These are the number of current, unexpired FCC-issued amateur radio
licenses held by individuals on the stated dates, and the percentage of
the total number of active licenses that class contains.

Percentages may not add up to exactly 100.0% due to rounding.

These totals do not include licenses that have expired but are in the
grace period, nor do they include club, military and other station-only
licenses.

Effective April 15, 2000, FCC no longer issued new Novice, Technician
Plus and Advanced class licenses, so the numbers of those license
classes have declined steadily since then.

Also since April 15, 2000, FCC has renewed all existing Technician Plus
licenses as Technician. The number of Technician Plus licenses still in
effect is now less than 1000, and by May 2010 they should all be gone.

It is therefore informative to consider the totals of the two classes,
since the Technician class includes a significant number of Technician
Plus licenses renewed as Technician.

On February 23, 2007, the last Morse Code test element, the 5 wpm
receiving test, was eliminated as a requirement.

The ARS License Numbers:

As of May 14, 2000:

Novice- 49,329 (7.3%) Technician - 205,394 (30.4%) Technician Plus -
128,860 (19.1%) General - 112,677 (16.7%) Advanced - 99,782 (14.8%)
Extra - 78,750 (11.7%)

Total Tech/TechPlus - 334,254 (49.5%)

Total all classes - 674,792


As of February 22, 2007:

Novice - 22,896 (3.5%) Technician - 293,508 (44.8%) Technician Plus -
30,818 (4.7%) General - 130,138 (19.9%) Advanced - 69,050 (10.5%) Extra
- 108,270 (16.5%)

Total Tech/TechPlus - 324,326 (49.5%)

Total all classes - 654,680


As of July 22, 2009:

Novice - 17,362 (2.6%) Technician - 328,147 (48.7%) Technician Plus -
820 (0.1%) General - 148,270 (22.0%) Advanced - 61,060 (9.1%) Extra -
117,751 (17.5%)

Total Tech/TechPlus - 328,967 (48.8%)

Total all classes - 673,410


Changes:

From May 14, 2000, to February 22, 2007:

Novice - decrease of 26,433 Technician - increase of 88,114 Technician
Plus - decrease of 98,042 General - increase of 17,461 Advanced -
decrease of 30,732 Extra - increase of 29,520

Total Tech/TechPlus - decrease of 9,928

Total all classes - decrease of 20,112


From May 14, 2000, to July 22, 2009:

Novice - decrease of 31,967 Technician - increase of 122,753 Technician
Plus - decrease of 128,040 General - increase of 35,593 Advanced -
decrease of 38,722 Extra - increase of 39,001

Total Tech/TechPlus - decrease of 5,287

Total all classes - decrease of 1,382


From February 22, 2007, to July 22, 2009:

Novice - decrease of 5,534 Technician - increase of 34,639 Technician
Plus - decrease of 29,998 General - increase of 18,132 Advanced -
decrease of 7,990 Extra - increase of 9,481

Total Tech/TechPlus - increase of 4,641

Total all classes - increase of 18,730


73 de Jim, N2EY

These are the number of current, unexpired FCC-issued amateur radio
licenses held by individuals on the stated dates, and the percentage of
the total number of active licenses that class contains.

Percentages may not add up to exactly 100.0% due to rounding.

These totals do not include licenses that have expired but are in the
grace period, nor do they include club, military and other station-only
licenses.

Effective April 15, 2000, FCC no longer issued new Novice, Technician
Plus and Advanced class licenses, so the numbers of those license
classes have declined steadily since then.

Also since April 15, 2000, FCC has renewed all existing Technician Plus
licenses as Technician. The number of Technician Plus licenses still in
effect is now less than 1000, and by May 2010 they should all be gone.

It is therefore informative to consider the totals of the two classes,
since the Technician class includes a significant number of Technician
Plus licenses renewed as Technician.

On February 23, 2007, the last Morse Code test element, the 5 wpm
receiving test, was eliminated as a requirement.

The ARS License Numbers:

As of May 14, 2000:

Novice- 49,329 (7.3%) Technician - 205,394 (30.4%) Technician Plus -
128,860 (19.1%) General - 112,677 (16.7%) Advanced - 99,782 (14.8%)
Extra - 78,750 (11.7%)

Total Tech/TechPlus - 334,254 (49.5%)

Total all classes - 674,792


As of February 22, 2007:

Novice - 22,896 (3.5%) Technician - 293,508 (44.8%) Technician Plus -
30,818 (4.7%) General - 130,138 (19.9%) Advanced - 69,050 (10.5%) Extra
- 108,270 (16.5%)

Total Tech/TechPlus - 324,326 (49.5%)

Total all classes - 654,680


As of July 22, 2009:

Novice - 17,362 (2.6%) Technician - 328,147 (48.7%) Technician Plus -
820 (0.1%) General - 148,270 (22.0%) Advanced - 61,060 (9.1%) Extra -
117,751 (17.5%)

Total Tech/TechPlus - 328,967 (48.8%)

Total all classes - 673,410


Changes:

From May 14, 2000, to February 22, 2007:

Novice - decrease of 26,433 Technician - increase of 88,114 Technician
Plus - decrease of 98,042 General - increase of 17,461 Advanced -
decrease of 30,732 Extra - increase of 29,520

Total Tech/TechPlus - decrease of 9,928

Total all classes - decrease of 20,112


From May 14, 2000, to July 22, 2009:

Novice - decrease of 31,967 Technician - increase of 122,753 Technician
Plus - decrease of 128,040 General - increase of 35,593 Advanced -
decrease of 38,722 Extra - increase of 39,001

Total Tech/TechPlus - decrease of 5,287

Total all classes - decrease of 1,382


From February 22, 2007, to July 22, 2009:

Novice - decrease of 5,534 Technician - increase of 34,639 Technician
Plus - decrease of 29,998 General - increase of 18,132 Advanced -
decrease of 7,990 Extra - increase of 9,481

Total Tech/TechPlus - increase of 4,641

Total all classes - increase of 18,730


73 de Jim, N2EY

Expired in the grace period could be significant. Are they counted as
active or expired?

Interesting to note that we have actually seen growth during a sunspot
minima, and loss after 9/11 and the focus on Homeland Security.

On my 1976 callbook, it says:
"280,919 US licensed radio amateurs!
19,120 new licenses included, issued
by FCC since the 1975 edition."

On Aug 2, 4:02�pm, "JB" wrote:

Expired in the grace period could be significant.
�Are they counted as active or expired?

Grace period licenses are not included in the posted numbers.

FCC uses the term "expired" WRT amateur licenses to mean licenses that
have reached the end of their 10 year term without being renewed. A
license that is in the grace period is defined as...an expired license
that is in the grace period. Once the grace period ends, it's not a
license anymore and is removed from the database.

IMHO, with online renewal and both ARRL and W5YI sending reminders of
expiration, I suspect that most licenses that are in the grace period
more than a month or two will not be renewed.

Interesting to note that we have actually seen
growth during a sunspot
minima, and loss after 9/11 and the focus
on Homeland Security.

What actually happened, in broad terms, is this:

After the 2000 restructuring, the number of US ham licenses grew until
July, 2003. The total number of current, unexpired licenses held by
individuals reached about 683,000. (Sorry, I don't have exact numbers
for that date).

Then the numbers started to decline, until they were below the 2000
level. That decline continued until Feb 2007. Since then they have
begun to increase again, and if the trend continues we will soon exceed
the 2000 level.

73 de Jim, N2EY

On 2009-08-03, wrote:

Then the numbers started to decline, until they were below the 2000
level. That decline continued until Feb 2007. Since then they have
begun to increase again, and if the trend continues we will soon exceed
the 2000 level.

Numbers are numbers I suppose but the obvious weak and unavoidable link in
this sort of data is that it cannot include anyone who has died with an
active license until that license expires. And given that the average age
for radio amateurs has been increasing steadily, it's a good bet that there
are tens of thousands of deceased hams being included in the license totals.

The other immeasurable data is how many licensees are no longer active at
all yet religiously renew their license since it is free and can be done
with almost no effort? That number could be enormous and may hint at why
despite having nearly 700,000 names in the hopper, there are only some
150,000 members of the ARRL (not withstanding the naysayers).

If we make the same sort of assumptions as those in the life insurance
business, and we suppose that the median age for licensees is now over 60,
then between now and 2020 the number of licensees in the database will
shrink to below 300,000 due to attrition.

That is assuming we see the same paltry gains in new licensees as is seen at
the moment. So while there is some reason to be pleased that the numbers
appear to be going up, there remains an inevitable precipice in front of us.

73,
--
jeff

On Mon, 3 Aug 2009 12:18:24 EDT, Jeff Davis
wrote:

The other immeasurable data is how many licensees are no longer active at
all yet religiously renew their license since it is free and can be done
with almost no effort? That number could be enormous and may hint at why
despite having nearly 700,000 names in the hopper, there are only some
150,000 members of the ARRL (not withstanding the naysayers).

Good point. I know many people in my town who have a license (mostly
Technician) who rarely use it to transmit. My wife Bonnie is one of
them. She got her Technician license 9 years ago when her husband at
that time, Paul, got the ham radio bug, and pestered her to get
licensed so they could "enjoy the hobby together." Bonnie used her
license a couple of times to keep in touch with Paul when he took
walks out in the desert behind their house. Then seven years ago Paul
died. Bonnie and I got together, and were married the next year.
Since then, she hasn't transmitted at all. But we have changed
mailing addresses a few times, and we both update our licenses on the
FCC ULS site. And, when her licence expires next year, no doubt she
will renew it. But I consider her inactive.

Dick, AC7EL

On Aug 3, 12:18 pm, Jeff Davis wrote:

Numbers are numbers I suppose but the obvious weak and unavoidable link i
n
this sort of data is that it cannot include anyone who has died with an
active license until that license expires.

Or until the ham's family reports the death to FCC with the required
paperwork. This is common, and is usually driven by the desire to keep
the SK's call active and "in the family".

And given that the average age
for radio amateurs has been increasing steadily, it's a good bet that the
re
are tens of thousands of deceased hams being included in the license tota
ls.

I don't take it as a given that the average age of hams is increasing
steadily. I don't think anyone has a *scientific* number for the
average/median age for US hams.

Yes, one occasionally sees some number or other quoted for the "average
age", but not how it was derived. FCC doesn't have complete data
because they haven't consistently required birthdate info.

Sure, if one goes to a hamfest or club meeting, one sees a lot of folks
who are probably AARP-eligible. But are those folks a representative
sample? I know more than a few younger hams who don't show up at such
gatherings because they simply don't have the time.

But yes, there are probably a considerable number of hams in the
database who are SKs.

The other immeasurable data is how many licensees are no longer active at
all yet religiously renew their license since it is free and can be done
with almost no effort? That number could be enormous and may hint at why
despite having nearly 700,000 names in the hopper, there are only some
150,000 members of the ARRL (not withstanding the naysayers).

ARRL membership has been growing, too.

I suspect that there have always been a considerable number of
inactive-but-licensed hams. Particularly for the reasons you state:
renewing is free and easy to do.

If we make the same sort of assumptions as those in the life insurance
business, and we suppose that the median age for licensees is now over 60
,
then between now and 2020 the number of licensees in the database will
shrink to below 300,000 due to attrition.

But are those assumptions valid? Americans are living longer, having
fewer kids, having them later in life, and the median age of the
population as a whole is rising. IIRC, the median age for the US
population was between 39 and 40 years of age as of the 2000 census,
and had risen almost 5 years between the 1990 and 2000 census-takings.
I wonder what the 2010 census will tell us?

That is assuming we see the same paltry gains in new licensees as is seen
at
the moment. So while there is some reason to be pleased that the numbers
appear to be going up, there remains an inevitable precipice in front of
us.

Maybe. Or maybe the gains will continue. Remember that the license term
has been 10 years for more than a quarter-century now.

As for paltry gains, if my math is right, the past 2-1/2 years have
yielded growth of more than 2.8%. More important, the growth rate seems
to be increasing. Imagine the possibilities when the sunspots come
back...

73 de Jim, N2EY

wrote:

Sure, if one goes to a hamfest or club meeting, one sees a lot of folks
who are probably AARP-eligible. But are those folks a representative
sample? I know more than a few younger hams who don't show up at such
gatherings because they simply don't have the time.

But you cannot ignore the other end of the curve. How many licensed
hams aren't showing up because they are too old to travel?

Maybe hamfest attendees and club meetings aren't a representative sample
of the ham community. But if that's the case, it has always been the
case. I can't claim scientific accuracy, but the age mix that I
remember from a few decades ago was much younger, and that's through the
eyes of a kid who thought anyone who was over 40 was tottering on the
grave's edge.

It just seems intuitive to me that the population in the hobby is aging.
In order for it not to be, you would need to recruit enough new hams
who were young enough to offset the march of time for the rest of the
population. A lot of new licensees these days are middle aged, rather
than the teenagers we used to see. Although their age is lower than the
current mean age, you have to have more of them to offset the inertia of
incrementing everyone's age each year.

Not that there's much you can do about the issue even if you accept the
fact that we may be marching off a cliff. I applaud the ARRL's efforts
to interest young folks in the hobby, and I hope it's working better in
other localities. I don't see a lot of success here.

73, Steve KB9X

On 2009-08-03, wrote:

Yes, one occasionally sees some number or other quoted for the "average
age", but not how it was derived. FCC doesn't have complete data
because they haven't consistently required birthdate info.

That is true and any evidence is purely anecdotal. But we can make a few
assumptions based on the bubble of the 1950s when the growth of the amateur
service was meteoric. With the exception of those hams who were licensed as
pre-teens, most of the others would be past retirement age by now.

The same is now becoming true of those licensed in the 60s so while I have
no evidence or hard data, I think it is safe to say that the majority of
licensed radio amateurs in the US are now over 60 years old.

You are correct that folks are living longer these days and that will no
doubt work in our favor, but it is inevitable that we will begin losing hams
in much greater numbers as we approach 2020.

ARRL membership has been growing, too.

That has been a bright spot, in my opinion, but I only point it out because
some League detractors use the old line that the ARRL can only attract 25%
of licensed hams as an argument for how unpopular Newington is among the
base. I'd argue that it better reflects the actual number of active radio
amateurs since those who are no longer active would not likely maintain
league membership and the most active among us invariably do.

As for paltry gains, if my math is right, the past 2-1/2 years have
yielded growth of more than 2.8%. More important, the growth rate seems
to be increasing. Imagine the possibilities when the sunspots come
back...

I'm all for growth since I think we are in for a big dip in the not too
distant future, but I'm also not certain that there is any historic
correlation between growth in the service and sunspot activity. And if there
is, it might be bad news since Cycle 24 is now predicted to be the weakest
cycle in a century.

We probably won't be able to bring new hams onboard at a pace that will
match the attrition of the next decade, but that is no reason not to do all
that we can -- and one thing is to begin thinking about how we are going to
justify our continued occupation of radio spectrum with a lot fewer licensees.

It's a problem that Icom, Kenwood, Yaesu and the others are no doubt already
thinking about too...

--
73 de Jeff

"Jeff Davis" wrote in message
...


If we make the same sort of assumptions as those in the life insurance
business, and we suppose that the median age for licensees is now over 60,
then between now and 2020 the number of licensees in the database will
shrink to below 300,000 due to attrition.


I hope that you're wrong, Jeff, but it's a slim hope.

I expect that a generation from now (a couple of sunspot cycles) the number
of active (mark that word, "active) US amateurs will be under 10,000.

I moved to my current location 30-some years ago (in my late 30's). Joined
two active radio clubs (MWA for contesting, TCDXA for DXing). At that time,
most of the members of each club were about my age, or a little younger.
Most members of each were very active amateurs.

Today, 30 years later, most of the members of each club are about my age, or
a little older. Most are still very active, and both clubs are still very
vibrant, but between the two clubs (combined rosters about 300, but perhaps
really only about 200 hams due to dual memberships), there are only a
handful of members (maybe 25) under age 55, and maybe 5 or 10 in late 30's
or younger.

It's been a nice run.

73, de Hans, K0HB