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July 15th 03, 05:44 PM

Larry Roll K3LT

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In article ,
(N2EY) writes:

I say the total number of US hams will grow to 700,000 in about a
year, 710,000 in two years, and then the growth will slow down to at
best 5,000 per year.

Or:

700,000 after 1 year
710,000 after 2 years
715,000 after 3 years
720,000 after 4 years

Etc.

(based on a starting point of about 688,000)

Or to put it another way:

Growth of ~12,000 the first year
Growth of ~10,000 the second year
Growth of ~5,000 the third and following years.

Current growth is about 3,000 per year.

Keep in mind
that at this stage of the discussion, I'm just trying to establish
reasonable
parameters -- so let's all weigh in and try to arrive at a consensus as to
what any future growth could be. Then we can commit to our numbers
and see who gets it right -- or at least close.

I hope my predicted numbers are too low.

73 de Jim, N2EY

Jim:

Your predictions seem to be right in line with my own expectations.
However, as you say, there are a lot of variables that cannot be
accounted for with any predictable certainty. I agree that there will
be a great deal of upgrading activity, particularly in the first three
years. I wonder how the FCC will deal with all the upgrades, since
their overall goal seems to be to reduce the administrative burden
imposed by the ARS?

73 de Larry, K3LT

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