Larry Roll K3LT wrote:

Now that it seems as though code testing will finally be abolished in the
ARS, let's amuse ourselves with a bit of speculation as to what this will
mean in terms of future growth in the numbers of licensed amateur radio
operators in the United States. What do you think will happen? How
much growth do you think will occur, and how fast?

I predict that there will be no significant growth in new licensees.

I dunno, Larry, Carl Stevenson and his Magpies of Morbidity have so traumatized
themselves
and we-don't-know-how-many others among the uninformed into believing that Morse is
nothing
short of torture, to the point that there may indeed be quite an influx of new
codeless hams.

I believe, however, that Hans is right - most of the people who want to be on HF are
already
there, given the ridiculously easy testing of the past couple decades of the VE
system. But that
kind of conclusion is of the "eye of the beholder" sort where the attitude of the
testee is paramount.
If he thinks it's "hard", then hard is what it is.

You see, what those folks can't know is that Morse is a language, for those who
learn it to skill.
When you sit and listen to it coming in as words, rather than attempting to
laborously convert "dots and dashes", in their vernacular, into letters, then letters
into words, it is an entirely different phenomena. You and I know that. They don't




Now, all we need to do is define the term "significant growth." We currently
have around 600-some kilohams in the US. I'd call a five percent growth
factor, or 30,000 newly-licensed radio amateurs, to be significant. Let's
give this a year to happen. I say it won't. How say you? Keep in mind
that at this stage of the discussion, I'm just trying to establish reasonable
parameters -- so let's all weigh in and try to arrive at a consensus as to
what any future growth could be. Then we can commit to our numbers
and see who gets it right -- or at least close.

73 de Larry, K3LT