wrote:

I don't remember writing anything like that. But I
could be mistaken about it.

I tried to find the attribution on Google, but there is so much noise in
this group it made wading thru hundreds of messages impossible. Perhaps it
was Dee or another regular poster who alluded to the fact. I wasn't
attempting to put words in your mouth -- I remember someone making the
comment, but cannot find the post.


If it were *really* a barrier,
we will see big jumps in both the number of new
hams and the number of upgraders. The ARS
License Numbers thread will tell the tale.

Right. And my own anecdotal observations show me that the code test was
never a real barrier to entry. It isn't the code test that has turned people
away, it is simply that "radio" isn't "sexy".

This is why I predicted that the result from these changes will be 0 to -1%
growth. What the changes may do is tap a few new people into the ARS and
slow the rate of decline for a year -- but I really suspect what we'll see
over the next 6 months is a huge number of upgrades, and very little in the
way of "growth" in new hams (over the rate they're already added to the
ARS).


IMHO, the real "barrier to growth" wasn't the license
test requirements at all. Rather, it is simple lack of
publicity about amateur radio.

That could be be. Remember the explosion of CB radio after "Smokey and the
Bandit" and similar movies in the 70's?


Consider this: When's the last time you saw
Amateur Radio portrayed in the movies or on
TV in a positive and accurate manner, and in
such a way that a nonham could understand that
amateur radio exists today and they could be a
ham if interested?

Even if they did put it in a movie, what would it show? Someone talking to
another dude 1/2way across the world? Most people would say "what's the big
deal, I can do that too" as they pull their credit-card-sized cell phone out
of their shirt pocket.

73
kh6hz