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Old March 31st 07, 07:48 AM posted to rec.radio.amateur.moderated
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Default Before and After Cessation of Code Testing

Prior to the cessation of code testing for US amateur radio
license testing, there were a number of speculations on what
would happen in the amateur radio ranks. To see what really
happened I looked at www.handata.com information and selected
the 30-day period prior to 24 January 2007 (or 30 to 60 days
prior to end of code testing) and the 30-day period just after
23 February 2007:

FCC Action Ending 24 January 2007 Ending 24 March
2007
-------------------
---------------------- --------------------
New Licensees 1,342
2,941
No Longer Licensed 2,101 2,975

Class Changes 985
7,234
Callsign Changes 214
897
All Updates * 16,536
17,418

* Includes Renewals, Address Changes, etc.

30-day Period ending 24 March begins approximately 23 February
2007.
30-day Period ending 24 January begins approximately 24 December
2006.

The number of Updates, primarily Renewals, is about the same for
the
two periods. Expirations are about the same, allowing for the
perterbation of the year-end Holiday of Christmas and New Years
when no or little testing is done. It should be noted that
Expirations
are generally higher than the number of New amateurs entering. One
reason for the lower number of New Licensees in January may (or may
not) have been a "waiting period" between the announcement of the
FCC 06-178 R&O on code test elimination and it taking effect near
the end of February.

Most significant are the Class Changes indicating that major
activity
was Upgrades, a 7.3:1.0 ratio. Callsign Changes were less at about
a 4.2:1.0 ratio. License Class totals show the distribution of
Upgrades a bit better:

License Class As of 24 January
2007 As of 24 March 2007
----------------
--------------------- -------------------
Technician 310,195 (+870) 307,730 (-3,998)
Technician Plus 41,343 (-840) 39,242 (-1,208)
Novice 29,429 (-243) 28,892 (-291)
General 142,428 (-323) 147,186 (+5,129)
Advanced 76,889 (-335) 76,084 (-475)
Extra 111,423 (+6) 112,231 (+775)
Club 10,313 (+53) 10,402 (+56)
TOTAL 722,020 (-812) 721,767 (-12)

Total less Club 711,707 711,365

Numbers in parentheses indicate the change in class totals from the
start of that particular 30-day period.

There is a significant increase in the number of General Class
licensees through March and a near similar decline in numbers
of Technician Class indicating that many of those new Generals
probably came from the Technician Class.

All those in their 2-year Grace Period are included. Since we
don't
know if those are just letting their license lay until it expires
or are too busy right now or otherwise occupied, I am including
them
since the FCC allows them to pick up where they left off if they
decide to renew before that Grace Period is up.

73, Len AF6AY

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Old March 31st 07, 05:02 PM posted to rec.radio.amateur.moderated
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Default Before and After Cessation of Code Testing

"AF6AY" wrote:

Prior to the cessation of code testing for US amateur radio
license testing, there were a number of speculations on what
would happen in the amateur radio ranks. To see what really
happened [...]



Are you sure that you've given it enough time? How many non-hams
know anything about any of this? It will probably be years before the
results are in.

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Old March 31st 07, 05:57 PM posted to rec.radio.amateur.moderated
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Default Before and After Cessation of Code Testing

On Mar 31, 12:48 am, "AF6AY" wrote:


happened I looked atwww.handata.cominformation and selected


http://www.hamdata.com/

73

Lloyd Colston, KC5FM
http://kc5fm.ld.net

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Old March 31st 07, 07:59 PM posted to rec.radio.amateur.moderated
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Default Before and After Cessation of Code Testing

On Mar 31, 8:02�am, xxx wrote:
*"AF6AY" wrote:
* *Prior to the cessation of code testing for US amateur radio
* *license testing, there were a number of speculations on what
* *would happen in the amateur radio ranks. *To see what really
* *happened [...]


* * Are you sure that you've given it enough time? How many non-hams
know anything about any of this? It will probably be years before the
results are in.


Yes, an accurate portrayal won't be possible until some time
in the future. However, this day is only the end of March and
the code test ended on 23 February 2007. I was showing what
was thought to be the beginning of a trend, based on the FCC
database information as collected - en toto - by third parties.
As far as I can see, the FCC database numbers are "what
really happened" in the 30-day period following (and including)
the day that amateur radio license testing excluded the code
test.

Disclaimer: The numbers for the 30-day period ending 24
March will be skewed slightly in (approximately) the first
week of code test elimination. That is a result in delay of
applicant test results being delivered to the various VEC
headquarters, re-checked, then (if VEC approval occurs)
being delivered to the FCC. That delay time is unknown but
can be speculated as at least a week, perhaps two weeks.

As a benchmark for comparison, I used the 30-day period
which began during the start of US year-end holiday time,
when the code test was mandatory for General and Amateur
Extra license classes. I did not download and save either
the publicly-posted Hamdata or ARRL statistics prior to that
time on a daily basis. Note that the earlier period can also
be "skewed" since the Technician class license has not
required a code test since it was first created by the FCC
in 1991.

I may be erroneous in the assumption that the end of code
testing was a landmark decision of major proportions in
United States amateur radio. That news has been a topic
of news and conversation of organizations and news and
discussion sites about amateur radio for at least two years.
For references there are www.qrz.com, www.eham.net,
several equipment classified ad websites, QST, CQ,
Popular Communications magazines, and newsgroups,
all concerning US amateur radio policies and practices.
I am aware that a few radio-interested individuals were not
up-to-date on the cessation of code testing...but, in fairness,
the majority of individuals were cognizant of the end of code
testing and exceptions to that do not adequately eliminate
the majority awareness.

Argument aside on the veracity of information that is
available, there is no real evidence that the end of code
testing resulted in any great tidal-wave of "no coders"
suddenly appearing in US amateur radio. There was a
very evident condition of many already-licensed who
applied for, and got, "upgrades" to General and Amateur
Extra class licenses. I am not approving nor disapproving
of that practice, just showing the result of publicly-
available numeric information gathered and presented in
a format for comparison of two selected time-periods.

I have to apologize to readers for the very un-neat
appearance of my tabulations. Those were done in
fixed-size typeface in Notepad off-line and its
conversion to Google-accepted message format
destroyed a neat columnization of numbers of fixed-
font. If anyone wants the original text of columnization
I will be happy to forward that in private e-mail.

73, Len AF6AY

-or-
magazines

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Old March 31st 07, 08:00 PM posted to rec.radio.amateur.moderated
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Default Before and After Cessation of Code Testing

On Mar 31, 8:57�am, "KC5FM/WX5EM/WQDE391" wrote:
On Mar 31, 12:48 am, "AF6AY" wrote:

* *happened I looked atwww.handata.cominformationand selected


http://www.hamdata.com/

73

Lloyd Colston, KC5FMhttp://kc5fm.ld.net


My apologies are tendered for an apparent run-together of
text by the time my off-line prepared message got into
whatever form the message robot uses. I will pay better
attention to columnization in the future.

If you desire a copy of the original message (using Courier
fixed-font-spacing) I will be happy to send that in private
e-mail, either direct or converted to PDF, on a private e-mail
inquiry.

73, Len AF6AY



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Old April 1st 07, 03:24 AM posted to rec.radio.amateur.moderated
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Default Before and After Cessation of Code Testing

On Mar 31, 1:59�pm, "AF6AY" wrote:
On Mar 31, 8:02�am, xxx wrote:

*"AF6AY" wrote:
* *Prior to the cessation of code testing for US amateur radio
* *license testing, there were a number of speculations on what
* *would happen in the amateur radio ranks. *To see what really
* *happened [...]


* * Are you sure that you've given it enough time? How many non-hams
know anything about any of this? It will probably be years before the
results are in.


* *Yes, an accurate portrayal won't be possible until some time
* *in the future. *However, this day is only the end of March and
* *the code test ended on 23 February 2007. *I was showing what
* *was thought to be the beginning of a trend, based on the FCC
* *database information as collected - en toto - by third parties.


Extrapolation from such limited data may or may not
be representative of a trend.

The daily variation of the license totals can exceed the
apparent growth, too. For example, on February 23, 2007
the total number of current FCC-issued amateur license
held by individuals was 654,710. On March 29, 2007,
the total was 654,774, which looks like a growth of 64.

But in between the daily total has fluctuated all over the place. On
March 16, 2007, the total was 655,025, and on
March 19, 2007 the total was 654,094. That's a variation of
931 in just three days! Of course those are extremes, but you can see
how much of a different conclusion could be drawn depending on which
days you choose to compare.

Over time the trend will become clearer, but a month is
a very short baseline.

* *As far as I can see, the FCC database numbers are "what
* *really happened" in the 30-day period following (and including)
* *the day that amateur radio license testing excluded the code
* *test.


They are certainly one indicator. There are others.

IMHO, it is more accurate to use the number of current,
unexpired licenses rather than including those in the grace
period. Renewal is free, easy and can be done several
ways including online. Why would any licensed amateur
with continued interest allow the license to be in the grace
period without renewing?

* *I may be erroneous in the assumption that the
end of code
* *testing was a landmark decision of major proportions in
* *United States amateur radio. *


When the debate over Morse Code testing was going
on, "growth" was one of the main reasons given to
remove it. I saw many claims that the number of US
amateurs would continue to shrink unless all Morse
Code testing was eliminated, and that many "otherwise
qualified people" would flood into Amateur Radio if all
code testing were eliminated. So far, that doesn't appear
to be happening.

But it's only been a bit over a month. Perhaps there will be long-term
growth, perhaps not. The numbers will tell the story over time.

73 de Jim, N2EY

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Old April 1st 07, 10:16 PM posted to rec.radio.amateur.moderated
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Default Before and After Cessation of Code Testing

"AF6AY" wrote:

Yes, an accurate portrayal won't be possible until some time
in the future. However, this day is only the end of March and
the code test ended on 23 February 2007. I was showing what
was thought to be the beginning of a trend, based on the FCC
database information as collected - en toto - by third parties.


Extrapolation from such limited data may or may not
be representative of a trend.


Please forgive me for not having a working crystal ball. The
figures for April to December 2007 and all of 2008 were not
available to me. :-)

However, some "trends" should be clearly visible:
1. There was a sudden jump of seven times the number of
upgrades in a 30 day period as compared to the 30 day
period two months prior.
2. There was a sudden jump of four times the number of
license class changes in a 30 day period as compared
to the 30 day period two months prior.
3. There was an approximate doubling of the number of NEW
(never before licensed) amateurs in a 30 day period as
compared to the 30 day period two months prior.

The daily variation of the license totals can exceed the
apparent growth, too. For example, on February 23, 2007
the total number of current FCC-issued amateur license
held by individuals was 654,710. On March 29, 2007,
the total was 654,774, which looks like a growth of 64.


I specifically used a 30-day period as an averaging scheme
and such averaging over time is quite common in sensing
trends in statistical work. Day-to-day variations DO occur
but a total of actions in a 30-day period do have a smoothing
effect and come closer to an average.

Note that most of the VEC testing schedules are monthly or
bi-weekly.

IMHO, it is more accurate to use the number of current,
unexpired licenses rather than including those in the grace
period. Renewal is free, easy and can be done several
ways including online. Why would any licensed amateur
with continued interest allow the license to be in the grace
period without renewing?


For several possible reasons:
1. Death, natural, suicide, or as the result of (2).
2. Accident or stroke (or similar medical problems) not
allowing full use of communications faculties.
3. Spousal or family or friends' disapproval.
4. Extended military or business relocations.
5. Incarceration or arrest (rare).
6. Growing dissatisfaction with amateur activities and/or
policies.

Now, item (6) might be debateable, but then observe that
your conditional "...with continued interest" implies
that no other reasons are valid, including the possibility
of growing dissatisfaction. I don't choose to argue that
point with you since the rest of your posting appears too
confrontational and argumentative.

I merely compared two 30-day periods based on the numbers
available to all on www.hamdata.com, a service provided
by them and one that is derived from FCC database
information which is available to the public. I trust in
the veracity of that information since it compares well
with other Internet-access sources of statistical
information, also derived from the same FCC database.
The conclusions I came to were my own observations, not
my "opinion" nor of having any preconceived notion of
what "might" happen...only that some did speculate on
"what would happen" in other discussion venues.

I have PDFs of the downloads I used and will ZIP them up
and send them privately via e-mail attachments to anyone
having a valid Internet address. That includes a "nice"
formatting of my original post. If there are errors
between my numbers postings and the www.hamdata.com
numbers, I will acknowledge those errors. At this point
I don't believe there are any errors in my postings'
numerical values.

73, Len AF6AY

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Old April 9th 07, 11:34 PM posted to rec.radio.amateur.moderated
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Default Before and After Cessation of Code Testing

The FCC database derived numbers can be inconclusive, because the "new/
upgrade" numbers are masked by expirations, giving a "net" number.

Here are some interesting numbers compiled by NCVEC just from test/
upgrade-paper numbers are "bare" of the influence of expirations.

These numbers compare the period of Jan 1 to March 25 of this year
(2007) vs. last year (2006)


New Tech (2006) 4685 (2007) 6565 Change = +40%
New/Upgraded Generals (2006) 945 (2007) 7395 Change = +683%
New/Upgraded Extras (2006) 775 (2007) 1910 Change = +146%

73, de Hans, K0HB


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Old April 10th 07, 12:16 AM posted to rec.radio.amateur.moderated
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Default Before and After Cessation of Code Testing


wrote in message
oups.com...
The FCC database derived numbers can be inconclusive, because the "new/
upgrade" numbers are masked by expirations, giving a "net" number.

Here are some interesting numbers compiled by NCVEC just from test/
upgrade-paper numbers are "bare" of the influence of expirations.

These numbers compare the period of Jan 1 to March 25 of this year
(2007) vs. last year (2006)


New Tech (2006) 4685 (2007) 6565 Change = +40%
New/Upgraded Generals (2006) 945 (2007) 7395 Change = +683%
New/Upgraded Extras (2006) 775 (2007) 1910 Change = +146%

73, de Hans, K0HB



Yet the net number is far more meaningful. It is what tells us if we have
growth or not. Many (but not all) proponents said that this would bring
growth and, at least so far, it has not. Admittedly the time frame is as
yet too short. However, it's also too short to see if this change in new
Technicians is sustained or is a momentary blip in the curve.

Dee, N8UZE


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Old April 10th 07, 02:16 AM posted to rec.radio.amateur.moderated
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Default Before and After Cessation of Code Testing

On Apr 9, 5:16 pm, "Dee Flint" wrote:


Yet the net number is far more meaningful.


"Meaningful" is context dependent.

If the context is "compare the number of new/upgraded licenses by
class for the period January 1 through March 25, 2007 with the
corresponding period in 2006", then the "net" number is not meaningful
and would be misleading.

73, de Hans, K0HB


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