AF6AY wrote:

The future of USA amateur radio belongs to the newcomers of now.
I think that the relatively minor number of existing licensees who
ARE doing things for newcomers, such as Steve Bonine described
in another thread here, are an EXCELLENT example of what should
be done...positive steps, proactive steps to help, not hinder
newcomers.

I appreciate the kind words, Len, but I think that we all need to
realize that the ham radio hobby as we know it is changing. Of course,
that's no different than at any time in the past, since ham radio today
is different in many respects than ham radio of previous generations.
Like any other technology-driven activity, things have changed and will
continue to change. Can you imagine how amazed someone from the
spark-gap era would be if they were transported into today's world with
its tiny multi-function DC-to-light transceivers? [And just as if to
underscore how common that technology has become, when I misspelled
"transceiver", my email client underlined it for me, and provided the
correct spelling.]

There is, however, an aspect of change these days that is different than
what the hobby has ever experienced, and it's related to the topic of
this thread. The reality is that during the next decades the number of
active ham radio operators is going to decrease. We can massage the
numbers and wring our hands, but there are two absolute facts that we
cannot change: (1) The ham population is aging, (2) The general
population is less interested in ham radio than before.

Perhaps some are unwilling to accept the second statement as a fact, but
I think you're deluding yourself if so. Historically, most recruits
into the hobby came from young folks, and this demographic is simply not
as fascinated by radio as in the past -- they have many alternatives
vying for their spare time. We are getting more middle-aged and retiree
recruits than ever before, but even this population has many potential
ways to spend their spare time and ham radio has to compete.

But the big item is the current age of the ham radio population and the
fact that the same forces that are competing for spare time in the
general population apply to already-licensed hams. Analysis of number
of hams licensed is valuable but it doesn't tell the whole story. How
many licensed hams have gone inactive? There's no way license numbers
can tell us, but there are other statistics that do shed a little light
on it. I'm thinking about things like the number of entries in
contests, or the number of voters in ARRL elections. The problem with
these statistics is that they measure only one very narrow segment of
the hobby, but at least they're not falling off significantly. Yet.

I apologize for rambling, but the point is that I believe that the
number of active hams will decline significantly sometime in the next
10-20 years. I base this on what I see at hamfests (the ones that
haven't already folded), club meetings, and on the air -- almost all the
active hams I run into are at least 50 years old, and many are 70-80
years old. These guys (yes, almost all are male) simply will not be
active hams in 10-20 years. The best of recruiting cannot balance this
single fact.

On the other hand, I'm not sure that there's anything specific to be
done based on a belief that the number of active hams will decline. Our
local club is considering going from monthly meetings to quarterly
meetings; I don't think that's a good idea but it's the sort of thing
that we may see more of in the years to come. Maybe if we recognize the
reality of a shrinking active-ham population, we can come up with
logical and realistic reactions.

73, Steve KB9X