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Michael Coslo · **July 23, 2007 ARS License Numbers**

wrote:
On Jul 26, 7:50?pm, "Dee Flint" wrote:

While I expected a lot of upgrading to happen, this is more than I would
have expected in so short a time.

Consider a few factors, Dee:

1) There was a lot of notice that the changes were coming.
2) The changes reduced the number and types of test needed to upgrade
to General or Extra. Like a price reduction on an item.
3) While the raw numbers may look like a lot, compare them to the
percentages. Generals went from being 19.9% of US hams to 21.7%, while
Extras went from 16.5 to 17.0 %.

And yet in another way, I'm surprised
that there are not even more people upgrading. I wonder if there are a lot
of inactive hams that just aren't getting the word?

All sorts of factors:

- Some hams haven't gotten the word

I still have prospective Hams tell me that they have to brush up on
their Morse code so they can test. Oddly enough a few fellows continued
in that line of even after I told them they didn't need to.

- Some hams are inactive but still in the database
- Some hams are perfectly satisfied with the license they have
- Some hams are studying for their upgrade, waiting for a nearby VE
session, etc.
- Some hams are holding onto their old license classes for a variety
of reasons. For example, I have had more than one Advanced tell me
that s/he won't upgrade to Extra because the Advanced "proves" the
person passed a code test, while the Extra doesn't.

Same here! I suppose that if a person runs with a crowd that sees that
as somehow being better than other people it might be legit. Otherwise
it strikes me as really odd.

Others have told
me that they're sure FCC will eventually give Advanceds a free upgrade
to Extra, so they're just waiting it out.

I'd tell them the same thing I told those who waited out element one's
demise: "If the wait doesn't bother you, then go ahead and wait." There
were people telling me to wait it out back in 1999 "because Element 1
will be going away any day now!" But I didn't wait, and I wouldn't trade
the extra 7 years I had my General and Extra for anything.

At least one I know feels
insulted that it takes the same testing to go from General to Extra as
it does to go from Advanced to Extra.

Oh my! Does this person want a special test made up just for him?
Exactly what dud they see as insulting about having to take the same
test? It isn't that any of the tests are or ever were that difficult (I
think they are at the correct level of difficulty FWIW)

All sorts of other reasons.

Perhaps there is someone out there who is determined to be the last
Extra or the last Novice on the books.

Did you mean Advanced instead of Extra?

In any event, at least the steady decline in the ARS license numbers
since 2003 or so seems to have stopped.

While we have discussed lots of reasons for that decline, I know of
another possibility, at least for a delay. I know several Hams who
waited for the Element one to go away after it was eliminated from the
treaty yet not gone from our testing requirements. The long wait made
for an upgrade delay on some peoples part. I thought that the delay was
actually a harmful thing in that respect.

- 73 de Mike KB3EIa -

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