wrote in message
ps.com...

wrote:
On 24 Dec 2006 07:10:34 -0800, wrote:


Robert Casey wrote:
Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples'
predictions
on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So who came
closest?
I know that I didn't.

That was N2EY's gig.

He posted about it a week or so ago, but it got buried under the rubble
of the Robesin wars.

he did not declare a winner

It hasn't been posted in the Fed Register yet... that could take
another 3 years...


While that is possible, it is much more likely (based on past history) that
it will be published in the Federal Register within 30 days of having been
posted on the FCC site. That would make it January 18 for publication. Then
it would normally be effective 30 days after that, which would make the
effectivity date February 17.

Or they may decide to get all their work caught up for the end of the year
and it could go into effect sooner.

Either way, I've got my VE team lined up with additional members in case we
get an unusually large number of applicants in Feb, Mar, & Apr. After that
it should settle down to the normal or only slightly higher than normal
number of applicants.

Dee, N8UZE

Dee Flint wrote:
wrote in message
ps.com...

wrote:
On 24 Dec 2006 07:10:34 -0800, wrote:


Robert Casey wrote:
Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples'
predictions
on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses. So who came
closest?
I know that I didn't.

That was N2EY's gig.

He posted about it a week or so ago, but it got buried under the rubble
of the Robesin wars.

he did not declare a winner

It hasn't been posted in the Fed Register yet... that could take
another 3 years...


While that is possible, it is much more likely (based on past history) that
it will be published in the Federal Register within 30 days of having been
posted on the FCC site. That would make it January 18 for publication. Then
it would normally be effective 30 days after that, which would make the
effectivity date February 17.

Or they may decide to get all their work caught up for the end of the year
and it could go into effect sooner.

Or they may want to push it through before the Democrats have control.

Either way, I've got my VE team lined up with additional members in case we
get an unusually large number of applicants in Feb, Mar, & Apr. After that
it should settle down to the normal or only slightly higher than normal
number of applicants.

Dee, N8UZE

Stock up on the no-doze and the baby wipes. You may have some long
sessions!

wrote in
ups.com:


Dee Flint wrote:
wrote in message
ps.com...

wrote:
On 24 Dec 2006 07:10:34 -0800,
wrote:


Robert Casey wrote:
Back a year or three, there was a thread asking for peoples'
predictions on when the FCC would do no-code for all licenses.
So who came closest? I know that I didn't.

That was N2EY's gig.

He posted about it a week or so ago, but it got buried under the
rubble of the Robesin wars.

he did not declare a winner

It hasn't been posted in the Fed Register yet... that could take
another 3 years...


While that is possible, it is much more likely (based on past history)
that it will be published in the Federal Register within 30 days of
having been posted on the FCC site. That would make it January 18 for
publication. Then it would normally be effective 30 days after that,
which would make the effectivity date February 17.

Or they may decide to get all their work caught up for the end of the
year and it could go into effect sooner.

Or they may want to push it through before the Democrats have control.

Either way, I've got my VE team lined up with additional members in
case we get an unusually large number of applicants in Feb, Mar, &
Apr. After that it should settle down to the normal or only slightly
higher than normal number of applicants.

Dee, N8UZE

Stock up on the no-doze and the baby wipes. You may have some long
sessions!


I'd say we will get more Generals, including some who are new hams, and a
few new Techs. There are definitely some Techs who are no longer active due
to cellphones, but as long as they remain licenced it doesn't affect the
question.

There is definitely a problem in that you can no longer get test manuals in
Radio Shack, or in any other store AFAIK. I tried to buy a General book for
my XYL yesterday, but couldn't.

My vote is 2-6% increase.

73 de N3KIP

"Alun L. Palmer" wrote in message
. ..

I'd say we will get more Generals, including some who are new hams, and a
few new Techs. There are definitely some Techs who are no longer active
due
to cellphones, but as long as they remain licenced it doesn't affect the
question.

There is definitely a problem in that you can no longer get test manuals
in
Radio Shack, or in any other store AFAIK. I tried to buy a General book
for
my XYL yesterday, but couldn't.

My vote is 2-6% increase.

73 de N3KIP

I've added your guess to the list.

I hope that your prediction is correct. But since the non-hams I have
talked to about ham radio don't know what the requirements for a license
are, they are not apt to jump into ham radio because the code test was
dropped. Most of them glaze over at the mention of a license and we never
even get to the requirements.

I expect that most of the active Techs will upgrade to General or even
Extra. Beyond that, I don't expect to see much change.

Over the long haul, I don't expect much change. Compared to other
countries, we actually have a fairly high percentage of people who have ham
licenses. Other than Japan, most countries have around 0.1% (or less) of
their population licensed. We have about 0.2% which puts us very high on
the list. I would expect our ham population numbers to stabilize but
wouldn't make any guesses as to what that number will be.

I'd really like to use a longer baseline for this pool but I don't think
very many of us are really up for a 5 or 10 year pool.

Dee, N8UZE

"Alun L. Palmer" wrote in message
. ..

[snip]


There is definitely a problem in that you can no longer get test manuals
in
Radio Shack, or in any other store AFAIK. I tried to buy a General book
for
my XYL yesterday, but couldn't.


I think this symptomatic of the real issue. Our field don't get enough
exposure to the general public and materials on it are hard to come by
unless you already know that ham radio exists and you use the internet to
find study materials.

Dee, N8UZE