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![]() What is missing is how much current licenses are used. With that data we could guesstimate expirations. That would take a study that the FCC doesn't have the resources to fund and one the ARRL may not want to know the answer to. There may be a point in the future where the new loss of members begins to increase but there is no way to forecast that because licenses are good for 10 years and there is no way to project future expirations because we don't have any idea what current license usage is. Measuring how crowded the bands are? But that would require measurements from years ago to mean much. Assuming that most hams using their license spend about 2 to 3% time transmitting and the rest listening (tuning around the bands looking for interesting DX or rag chews) one could get a rough idea how many active hams exist. Do one measurement on a contest weekend, and another on a non contest weekend. From a QTH in the midwest. One would have to figure how many hams are in propagation range at the time of measurement. |
#2
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![]() robert casey wrote: What is missing is how much current licenses are used. With that data we could guesstimate expirations. That would take a study that the FCC doesn't have the resources to fund and one the ARRL may not want to know the answer to. There may be a point in the future where the new loss of members begins to increase but there is no way to forecast that because licenses are good for 10 years and there is no way to project future expirations because we don't have any idea what current license usage is. Measuring how crowded the bands are? But that would require measurements from years ago to mean much. Assuming that most hams using their license spend about 2 to 3% time transmitting and the rest listening (tuning around the bands looking for interesting DX or rag chews) one could get a rough idea how many active hams exist. Do one measurement on a contest weekend, and another on a non contest weekend. From a QTH in the midwest. One would have to figure how many hams are in propagation range at the time of measurement. Reminds me of an old giggler. Guy tunes around looking for a hole on 20M, finds one and asks "Is this frequency in use?" A snarly 30 over nine signal pops up "Yes it's in use, I'm listening on it." w3rv |
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