are not found in
Part 97...but should be available through any of the many VECs.

It was not clear to me that my amateur radio test taken and
passed on 25 February 2007 was for an Amateur Emergency Radio
Operator. I was already a General Radiotelephone Operator
(Commercial) since taking and passing my First Class Radio-
telephone (Commercial) operator license in 1956. Prior to
that the United States Army had trained me to operate and
maintain radio communications equipment on HF, VHF, UHF, and
microwave bands. I've already used my First 'Phone/GROL in
other radio services. In various Parts of Title 47 C.F.R.,
the FCC specifically states that any emergency situation
involving safety of life, no license is required to use a
radio to seek help. Why would I have gotten an Amateur Radio
license to be an emergency operator? I could have joined
the Los Angeles Auxilliary Communications Service directly
or even the California (state) Auxilliary Communications
Service (they don't require any license at all). The test
session was in an L.A. ACS station building, formerly a
small fire house for the LAFD. I got my Amateur Radio
Operator license for use in a personal hobby. That isn't
against the law or even unpatriotic.


Your comments don't follow from mine. I stated that the FCC, in
effect, 'overruled' the ARRL and the old hams when it eliminated the
code test. The key question is 'WHY did the FCC do that.' I am
convinced that the FCC perceived the code requirement as being at the
root of ham radio's failure to innovate or provide training to
subsequent generations. The FCC killed it in order to end ham radio's
decades-long stagnation.


You are welcome to your opinion. Seventeen years ago the
FCC answered a public request when it issued a Notice of
Proposed Rule Making on the creation of the no-code-test
Technician class license. It said then that the Commission
did not feel a test for Morse Code skill/comprehension was
necessary in its regulatory position of determining whether
or not an applicant was worthy of being granted an amateur
radio license. A copy is available at www.nocode.org as
FCC 90-53. Nine years later in Report and Order 99-412
('Restructuring') the Commission stated nearly the same when
it dropped all Morse Code test rates to 5 words per minute
equivalent. By far, the largest and fastest growing U.S.
Amateur Radio Service license class has been the no-code-test
Technician class. The peak in number of amateur licenses
granted occurred in 2003.

I see all of that as public demand, not to "support" amateur
radio. From the Communications Act of 1934 to the
Telecommunications Act of 1996 (both Laws of Congress) the
FCC is obliged to regulate civil communications services of
the United States. It is not obliged to support any one
radio service over and above any other.

73, Len AF6AY


Michael Coslo April 23rd 07 06:35 PM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
KH6HZ wrote:

Yes, well, the world was a very different place 50 years ago.

Neither of my parents were required to sign an employment contract which
contains a clause to the effect of "anything you invent, even if its on your
own time, we own". Yet, such clauses are routine these days in virtually
every employment contract I've signed, or seen.

Perhaps we have the lawyerification of America to partially blame?


I signed one of those at my first technical job clear back in 1972, and
one for every employer since then. As far as I can tell, all of the
forms are valid forever, and if I invent something profitable enough,
all of my previous employers are going to go after it.

I don't think that we have become more greedy or self serving over the
years. I'm more inclined to think a nostalgia effect is at work.


I'm not really sure. Maybe people are less altruistic today than they were
30+ years ago.


In my field, I find many people writing and giving away software. I
think how much altruism exists depends on a person's outlook.



Perhaps the popularity of ham radio is declining not because of anything to
do with ham radio itself, but instead simply a matter of the changing
society in the world as a whole.



What do you base the thesis of declining popularity on?

- 73 de Mike KB3EIA -


KH6HZ April 23rd 07 07:41 PM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
"Michael Coslo" wrote:

I don't think that we have become more greedy or self serving over the
years. I'm more inclined to think a nostalgia effect is at work.


Perhaps. However, as a youth I can recall numerous stories of how Joe Smith
was a chemical engineer at some company, and invented Substance X in his
garage while piddling around at home.

It is often said that the best job you can have is one that is also a hobby.
If ham radio is your hobby, and you work as an electrical engineer by day,
can you really "invent" something for ham radio that your employer wouldn't
have some type of claim against?


In my field, I find many people writing and giving away software. I think
how much altruism exists depends on a person's outlook.


What real altruism exists in software short of Linux-based products?

Granted, there is a large amount of 'shareware' out there, but a sizeable
percentage of it is simply crippleware designed to get you to upgrade to the
'commercial' version.


What do you base the thesis of declining popularity on?


Licensed amateurs as a whole in the US has been declining for 3+ years now.
The rate of growth in Japanese amateurs has been anemic, under 1%, for the
past 5+ years.
UK licenses remain fairly consistent with their peak numbers 12 years ago,
although short-term trends do see an increase.
Australian licensees have been a 10+% dropoff over the past decade.

All of these observations support a generic claim that interest in ham radio
is lessening.


AF6AY April 24th 07 05:11 AM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
On Apr 23, 10:41?am, "KH6HZ" wrote:
"Michael Coslo" wrote:


In my field, I find many people writing and giving away software. I think
how much altruism exists depends on a person's outlook.


What real altruism exists in software short of Linux-based products?

Granted, there is a large amount of 'shareware' out there, but a sizeable
percentage of it is simply crippleware designed to get you to upgrade to the
'commercial' version.


Go to Linear Technology (the semiconductor company). They
will let anyone download LTSpice, a fully functional, operating
SPICE suite, complete with component library and schematic
drawing function that will automatically create a SPICE netlist.
The manual for it is a separate download, also free to anyone.
Not shareware, not some "crippleware designed to make one
upgrade." A fully working SPICE program, for nothing. Ideal
for amateur radio homebrew projects to check out any
circuit before building it in hardware. LTSpice has been out
for about a year, already has some hobby groups talking
about it, using it, with tips on how to use it for unusual
circuits and applications.

Licensed amateurs as a whole in the US has been declining for 3+ years now.


Not really any big decline. Newcomers (never before licensed)
are filling in the gaps left by expirations. Check it out on
www.hamdata.com, right on the home page.

All of these observations support a generic claim that interest in ham radio
is lessening.


The drop of Ham Radio, 73 magazines happened in between
1990 and about 2003 due to lack of advertising space sales,
particularly among the "Big3" (Yaesu, Icom, Kenwood). Folks
tend to ignore those same Big3 are also engaged in making
radios for businesses and governments. They probably make
more money in that market than in the amateur radio field.

However, in the periodicals that survive there continue to be
new ham radio models being made and advertised, certain
models promoted with extras (such as Icom). Antenna
makers are still "up" and so are the hundreds of smaller
businesses selling peripheral equipment and add-ons. I'd
say that the interest in amateur radio is increasing, not the
opposite.

There might even be a trend towards more newcomers
entering than ever before, some hints of that already shown
in numbers on www.hamdata.com.

73, Len AF6AY


Michael Coslo April 25th 07 02:35 PM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
AF6AY wrote:
On Apr 23, 10:41?am, "KH6HZ" wrote:
"Michael Coslo" wrote:


In my field, I find many people writing and giving away software. I think
how much altruism exists depends on a person's outlook.

What real altruism exists in software short of Linux-based products?

Granted, there is a large amount of 'shareware' out there, but a sizeable
percentage of it is simply crippleware designed to get you to upgrade to the
'commercial' version.


Go to Linear Technology (the semiconductor company). They
will let anyone download LTSpice, a fully functional, operating
SPICE suite, complete with component library and schematic
drawing function that will automatically create a SPICE netlist.
The manual for it is a separate download, also free to anyone.
Not shareware, not some "crippleware designed to make one
upgrade." A fully working SPICE program, for nothing. Ideal
for amateur radio homebrew projects to check out any
circuit before building it in hardware. LTSpice has been out
for about a year, already has some hobby groups talking
about it, using it, with tips on how to use it for unusual
circuits and applications.


On my computers, I use the OpenOffice Suite (mostly WP and their
spreadsheet)

I use Digipan and a whole host of other Ham radio software.

Let's not forget N1MM contest logger.

A number of people produce software for the PAQSO party.

All these things share one thing in common. They are free for the download.

Even programs such as EZNEC, while charging for the full version, have
a perfectly functional demo version with the biggest limitation being
the number of "elements" you can use in it.

If that isn't enough, then 4NEC2 is free.

Altruism does indeed exist.

Licensed amateurs as a whole in the US has been declining for 3+ years now.


Not really any big decline. Newcomers (never before licensed)
are filling in the gaps left by expirations. Check it out on
www.hamdata.com, right on the home page.


The "big drop-off" is largely being replaced. While we can discuss the
reason that it happened - it did happen. I suspect that we will get to
that earlier level at some point.

Perhaps the old Tech license was a bit of a dead end?


All of these observations support a generic claim that interest in ham radio
is lessening.


The drop of Ham Radio, 73 magazines happened in between
1990 and about 2003 due to lack of advertising space sales,
particularly among the "Big3" (Yaesu, Icom, Kenwood). Folks
tend to ignore those same Big3 are also engaged in making
radios for businesses and governments. They probably make
more money in that market than in the amateur radio field.

However, in the periodicals that survive there continue to be
new ham radio models being made and advertised, certain
models promoted with extras (such as Icom). Antenna
makers are still "up" and so are the hundreds of smaller
businesses selling peripheral equipment and add-ons. I'd
say that the interest in amateur radio is increasing, not the
opposite.


Agreed. Certainly it is in my area. There are some who would dispute
the success we are having in our area (we are running at a 2+ percent
increase after factoring in attrition for well over a year now) as a
fluke. I might respectfully suggest a new approach. 8^)


There might even be a trend towards more newcomers
entering than ever before, some hints of that already shown
in numbers on www.hamdata.com.


The new hams in our area are good people, and are becoming active and
well mannered hams.

- 73 de Mike KB3EIA -


[email protected] April 26th 07 05:35 AM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
On Apr 10, 2:22 am, "Dee Flint" wrote:


Changes in requirements don't have any effect
when the potential recruits have no idea that the hobby even exists.


I may have to concede that point, Dee.

Here is a recent quote ( http://tinyurl.com/29e856 ) by the CEO of
Radio Shack.

He said: "Even the name 'RadioShack'-can you imagine two less
appealing words placed next to one another?" Day said. "What is that,
some kind of World War II terminology? Are ham radio operators still
around, even? Aren't we in the digital age?"

Yes, from the CEO of Radio Shack!

Oh, well!

73, de Hans, K0HB



[email protected] April 26th 07 11:49 AM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
On Apr 25, 9:35�am, Michael Coslo wrote:
AF6AY wrote:
On Apr 23, 10:41?am, "KH6HZ" wrote:
"Michael Coslo" wrote:


In my field, I find many people writing and giving away software. I t

hink
how much altruism exists depends on a person's outlook.
What real altruism exists in software short of Linux-based products?


Granted, there is a large amount of 'shareware' out there, but a sizea

ble
percentage of it is simply crippleware designed to get you to upgrade

to the
'commercial' version.


Go to Linear Technology (the semiconductor company). They
will let anyone download LTSpice, a fully functional, operating
SPICE suite, complete with component library and schematic
drawing function that will automatically create a SPICE netlist.
The manual for it is a separate download, also free to anyone.
Not shareware, not some "crippleware designed to make one
upgrade." A fully working SPICE program, for nothing. Ideal
for amateur radio homebrew projects to check out any
circuit before building it in hardware. LTSpice has been out
for about a year, already has some hobby groups talking
about it, using it, with tips on how to use it for unusual
circuits and applications.


On my computers, I use the OpenOffice Suite (mostly WP an

d their
spreadsheet)

I use Digipan and a whole host of other Ham radio softwar

e.

Let's not forget N1MM contest logger.

A number of people produce software for the PAQSO party.


Reg Edwards' (G4FGQ) whole selection of design software

G4FON's Morse Code learning software, to name just one of many

Older versions of Spectrogram, an audio spectrum analyzer software
with many uses in the ham shack.

Several free online Amateur Radio practice test websites

All these things share one thing in common. They
are free for the download.

Even programs such as EZNEC, while charging for the full

version, have
a perfectly functional demo version with the biggest limitation being
the number of "elements" you can use in it.

If that isn't enough, then 4NEC2 is free.

Altruism does indeed exist.

Licensed amateurs as a whole in the US has been declining for 3+ years

now.

Not really any big decline. Newcomers (never before licensed)
are filling in the gaps left by expirations. Check it out on
www.hamdata.com, right on the home page.


The "big drop-off" is largely being replaced. While we ca

n discuss the
reason that it happened - it did happen. I suspect that we will get to
that earlier level at some point.

One factor I have not seem mentioned recently is the effect of rules
changes other than license test requirements on the number of hams.

For example, in the USA, the license term was doubled from 5 to 10
years back in 1984, and the 'grace period' doubled from one to two
years. One effect of these changes was that there were no expirations
at all from 1989 to 1994. Another was that the number of totally-
inactive-and-not-coming-back hams still shown on the database was
increased.

Another rules change that effects expirations is the vanity callsign
program. Unlike address changes, upgrades, etc., getting a vanity call
also generates a renewal. This may profoundly affect the distribution
of license expiration dates.

With the license term at ten years and the grace period at two years,
it can take a pretty long time for the actual loss of amateurs to show
up in the totals.

It is also important to know the details of what is included in the
numbers being cited. The raw numbers of licenses listed by
hamdata.com, for example, include both current licenses and those in
the grace period, while other sources do not include grace period
licensees.

Perhaps the old Tech license was a bit of a dead end?

Perhaps. However, if so, it should be noted that only a small
percentage of them have upgraded in the past 60 days.

There is also a fairly large variation in the license totals over
fairly short periods of time. For example, the total number of
current FCC-issued amateur licenses held by individuals was:

654,680 on Feb 22, 2007 (just before rules changed)
654,265 on Mar 5, 2007
654,160 on Mar 13, 2007
654,816 on Mar 14, 2007
655,025 on Mar 16, 2007
654,094 on Mar 19, 2007
655,136 on Apr 6, 2007
655,233 on Apr 12, 2007
654,649 on Apr 16, 2007
654,540 on Apr 24, 2007

Depending on which dates are compared, all sorts of short-term trends
could appear to be happening. For example, from March 13 to April 12
the total grew by 1073 - more than 3 per day! But from April 12 to
April 24, they declined by 693 - more than 5 per day. Of course on a
longer baseline things will even out; the point is that there are
large short-term variations.

All of these observations support a generic claim that interest in ham

radio
is lessening.


The drop of Ham Radio, 73 magazines happened in between
1990 and about 2003 due to lack of advertising space sales,
particularly among the "Big3" (Yaesu, Icom, Kenwood). Folks
tend to ignore those same Big3 are also engaged in making
radios for businesses and governments. They probably make
more money in that market than in the amateur radio field.


However, in the periodicals that survive there continue to be
new ham radio models being made and advertised, certain
models promoted with extras (such as Icom). Antenna
makers are still "up" and so are the hundreds of smaller
businesses selling peripheral equipment and add-ons. I'd
say that the interest in amateur radio is increasing, not the
opposite.


Agreed. Certainly it is in my area. There are some who wo

uld dispute
the success we are having in our area (we are running at a 2+ percent
increase after factoring in attrition for well over a year now) as a
fluke. I might respectfully suggest a new approach. 8^)


"If it happens, it must be possible"

There might even be a trend towards more newcomers
entering than ever before, some hints of that already shown
in numbers onwww.hamdata.com.


The new hams in our area are good people, and are becomin

g active and
well mannered hams.

IMHO, that's more important than how many.

Looking back over the past decade or so, I see the following trends:

- The number of US hams grew in the early 1990s but began a slow
decline in the late 1990s.
- The number of US hams grew in the early 2000s (2000-2003, after the
rules changes that went into effect in April 2000) but the growth was
not sustained and began a slow decline in the mid-2003
- The recent changes (Feb 2007) appear to have stopped the decline in
the short term.
- Both the 2000 and 2007 rules changes had the effect of a far greater
number of existing hams upgrading than new hams joining.

73 de Jim, N2EY


[email protected] April 26th 07 03:46 PM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
On Apr 26, 4:35 am, wrote:
On Apr 10, 2:22 am, "Dee Flint" wrote:



Changes in requirements don't have any effect
when the potential recruits have no idea that the hobby even exists.


I may have to concede that point, Dee.


Uhhhhh, well, no, I guess I don't concede the point (GULP)! We may be
the unwitting butt of the Onion joke, but at least even THEY know
about us! We're famous!

Sunnuvagun!

73, de Hans, K0HB




AF6AY April 27th 07 02:25 AM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
Michael Coslo wrote on Wed, 25 Apr 2007 09:35:43 EDT
AF6AY wrote:
On Apr 23, 10:41?am, "KH6HZ" wrote:
"Michael Coslo" wrote:


In my field, I find many people writing and giving away software. I think
how much altruism exists depends on a person's outlook.
What real altruism exists in software short of Linux-based products?


Granted, there is a large amount of 'shareware' out there, but a sizeable
percentage of it is simply crippleware designed to get you to upgrade to the
'commercial' version.


Go to Linear Technology (the semiconductor company). They
will let anyone download LTSpice, a fully functional, operating
SPICE suite, complete with component library and schematic
drawing function that will automatically create a SPICE netlist.
The manual for it is a separate download, also free to anyone.
Not shareware, not some "crippleware designed to make one
upgrade." A fully working SPICE program, for nothing. Ideal
for amateur radio homebrew projects to check out any
circuit before building it in hardware. LTSpice has been out
for about a year, already has some hobby groups talking
about it, using it, with tips on how to use it for unusual
circuits and applications.


On my computers, I use the OpenOffice Suite (mostly WP and their
spreadsheet)


I was unaware that WordPerfect had any "reader" or equivalent. :-)
My upgrade from WP 3.1 to WP 8 came about, I think, from some
bean-counter's mistake at a Fry's Electronics sale. For a mere $85
I got the "8" Upgrade plus "Dragon Naturally Speaking" (with nice
little
single-earphone and boom mike headset). One has to keep eyes and
ears and mind open for legitimate bargains...they don't happen often.

I use Digipan and a whole host of other Ham radio software.

Let's not forget N1MM contest logger.

A number of people produce software for the PAQSO party.

All these things share one thing in common. They are free for the download.


Yes! And there's no need to change/include other Operating Systems
on
a PC!

Linear Technology Corporation isn't all that involved with altruism.
Their
LTSpice was originally configured to simulate their switching power
supply
ICs in order to boost their sales of same. Its first name
was "SwitcherCAD." However, they did change their SPICE "envelope" to
allow drawing-listing-analyzing-simulating any kind of discrete-
component
circuit. Their schematic-drawing and auto-netlist creation is not one
of
intrinsic beauty but it works just as good as those pay-for-everything
SPICE packages. It can be used as an ARRL Radio Designer
replacement or equivalent. At no cost.


Licensed amateurs as a whole in the US has been declining for 3+ years now.


Not really any big decline. Newcomers (never before licensed)
are filling in the gaps left by expirations. Check it out on
www.hamdata.com, right on the home page.


The "big drop-off" is largely being replaced. While we can discuss the
reason that it happened - it did happen. I suspect that we will get to
that earlier level at some point.

Perhaps the old Tech license was a bit of a dead end?


I don't think so. The "old" Technician class which became "Technician
Plus" in 1991 did serve its purpose in 1990 and before. Of course the
Tech Plus was no longer issued as of 2000, but then neither were
Advanced and Novice.

The Novice class license was conceived, lobbied-for by those who
thought
U.S. Amateur Radio would always have morse code as it epitome of
skills
and all should "do their time" in the "apprenticeship" of old-style
operating
as if amateur radio was a union, guild or special craft occupation.
Of
course it wasn't, despite all the urging and PR to "begin at the
beginning
and work, work, work your way up" by some. :-(

The "old" Tech and the new Tech were specifically banished from HF
until
July of 2003 and the changes to S25 (nearly entire re-write) at
WRC-03.
They served their original purpose well enough, I think, which was to
open a class of license for true experimenters. What really happened
was that the Techs (both kinds) found they could be IN amateur radio
and
it wasn't burdened by all the old morse code requirements (de jure and
de
facto). Even with the antipathy of old-timers ("shack on a belt" type
of
remarks, etc.) the Techs did their own thing on VHF-UHF and found it
as
much or more fun than what they "were supposed to do" on HF.

It should be fairly obvious that Techs (both kinds) made up very, very
close
to half of all licensees in U.S. amateur radio prior to 23 February
2007. It
was the "entry" class for so many and many enjoyed that so much they
didn't all switch to other classes. All that while the original
"entry" class of
Novice licensees were dwindling.


However, in the periodicals that survive there continue to be
new ham radio models being made and advertised, certain
models promoted with extras (such as Icom). Antenna
makers are still "up" and so are the hundreds of smaller
businesses selling peripheral equipment and add-ons. I'd
say that the interest in amateur radio is increasing, not the
opposite.


Agreed. Certainly it is in my area. There are some who would dispute
the success we are having in our area (we are running at a 2+ percent
increase after factoring in attrition for well over a year now) as a
fluke. I might respectfully suggest a new approach. 8^)


In the last week I've received new catalogs from AES, HRO, Texas
Towers, MFJ in the mail. It's either a grand conspiracy of marketing
or just a lot of ham goodies being made and sold. :-)


There might even be a trend towards more newcomers
entering than ever before, some hints of that already shown
in numbers on www.hamdata.com.


The new hams in our area are good people, and are becoming active and
well mannered hams.


I didn't know that new folks were "ill-mannerred." I've heard a lot
of old
folks say they were but, as one of the 'old folk' I have yet to see
that
for myself. :-)

73, Len AF6AY


[email protected] April 27th 07 11:36 AM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
On Apr 26, 11:27�pm, Mike Coslo wrote:
wrote grou

ps.com:

Reg Edwards' (G4FGQ) whole selection of design software


Yoiks! I can't believe that I forgot Reg (at least his software) Thanks
for that addition, Jim


He's just one example that came to mind. There are lots more.

G4FON's Morse Code learning software, to name just one of many
Older versions of Spectrogram, an audio spectrum analyzer software
with many uses in the ham shack.
Several free online Amateur Radio practice test websites


All good additions, Jim

Thanks. And they're just a drop in the bucket.

The "big drop-off" is largely being replaced. While we ca

n discuss the
reason that it happened - it did happen. I suspect that we will get
to that earlier level at some point.

One factor I have not seem mentioned recently is the effect of rules
changes other than license test requirements on the number of hams.


For example, in the USA, the license term was doubled from 5 to 10
years back in 1984, and the 'grace period' doubled from one to two
years.


This is truly not an exact science! The licencing qualifi

cations
and expiry conditions have been quite dynamic.


Exactly.

Another rules change that effects expirations is the vanity callsign
program. Unlike address changes, upgrades, etc., getting a vanity call
also generates a renewal. This may profoundly affect the distribution
of license expiration dates.


With the license term at ten years and the grace period at two years,
it can take a pretty long time for the actual loss of amateurs to show
up in the totals.


Indeed. While I would presonally like my license to remai

n in
effect forever without renewal,(hehe) a shorter renewal cycle would be of
great utility in keeping track of how we are doing in retention of Hams.


There was a time when you could get a renewal almost any time in the
license term if some other change was happening, like an upgrade or an
address change. From 1967 to 1983, even though the license term was 5
years, I only renewed once, because of all the upgrades and address
changes I made in that time.

It is also important to know the details of what is included in the
numbers being cited.


It is a problem with all statistics/numbers.


Yes, but too often those making a statement can neglect to note what
is included in their totals.

What I have noticed in my area is that the upgrades from

Tech to
General has been mostly been by recently licensed Techs.


That says (to me) that a lot of newer folks are more interestd in
upgrading.

I would venture that there is not much use in trying to pick
up anything from our numbers except from long term statistics (in spite
of my yapping about the success we are having in my area). on a weekly
basis, nothing real can be determined.


The success in your area is simply one data point you have observed.
You're not saying it's a widespread trend, just that it's what you
have observed.

The day-to-day variations are so large that it will clearly be some
time before a long term trend is clear.

IMHO, what we're really seeing is a whole bunch of trends overlapping
each other.

The new hams in our area are good people, and are becoming active and
well mannered hams.


IMHO, that's more important than how many.


When it all boils down, that is what is important. Despite all the
concerns voiced by various segemnts of the Amateur community, what we
need are good, active people.

Agreed.

73 de Jim, N2EY


[email protected] May 3rd 07 02:52 AM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
On Apr 26, 5:49?am, wrote:

Looking back over the past decade or so, I see the following trends:

- The number of US hams grew in the early 1990s but began a slow
decline in the late 1990s.
- The number of US hams grew in the early 2000s (2000-2003, after the
rules changes that went into effect in April 2000) but the growth was
not sustained and began a slow decline in the mid-2003
- The recent changes (Feb 2007) appear to have stopped the decline in
the short term.
- Both the 2000 and 2007 rules changes had the effect of a far greater
number of existing hams upgrading than new hams joining.


Was there really any expectation to the contrary, Jim?

There's not been ten cents worth of promotion of the new
licenure requirements in the non-Amateur press, ie: Pop Science, Pop
Mechanics, etc etc etc...

WE know all albout the changes...No one else does, and even if
the ARRL, CQ, W5YI, etc started the full court press I seriously doubt
we'd see more than that same brief surge as you noteed above....Oh, to
be sure there's going to be a handful of the 11 meter DX crowd that
decides to "go legal", but that's still a very samll percentage.

Nope...I think we're getting all the "influx" now that we will.
I've said it before and here it is again...Amateur Radio does NOT need
"big numbers"...We need to have QUALITY licensees...That means solid
skills and a NON-COMPROMISED question pool like we have today.

73

Steve, K4YZ


[email protected] May 3rd 07 04:36 AM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
On May 2, 9:52�pm, wrote:
On Apr 26, 5:49?am, wrote:

Looking back over the past decade or so, I see the following trends:


- The number of US hams grew in the early 1990s but began a slow
decline in the late 1990s.
- The number of US hams grew in the early 2000s (2000-2003, after the
rules changes that went into effect in April 2000) but the growth was
not sustained and began a slow decline in the mid-2003
- The recent changes (Feb 2007) appear to have stopped the decline in
the short term.
- Both the 2000 and 2007 rules changes had the effect of a far greater
number of existing hams upgrading than new hams joining.


Was there really any expectation to the contrary, Jim?


One of the reasons given by those proposing the changes was to insure
the growth and survival of amateur radio in the 21st century.

There's not been ten cents worth of promotion of the new
licenure requirements in the non-Amateur press, ie: Pop Science, Pop
Mechanics, etc etc etc...


Do those mags even exist anymore? What's their circulation?

WE know all albout the changes...No one else does, and even if
the ARRL, CQ, W5YI, etc started the full court press I seriously doubt
we'd see more than that same brief surge as you noteed above....Oh, to
be sure there's going to be a handful of the 11 meter DX crowd that
decides to "go legal", but that's still a very samll percentage.


So how do we get the word out?

Nope...I think we're getting all the "influx" now that we will.
I've said it before and here it is again...Amateur Radio does NOT need
"big numbers"...We need to have QUALITY licensees..


Why can't we have both?

That means solid
skills and a NON-COMPROMISED question pool like we have today.

I'm not sure what you mean by "non-compromised".

If it means a secret test, forget it. The only way we'd ever get
secret tests again would be for FCC to take over the process, and
they're just not going to do that.

And even if FCC could somehow be convinced to take over the whole test
preparation and administration process, somebody could just repeat
Dick Bash's tricks of 30+ years ago, and the tests wouldn't stay
secret.

The one thing that *can* be done is to make the pools so big that it's
easier to learn the material than to learn the test.
Anyone can submit questions to the QPC.

73 de Jim, N2EY.


AF6AY May 3rd 07 08:01 PM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
wrote on Wed, 2 May 2007 23:36:41 EDT

On May 2, 9:52?pm, wrote:
On Apr 26, 5:49?am, wrote:



There's not been ten cents worth of promotion of the new
licenure requirements in the non-Amateur press, ie: Pop Science, Pop
Mechanics, etc etc etc...


Do those mags even exist anymore? What's their circulation?


Popular Science and Popular Mechanics are both newsstand
periodicals and my barber and my dentist include those in their
waiting area. :-) By scan of their contents, both seem to cover
whatever high-tech is "in" regarding all of science and technology.

At one time in the 1940s and 1950s, Popular Science did have
a few hobby projects concerning radio and home music systems
(of their day), none of them more complicated than using one to
three vacuum tubes. The largest such article that I recall was a
multi-part construction article of a (then) wideband (10 MHz or so)
oscilloscope authored by John Wood Campbell, then Editor in
Chief of Astounding Science Fiction magazine (later "Analog").



Nope...I think we're getting all the "influx" now that we will.
I've said it before and here it is again...Amateur Radio does NOT need
"big numbers"...We need to have QUALITY licensees..


Why can't we have both?


What defines "quality?" That is a popular descriptor yet is not
defined
fully by any of its users.

All who are licensed in a particular radio service should obey the
applicable laws concerning that radio service. As to what they
do within that radio service should be up to the individual. The FCC
gives all licensed U.S. radio amateurs quite a bit of freedom to do
what the individual wants to do. As such, the "quality" aspect would
seem largely subjective on the part of whoever uses that word.



And even if FCC could somehow be convinced to take over the whole test
preparation and administration process, somebody could just repeat
Dick Bash's tricks of 30+ years ago, and the tests wouldn't stay
secret.


That's a presumption that Mr. Bash was the only one to do "tricks."
It belies the hard-cover "Q and A" books that were available as far
back as the 1950s. Those "Q and A" books were available on all
current classes of FCC tests and a number of state licensing tests
for various state licenses.

Point of personal history: I tried to get one for the FCC Commercial
license test in 1956, but local bookstores did not have them
available. I borrowed the (then format) FCC Regulations loose-leaf
binder and memorized as much as possible of the entire set as
applied to all. There were fewer radio services then than 51 years
later.


The one thing that *can* be done is to make the pools so big that it's
easier to learn the material than to learn the test.


A popular presumption is that all "just memorize the questions and
answers" prior to a test. That is difficult to prove since each
applicant's efforts are unique to the individual. Certainly certain
regulations must be memorized. However the questions regarding
theory and operation depend on the experience and previous
knowledge of each individual.

As to the actual number of questions-answers in the pools, the
following are hand counts of all three current question pools from
a print-out of them made prior to my 25 February 2007 exam:

Technician: 35 questions, Minimum required in pool 350, Actual
number in pool 392. Ratio of pool to test questions = 11.20:1

General: 35 questions, Minimum required in pool 350, Actual
number in pool 485. Ratio of pool to test questions = 13.86:1

Extra: 50 questions, Minimum required in pool 500, Actual
number in pool 802. Ratio of pool to test questions = 16.04:1

All three classes: 120 questions total, Minimum required (total)
1200, Actual number in pool 1679. Ratio of pools to test
questions 13.99:1 average.

Note: The above is not a scientific study and the actual count may
be
off by a few questions. As it is now (General will change in
mid-2007),
the actual pool question quantity is over the minimum regulatory
number of ten pool choices per required test question, all classes.

I have been suggesting elsewhere (for several years) that a "cure"
for
the presumption that all "just memorize the pool to pass" is to
increase the QP size. Very few commented on that elsewhere.
I don't personally believe in that presumption yet it is frequently
stated by others elsewhere.

To some degree the increase in QP size that has already been done
by the NCVEC Question Pool Committee. Having had a recent
exposure to all three class pools in a test environment, I would
judge
that the NCVEC QPC has done a good job overall for the current QPs.
In review, post-test, I would say that the NCVEC QPC has introduced
enough 'distractor' questions to make an applicant pay closer
attention to both questions and choice of answers.

Considering the present-day scope of possible activity by licensed
radio amateurs in the U.S., the type and kind of questions in a
NCVEC QP can have a large variety. Part 97 Title 47 CFR gives
licensees that variety. The choice of which questions to include can
be difficult under such a situation...especially so when there is
random choice of which questions to include within a specific type
and kind on any exam.

Anyone can submit questions to the QPC.


Their website is at www.ncvec.org

73, Len AF6AY


KH6HZ May 4th 07 12:22 PM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
wrote:

Nope...I think we're getting all the "influx" now that we will.


The decline in licensing continues unabated.

With the exception of a minor uptick in October '06, the number of licensed
amateurs has been in decline since '03
..
Feb 07: 655,477. Mar 07: 655,048 Apr 07: 654,940

Where are the "hoards of technically savvy" people in the wings "just
waiting for the code requirement to disappear"?


I've said it before and here it is again...Amateur Radio does NOT need
"big numbers"...We need to have QUALITY licensees...That means solid
skills and a NON-COMPROMISED question pool like we have today.


Exactly. History has proven time and time again that quality, not quantity,
is the solution to most problems.


73
kh6hz


AF6AY May 5th 07 05:02 AM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
wrote:
Nope...I think we're getting all the "influx" now that we will.


The decline in licensing continues unabated.

With the exception of a minor uptick in October '06, the number of licensed
amateurs has been in decline since '03
.
Feb 07: 655,477. Mar 07: 655,048 Apr 07: 654,940


I disagree with the above. Based just on the www.hamdata.com info
(as opposed to ARRL "active-only" listings), the number of new
licensees is now above the number of expirations. As of 3 May 07
the New v. Expiration numbers for USA licensees a

Last 30 days (total): New = 2,742 Expirations = 2,658

Last 60 days (total): New = 6, 417 Expirations = 5.494

Last 90 days (total): New = 8,972 Expirations = 7,767

Compared to the total number of licensees of 2 years prior
(total of 733,147) there are 10,957 fewer licensees as of 3 May 07.
The drop in total licensees is about 1.5% in two years.

By my observation, the trend of newcomers surpassing the
number of expirations in the USA appears to have begun. Yes,
it may be "a statistical anamoly" in numbers but the only way
to prove such a refutation is to jump ahead to 2008 and
produce numbers from then, something not yet within scientific
grasp. :-)


Where are the "hoards of technically savvy" people in the wings "just
waiting for the code requirement to disappear"?


I'm not sure that was anything but some convenient scapegoat
phrase (i.e., 'urban myth') used by those desiring the
continuation of the status quo as of the early 1990s.

The hordes of "technically-savvy people" are busily engaged in
a number of very technical avocations in areas like: Personal
computing (both hardware and software), Robotics (of more
tangible appeal to youngsters), Automotive electronics,
Amateur Scientific experimentation, Radio-control, Music
Systems from guitar amplifiers to high-end sound systems,
Home Security Systems, just to name a few. Add to those
Blog maintenance and web-surfing and non-electronic-but-
technically-complex hobbies like genealogy and computer
graphics construction (of photos as well as original art) and
all of the above is just a tip of the iceberg of interesting and
challenging personal activities available to all in the last two
decades.

Personal radio communication without the available infra-
structure of other personal communications means has been
faced with a great deal of competition for everyone's free time.
Amateur radio - in and of itself in the old paradigms - hasn't
come up with enough attraction to be competitive in the hobby
area. Having always been older than the FCC, I can recall
that amateur radio was an attractive hobby in the 1950s and
1960s. That was the 'baby boomer' era where youngsters
were made aware of "radio" and the ability to talk around the
world. But, that high-technology of its time was 50 to 40
years ago and technology of communications has made
several quantum jumps in abilities of all to communicate
since then. The Internet went public in 1991, just 16 years
ago, has now become part and parcel of USA society today.

"Technically-savvy people' are generally engaged in work on
savvy technology for a living. They are creating the savvy
technology that others will enjoy next year or a few years
later. That these "technically-savvy people" want to pursue
free-time hobbies on other things than communicating by
their own personal radios is not their fault. They have so
many possible choices to occupy their free time that few
will fall back on half-century-old 'technological' hobbies such
as 'radio sport' contesting and/or collecting QSOs.

Given all the actual new technology made available for all
to use in hobbies of the last two decades, those alleged
"hordes of technically-savvy people" no doubt have taken
up other technically-savvy hobbies and discarded the idea
of emulating what the old pioneers of radio did long ago.
I submit that many just got tired of waiting for the code test
to be eliminated from testing and went on to other things.

73, Len AF6AY


AF6AY May 5th 07 05:03 AM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
On May 4, 3:22?am, "KH6HZ" wrote:
wrote:


snip

I've said it before and here it is again...Amateur Radio does NOT need
"big numbers"...We need to have QUALITY licensees...That means solid
skills and a NON-COMPROMISED question pool like we have today.


Exactly. History has proven time and time again that quality, not quantity,
is the solution to most problems.


The word "quality" is both subjective and ambiguous used
above. Amateur radio is not an occupation. It can be an
enjoyable avocation for many in a "technically-savvy"
activity...without the requirement of years of formal education
or the necessity of enduring certain levels of accomplishment
as in a guild, union, or craft trade.

In most administrations of the world, the only requirement is
that all in amateur radio operate according to their regulations.
Disobeying regulations will result in 'firing' an amateur (loss of
license, fines, etc., depending on an administration's laws).
Otherwise, every licensed amateur retains their license for
whatever term an administration lawfully specifies. Their
quality of operating is up to the individual and whatever peer
pressure might ensue within a country.

In the USA I think that "quantity" is important to the health
and welfare of future amateur radio here. Primarily for the
"presence" of so many licensees having an effect on law-
makers' future decisions. Secondarily on the market presence
to insure that equipment and components will be available in
the future.

As to "history proving anything" for "solutions," I submit the
Roman Empire as an example. Roman engineering of its day
was the epitome then, resulting in roads over most of known
Europe, water supply and waste disposal, ships and trade over
all the long reaches of its empire. Historians have written that
the Roman Empire failed from within, not from the quality of
its civil engineering and other innovations for civilization of its
time.

"Radio" as a communications means is only 111 years old.
The radio of now is vastly different from early radio, not just in
technology but also in that elusive word "quality." To attempt
pinning some specific era as the baseline for such "quality"
is tantamount to trying to nail jelly to a tree... :-)

73, Len AF6AY


[email protected] May 5th 07 01:20 PM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
On May 4, 7:22�am, "KH6HZ" wrote:
wrote:
Nope...I think we're getting all the "influx" now that we will.


The decline in licensing continues unabated.


Well, maybe. But according to the numbers I've seen and posted in
recent months, the number of current, unexpired FCC-issued amateur
licenses held by individuals seems to have leveled off at around
655,000.

With the exception of a minor uptick in October '06, the number of licens

ed
amateurs has been in decline since '03
.
Feb 07: 655,477. Mar 07: 655,048 Apr 07: 654,940


The number I have for May 1, 2007 is 655,069. However, it should be
noted that the total number can vary up and down a couple of hundred
in just a few days.

Where are the "hoards of technically savvy" people in the wings "just
waiting for the code requirement to disappear"?

There are three possibilities:

1) They don't know the rules changed back in February.

2) They're busy studying for the written test, finding a VE session,
etc.

3) They don't exist.

---

There's also the idea that one of the purposes of amateur radio is to
*create* technically-savvy people. That's one reason for the emphasis
on young people. Like a kid who got his first license years before
high school, and the Extra years before college.


I've said it before and here it is again...Amateur Radio does NOT need
"big numbers"...We need to have QUALITY licensees...That means solid
skills and a NON-COMPROMISED question pool like we have today.


Exactly. History has proven time and time again that quality, not quantit

y,
is the solution to most problems.


Why can't we have both quality and big numbers?

And just what are "big numbers", anyway?

Back in the late 1940s, all through the 1950s and into the early
1960s, the number of US hams grew from about 60,000 just after VJ-Day
to about 250,000 in 1964, even though all hams back then had to pass
Morse Code exams and "secret" written tests.

Yet ham radio was far less popular back then than it is today, because
the ratio of hams to total US population was much lower then than
today.

The 1970s and early 1980s were another period of fast growth, even
though the license test requirements had been considerably increased
by the "incentive licensing" changes of 1968 and 1969.

73 de Jim, N2EY


xxx May 5th 07 06:02 PM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
"KH6HZ" wrote:

[...]
Where are the "hoards of technically savvy" people in the wings "just
waiting for the code requirement to disappear"?



Answer: They know nothing whatever about any of this.

When the Internet opened to the public in the early 1990's, there was
a level of media interest that was almost indescribable. Have you made
any attempt to draw the media into this?


AF6AY May 5th 07 09:54 PM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
wrote on Sat, 5 May 2007 08:20:29 EDT

On May 4, 7:22?am, "KH6HZ" wrote:
wrote:


Nope...I think we're getting all the "influx" now that we will.


The decline in licensing continues unabated.


Well, maybe. But according to the numbers I've seen and posted in
recent months, the number of current, unexpired FCC-issued amateur
licenses held by individuals seems to have leveled off at around
655,000.


One of the reasons I used the www.hamdata.com figures is that there
is no differentiation between "active" and "inactive" in quoting the
New (never before licensed) versus the Expired (very definitely out of
their grace period). That dynamic shows - directly - the
'replacement'
of attrited licensees by newcomers.

... However, it should be
noted that the total number can vary up and down a couple of hundred
in just a few days.


Examining totals over a 30-day or longer period has an averaging
effect of minimizing the statistical anamolies occurring over just a
few days. "Smoothing the curve," so to speak.

Where are the "hoards of technically savvy" people in the wings "just
waiting for the code requirement to disappear"?


There are three possibilities:

1) They don't know the rules changed back in February.


That seems unlikely considering the FCC announced their decision
on 15 December 2006 and that news was then carried by the ARRL
in all their periodicals, in CQ magazine, in Popular Communications,
on www.qrz.com, on www.eham.net, on newsgroups oriented towards
amateur radio (and including SWL and CB enthusiasts), in major
electronics trade periodicals (EDN and Electronic Design, even
Microwaves & RF, the IEEE Spectrum membership magazine), even
in a few large newspapers. While the 'waiting period' was only
slightly longer than two months before legal activation, there had
been an NPRM and Comment period on it begun nearly a year and
a half prior in Docket 05-235 announced 19 July 2005. That NPRM
and Comments were also publicized by the major amateur radio
news providers in print and on the Internet. Anyone who is at all
concerned or interested in or about amateur radio in the USA is
bound to have found out about it ahead of time.

2) They're busy studying for the written test, finding a VE session,
etc.


While the more remote areas of the USA would still be difficult to
access a VEC examination location, those would also represent the
least populous areas. VEC exams exist in the urban centers and
are publicized by the dozen-plus VECs to those interested. In the
Greater Los Angeles area (population roughly 8 million) about half
of the exams scheduled were "walk-in," no advance notice
necessary. In close observation of all the Question Pools issued
by the NCVEC, there were very few questions directly concerning
morse code use that would be affected by FCC 06-178 so there
would be minimal studying any changes wrought by that R&O.

3) They don't exist.


Or, more likely, the phrase did not exist in the alleged wide use
claimed by some. :-)

A more likely possibility is that there are 'hoards' [sic] of
technically-
savvy people who simply gave up on the old requirements of ham
radio testing and went on to other, newer technology-related hobbies
that were more interesting to them. They just were not interested
in spending their own time on learning a skill they would never use
after passing an amateur radio examination.

73, Len AF6AY


AF6AY May 5th 07 09:56 PM

Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
 
wrote on Sat, 5 May 2007 08:20:29 EDT:

On May 4, 7:22?am, "KH6HZ" wrote:


And just what are "big numbers", anyway?

Back in the late 1940s, all through the 1950s and into the early
1960s, the number of US hams grew from about 60,000 just after VJ-Day
to about 250,000 in 1964, even though all hams back then had to pass
Morse Code exams and "secret" written tests.


Yes, there was certainly a growth, but a number of factors were not
mentioned. Firstly, all amateur radio operation was forbidden during
the duration of World War II. Secondly, the wide use of radio for
communications by the military during that war was certainly one of
exposure to many military members that might have been mildly
interested in radio in general at the time. Third, the large numbers
of
"war surplus" radio equipment suitable for HF operation was a boon
for all interested at the time to become radio active at low cost.
I've
witnessed all of that first-hand.

Yet ham radio was far less popular back then than it is today, because
the ratio of hams to total US population was much lower then than
today.


I have to disagree with that for several reasons. Independent amateur
radio publications CQ and 73 began a many-decades publishing
existance in that period. Several other radio-interest publications
began and some pre-WWII publishers restarted in the late 1940s.
Publishing of electronics subjects in all areas began in earnest
during
the late 1940s and into the 1950s and those have increased up to
today.

Electronics in many applications flourished after WWII, even before
the invention of the transistor and first appearance of low-priced
production devices almost a decade later. With that increase in
general electronics production, not to mention the avalanche of
TV receivers being made, came an increase in the availability of
electronic components through distributors and dealers, most being
suitable for "radio" applications. Thousands of small start-up
businesses and proto-corporations involved in electronics began
during that period; few were directly involved with amateur radio per
se since all of the electronics industry was undergoing a rapid
expansion...something that hasn't stopped.

The immediate post-WWII period saw little change in amateur radio
technology or operation, the vast majority concerned with HF bands
as they were then, that mostly using radiotelegraphy mode. Voice
on HF ham bands required double-sideband AM techniques which
didn't begin to be replaced by new-fangled SSB until the late 1950s.
Data (actually RTTY then) was rare and confined to those who could
get surplus teleprinter terminals. Only a few knowledgeable amateur
experimenters were engaged in radio above 30 MHz, a part of the
spectrum considered almost "other-worldly" by so many HF hams
and inhabited only by TV, FM, and radars. :-) The first significant
change in worldwide amateur radio came about (in my observation)
at WARC-79 and the creation of new HF bands for amateurs. In the
USA there was little advancement in amateur radio regulations to
keep pace with the growing influence of electronics in all consumer
applications and radio for other purposes than broadcast or ham use.

CB on the former 11m ham band slice of HF had a notable growth
among U.S. radio producers after 1958. All of the bigger radio
makers were involved plus several start-up companies. Less than
a decade later came the off-shore produced CB sets at lower prices
and the explosion in CB set use on highways began. While there
are no easily-obtainable statistics now, estimates of CB set use
today outnumbers amateur radio licensees by at least 7:1. With
the off-shore production of CB transceivers came the off-shore
produced amateur radios having competitive quality and cost.

The 1970s and early 1980s were another period of fast growth, even
though the license test requirements had been considerably increased
by the "incentive licensing" changes of 1968 and 1969.


Not having taken any "incentive licensing era" tests for amateur
radio, I can't comment on "requirements being considerably
increased." I do note that the time period was one in which the
[Japanese] "Big3" of amateur radio designers-producers got started
and firmly established their position in the ham market.
Hallicrafters
of Chicago dissolved their business, National Radio went to all-
government contract work and morphed into other things, Collins
Radio dropped out of the amateur market though it is still heavy
into commercial and military radios as a division of Rockwell Intl.
Heath Company of Benton Harbor, MI, quit most of its fabled kit
business and changed owners. Yaesu, Kenwood, Icom rule in the
HF-VHF-UHF ham radios off the shelf today. All three plus the
smaller off-shore makers offer quality in production and design at
competitive prices. I would think that such would have a direct
bearing on whether any newcomers would be attracted to amateur
radio of today or of the 1980s and 1990s.

However, with such "fast growth" ('fast' being subjective) came the
increased demand to eliminate the code test for amateur radio
license exams. Several countries had established "T-hams" who
did not test for morse code skill but were restricted to VHF and up.
The USA lagged behind those other countries in finally establishing
the Technician class (no-code-test) license in 1991. The rest of the
radio world was giving up using any morse code modes...if it had
ever established it from a radio service's beginning.

In 1970 there was little competition for free time from the Internet
(made public 1991), Bulletin Board Systems (as yet a decade
away), personal computers (four years away for a beginning, a
decade away for the "IBM PC"), less than half of all homes had
color TV and most had screens smaller than 23 inches, nothing
like the 100 channels for model radio control at 72-74 MHz, few
amateur radios on the market for VHF and higher, cellular
telephone service just starting (at lower frequencies than L-band),
no standardization on Compact Disc recordings (magnetic
recordings had begun to compete with vinyl discs), no standard
magnetic tape recording system for television recordings, "Pong"
was just taking hold as a novelty electronic game in restaurants
and lounges (all-digital, first models did not use a
microprocessor), TTL digital devices were becoming a market-
demand leader for digital electronics, some specialty analog
ICs were new and available although most would be out of
production in three decades, "auto electronics" consisted of
an in-dash AM/FM radio and an ignition system little changed
from 1940 designs. Personal radio was limited to 11m CB that
was undergoing an explosive growth from inexpensive foreign
production and becoming popular with truckers. Electronic
music augmentation was just beginning and the first music
synthesizers had appeared.

Three decades later there is considerable competition for free
time and personal entertainment. One out of three Americans
has a cell phone subscription. One out of five American house-
holds has some form of Internet access. CDs have replaced
all previous formats of music recording and DVDs have replaced
former means television recordings. Retail dealers and renters
of both have been created. We are in the transition phase of
conversion to HDTV which has already shown a superior video
and audio service. Most U.S. households have multi-channel
television-music service by cable or satellite relay. We've had
direct-dial telephone service for two decades to any other
same-service telephone in the world. The Internet is firmly
established as part of U.S. social fabric and is found on all
continents of the world. We have license-free FRS HTs over
the counter as pairs for under $100. 11m CB is still with us
and still used on highways by the millions. Remote control of
models by radio in the 100 channels of license-free bands at
72 and 74 MHz is the standard for modelers, wireless local area
network equipment is off-the-shelf for businesses and
residences. Cell phone service is available on all major U.S.
highways, even in remote areas (excluding parts of Alaska).
We have cordless telephones that operate at 5.6 MHz, using
secure digital modulation as well as older 2.4 MHz units with
the same features, both a practical impossibility in 1970.

I've not included such things as voice-over-Internet protocol,
the ability of modern PCs to typeset a printed page as good as
any compositor plus include imagery as part of a finished
document. I've not included the (literally) thousands of different
games available for PCs. I've not even mentioned that the
average under-$1500 over-the-counter PC suite of today having
more processing power than any IBM-360 or RCA Spectra 70
mainframe computer of 1970. I've not mentioned that digital
electronics and photosensing have changed personal
photography from film to electronic form, capable of being
"developed" at any PC or added-function stand-alone printer.
I've not included the (license-free) radios that open car doors,
open garage doors, sound various music when wireless door
bells are pushed, activate electrical devices remotely, carry
security TV camera signals, or identify products by RF, all
using relatively-secure digital codings.

The preceding has been just a summary of the kinds of
things which can compete for free time for all Americans,
whether they are licensed in the amateur radio service or not.
It is that kind of competition that future amateur radio in the
USA has to work amongst to attract newcomers. Amateur
radio must attract newcomers or it won't survive as a radio
service. Amateur radio must change with the times or just
disappear as human attrition takes its toll on those who
refuse to adapt.

73, Len AF6AY




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