In article , "Carl R. Stevenson"
writes:

What WILL be the end of ham radio is a lack of significant
growth ...

Let's get it straight - is dropping Element 1 going to give us lots more growth
or not?

For a historical context, here are some numbers on the growth of US amateur
radio in the past 30 years or so. All numbers are rounded off but are accurate
to within 2%. Sources are various Callbooks and US census data.:

US Hams:

1970: 270,000
1980: 350,000
1990: 514,000
2000: 680,000

Growth Rate:

1970 to 1980: 29.6% (120,000 net growth)
1980 to 1990: 46.8% (164,000 net growth)
1990 to 2000: 32.2% (166,000 net growth)

Oddly enough, percentage growth slowed down after the introduction of code test
waivers and the Tech lost its code test. The total net growth in the '90s was
almost exactly the same as in the '80s, even though the US population was
larger.


As a percentage of the total US population:

Year - US population/annual growth - US hams - % hams
1970: 203 million 270,000 0.133%
1980: 227 million 350,000 0.154%
1990: 249 million 514,000 0.206%
2000: 281 million 680,000 0.242%

US hams as a percentage of population increased 0.021% in the '70s, 0.052% in
the '80s and 0.036% in the '90s. So the growth slowed down after the
introduction of code test waivers and the Tech lost its code test.

It stands to reason that if code testing were an 'unnecessary, arbitrary, and
distasteful (to many) barrier to entry', those who were interested, but
dissuaded by those unnecessary barriers would "jump in." when the 'barriers'
were eliminated. Except that's not what happened, in either absolute number of
hams or percentage growth. Growth in total hams was almost exactly the same
during the '90s, compared to the '80s, and the percentage growth actually
dropped.

Current number of US hams is about 687,000. Current US population is left as an
exercise for the reader.

as Alun has said, the Morse test is a "no sell" for
many folks who would otherwise make fine hams.

I think the salesperson can have a lot to do with whether a sale is made or
not...;-)

73 de Jim, N2EY