In article , Larry Roll
K3LT wrote:

Now that it seems as though code testing will finally be abolished in the
ARS, let's amuse ourselves with a bit of speculation as to what this will
mean in terms of future growth in the numbers of licensed amateur radio
operators in the United States. What do you think will happen? How
much growth do you think will occur, and how fast?

I predict that there will be no significant growth in new licensees.
Now, all we need to do is define the term "significant growth." We currently
have around 600-some kilohams in the US. I'd call a five percent growth
factor, or 30,000 newly-licensed radio amateurs, to be significant. Let's
give this a year to happen. I say it won't. How say you? Keep in mind
that at this stage of the discussion, I'm just trying to establish reasonable
parameters -- so let's all weigh in and try to arrive at a consensus as to
what any future growth could be. Then we can commit to our numbers
and see who gets it right -- or at least close.

73 de Larry, K3LT


Larry,

We presently had had an average of .05% growth per year since the new
licensing regs took effect in 2000. at those rates we might see 6%
growth in the decade. This is about 80% LESS growth than we have seen
in the last two decades. Other than possibly a one or two year mini
spurt in growth I do not see it sustaining. Lowering the code
requirement to 5 WPM did virtually nothing not increase year to year
growth, why would one believe that eliminating it would?

There is a least one person posting some astounding numbers based on
the FCC database on the QRZ.com forums which purport to show that 97%
of no code techs are dropping out after the term of the license
expires. Of course there is only about 6 months of FCC data being used
as a baseline due to the grace periods.

Perhaps the no code requirement for HF (if adopted by the FCC) will
keep more of the technician class in the ARS than the numbers predict.

73
George
K3UD

(ex W3GEO)