"Jeff Davis" wrote in message
...


If we make the same sort of assumptions as those in the life insurance
business, and we suppose that the median age for licensees is now over 60,
then between now and 2020 the number of licensees in the database will
shrink to below 300,000 due to attrition.


I hope that you're wrong, Jeff, but it's a slim hope.

I expect that a generation from now (a couple of sunspot cycles) the number
of active (mark that word, "active) US amateurs will be under 10,000.

I moved to my current location 30-some years ago (in my late 30's). Joined
two active radio clubs (MWA for contesting, TCDXA for DXing). At that time,
most of the members of each club were about my age, or a little younger.
Most members of each were very active amateurs.

Today, 30 years later, most of the members of each club are about my age, or
a little older. Most are still very active, and both clubs are still very
vibrant, but between the two clubs (combined rosters about 300, but perhaps
really only about 200 hams due to dual memberships), there are only a
handful of members (maybe 25) under age 55, and maybe 5 or 10 in late 30's
or younger.

It's been a nice run.

73, de Hans, K0HB