wrote:

John Kasupski wrote:

I can recall back in about 1975 or so, there was a proposal for a
no-code "Communicator Class" license. It was shot down, largely due to
opposition by ARRL.


By widespread opposition by the amateur radio community. And it wasn't
a stand-alone proposal - it was part of an FCC proposed restructuring
that would have resulted in a 7 class "two ladder" license system, less
than a decade after the "incentive licensing" changes.

1975 was also when cb was booming and FCC proposing to convert 220 to
"Class E" cb.


It was along about the same time that computers
first became reasonably affordable for home use.


You might want to check the dates, costs, and capabilities of what
you're calling a "computer", John.


A generation of
technically inclined young people suddenly had an alternative
to ham radio and its code testing.


Sorry, that doesn't make sense.

Those early small computers weren't much in the way of communication
devices. Look up what a 300 baud modem for a TRS-80 cost...

I think its called technical time shifting, Jim. Somehow all those
early computers were imbued with all the features that the new ones
have. That Timex computer can do everything my G5 can do apparently! 8^)

The whole argument does this sort of thing. Assuming that for some
reason people make a conscious choice between Ham radio and computers
(and apparently between a hobby and a vocation) doesn't make sense to
me. If they had more in common, maybe, but computers as a hobby tends to
involve surfing the net these days, and as a vocation it means either
working with programs or programming. The two don't meet except at the
edges.

Technically-inclined young people have *always* had lots of
alternatives. Look up "Williamson amplifier" and see how many "hi-fi"
folks were building their own audio systems in the 1940s and later.
Lots of other examples.

Maybe people who are interested in radio would go into a radio type
hobby, and people who are interested in other things would be doing
other things. Simple sort of concept.

Or of course we could assume that the Morse code test was what kept
people from being hams, and then try to explain away why the first batch
of Hams who didn't have to take a code test are the group that comprises
the biggest part of the recent drop-off? Seems a strange conclusion.

In my youth the hottest thing for the techno-kids was - cars. Old cars,
new cars, fixing up junkers, customizing, improving performance, you
name it. For less than the cost of a new ham rig, a kid could buy an
old car, fix it up with simple tools and easy-to-get parts, and get it
on the road. Even kids without licenses or the wherewithal to have a
car would help friends work on their cars, both for the experience and
in the hope of rides once the car was running.

No form of radio could compete with wheels.



A Timex-Sinclair 1000 could be had for
around $50, an Atari or Commodore 8-bit computer could be had
for a
fraction of what ham rigs cost (since Heathkit and many other
kit
manufacturers vanished around this time period as well).


In 1977 I bought and built a Heath HW-2036 2 meter rig. Cost a bit over
$300. Still have it and it still works. Heath lasted a while longer
after 1977.


Anyone using Timex-Sinclairs for ham use?

Let's see...spend weeks learning an arcane code from the 1800s and
then spend hundreds of bucks building a station, or skip the
testing
and spend $200 or so on a computer.


I built ham stations for a less than $100 in those days. You might want
to see how little a $200 computer would actually do. And you needed a
TV set or monitor to use it.


Seems to me that the biggest thing they could be used for is learning
Basic programming. Okay.


Thousands voted with their feet,
and the best of a generation or two or three said to hell with radio
and went into computers instead.

"The best of a generation" went into computers? Hardly.

I missed that one.



Now, 25 years later, hams lament the declining number of
licensees as
posted by N2EY every other week. It occurs to few that the guys who
might have become hams 25-30 years ago if it weren't for the
code test
are now holding down good paying jobs in the computer industry and
probably wouldn't be interested in a ham ticket now if you
handed them one gratis.


Apples and oranges.


Who is lamenting anyhow? I wish those new old Hams would have stuck
around, but beyond that, big deal.

What I take from the statistics is that an early generation of Hams got
their licenses without a whole lot of actual interest in radio. These
were the "honeydo" hams, who used 2 meter repeaters to get a shopping
list or the like on the way home from work. Their interests lay along
those lines.

Well along came cell phones, and the honeydo'ers went to that. Cell
phones are a better technology for getting a shopping list than using a
repeater.

Another subset of the dropoff is Hams who were somewhat interested in
radio, but became bored. They dropped off too.

My prediction of what will happen after Element 1 is history is that
there will be more new hams, and a higher attrition rate. People with
only a passing interest will become Hams. There is not likely to be a
net gain. I won't pass judgment on this being good or bad. It is just
different.

- Mike KB3EIA -

Michael Coslo wrote:
wrote:

John Kasupski wrote:

I can recall back in about 1975 or so, there was a proposal for a
no-code "Communicator Class" license. It was shot down, largely due to
opposition by ARRL.

By widespread opposition by the amateur radio community. And it wasn't
a stand-alone proposal - it was part of an FCC proposed restructuring
that would have resulted in a 7 class "two ladder" license system, less
than a decade after the "incentive licensing" changes.

1975 was also when cb was booming and FCC proposing to convert 220 to
"Class E" cb.

It was along about the same time that computers
first became reasonably affordable for home use.

You might want to check the dates, costs, and capabilities of what
you're calling a "computer", John.

A generation of
technically inclined young people suddenly had an alternative
to ham radio and its code testing.

Sorry, that doesn't make sense.

Those early small computers weren't much in the way of communication
devices. Look up what a 300 baud modem for a TRS-80 cost...

I think its called technical time shifting, Jim. Somehow all those
early computers were imbued with all the features that the new ones
have. That Timex computer can do everything my G5 can do apparently! 8^)

HAW!

My first "home computer" was a VIC-20 that I got used for $100. Needed
a TV set to use it. No printer, no communications. The least expensive
floppy drive for it cost almost $200 new...

The whole argument does this sort of thing.

You might consider looking up the dates and prices of some of the
hardware John mentions. The facts are somewhat startling.

Of course a lot of money could be saved, then as now, by buying a used
computer. That was because they lost value rapidly as newer models came
out.

Assuming that for some
reason people make a conscious choice between Ham radio and computers
(and apparently between a hobby and a vocation) doesn't make sense to
me. If they had more in common, maybe, but computers as a hobby tends to
involve surfing the net these days, and as a vocation it means either
working with programs or programming. The two don't meet except at the
edges.

I think the point is that computers somehow stole the spotlight from
ham radio. Perhaps that's true - but would eliminating the code test
have done anything to prevent it?

First off, the field of "computing" covers a lot of ground, of which
communcations/networking is only one part. There's also word and
document processing, accounting (in many forms), graphics and image
applications (again in many forms), games, training/educational
applications (like learning Morse Code...), and much more that can be
done on a stand-alone PC. Plus all the associated hardware.

Ham radio is communications, remote control, associated hardware, and
not much else, really.

Technically-inclined young people have *always* had lots of
alternatives. Look up "Williamson amplifier" and see how many "hi-fi"
folks were building their own audio systems in the 1940s and later.
Lots of other examples.

Maybe people who are interested in radio would go into a radio type
hobby, and people who are interested in other things would be doing
other things. Simple sort of concept.

Yup.

Or of course we could assume that the Morse code test was what kept
people from being hams, and then try to explain away why the first batch
of Hams who didn't have to take a code test are the group that comprises
the biggest part of the recent drop-off? Seems a strange conclusion.

Whole bunch of factors. For one thing, since FCC has been renewing all
Tech Pluses as Techs for more than 5-1/2 years, you can't assume that a
Tech isn't code-tested just from the license class.

In my youth the hottest thing for the techno-kids was - cars. Old cars,
new cars, fixing up junkers, customizing, improving performance, you
name it. For less than the cost of a new ham rig, a kid could buy an
old car, fix it up with simple tools and easy-to-get parts, and get it
on the road. Even kids without licenses or the wherewithal to have a
car would help friends work on their cars, both for the experience and
in the hope of rides once the car was running.

No form of radio could compete with wheels.

That sort of thing has become a niche activity. Part of the reason is
that cars are more complex and harder to work on. Another is that
increased affluence, decreased average family size and the perception
of a car as a necessity have made it more likely that parents will help
a kid get a car, rather than the kid being expected to do it all on
his/her own.

A Timex-Sinclair 1000 could be had for
around $50, an Atari or Commodore 8-bit computer could be had
for a
fraction of what ham rigs cost (since Heathkit and many other
kit
manufacturers vanished around this time period as well).

In 1977 I bought and built a Heath HW-2036 2 meter rig. Cost a bit over
$300. Still have it and it still works. Heath lasted a while longer
after 1977.

Anyone using Timex-Sinclairs for ham use?

I dunno, but the old 2036 still perks. Lots of older ham gear is still
perfectly usable today, where old computers are usually just
curiosities.

Let's see...spend weeks learning an arcane code from the 1800s and
then spend hundreds of bucks building a station, or skip the
testing and spend $200 or so on a computer.

More like $200 on a *modem*...

Those early computers required that you learn all sorts of arcane
'codes' to make them work. A typo could cause all kinds of havoc, too.

And the models changed relatively quickly so that what you learned on
one system was usually not very useful on a newer one. The time spent
to learn Morse Code is/was trivial compared to the time needed to get
familiar with a new system.

I built ham stations for a less than $100 in those days.

Here are some pictures of a receiver (part of the Southgate Type 4) I
built in the early 1970s for about $10.

http://www.qsl.net/k5bcq/Jim/SilverRX1.jpg

http://www.qsl.net/k5bcq/Jim/SilverRX2.jpg

http://www.qsl.net/k5bcq/Jim/SilverRX3.jpg

http://www.qsl.net/k5bcq/Jim/SilverRX4.jpg

http://www.qsl.net/k5bcq/Jim/SilverRX6.jpg

Almost all the parts came from old TVs, radios, and surplus military
gear. I had access to a machine shop so I cut and bent the chassis,
brackets and panels from some sheet aluminum scraps, and machined some
of the shaft extenders and adapters from brass rod.

The reason for the terminal strip and bunch of resistors on near the
rear edge of the rx was to permit the use of tubes with odd heater
voltages by changing jumpers.

Some may scoff at the parts and methods used, but the fact is that the
rx worked very well for its intended purpose. It was stable, selective,
easy and fun to use and I had many many QSOs with it and its matching
converter, transmitter and transmatch.

You might want
to see how little a $200 computer would actually do. And you needed a
TV set or monitor to use it.

Seems to me that the biggest thing they could be used for is learning
Basic programming. Okay.

I think you mean BASIC programming. And who uses BASIC today? Heck,
most people with computers don't write software, they simply use
applications written by others.

Thousands voted with their feet,
and the best of a generation or two or three said to hell with radio
and went into computers instead.

"The best of a generation" went into computers? Hardly.

I missed that one.

I guess someone who decided to become a doctor or nurse rather than go
into computers wasn't 'the best' of their generation, huh?

Now, 25 years later, hams lament the declining number of
licensees as
posted by N2EY every other week. It occurs to few that the guys who
might have become hams 25-30 years ago if it weren't for the
code test
are now holding down good paying jobs in the computer industry and
probably wouldn't be interested in a ham ticket now if you
handed them one gratis.

The fact is that most people 25-30 years ago wouldn't have been
interested in a ham ticket back then either, with or without code test.

Apples and oranges.

Who is lamenting anyhow? I wish those new old Hams would have stuck
around, but beyond that, big deal.

What I take from the statistics is that an early generation of Hams got
their licenses without a whole lot of actual interest in radio. These
were the "honeydo" hams, who used 2 meter repeaters to get a shopping
list or the like on the way home from work. Their interests lay along
those lines.

Nothing wrong with that, either. But it is radio as a means to an end,
not an end in itself.

Well along came cell phones, and the honeydo'ers went to that. Cell
phones are a better technology for getting a shopping list than using a
repeater.

Some "honeydo" hams found themselves interested in radio beyond the
honeydo aspect. Others didn't.

Another subset of the dropoff is Hams who were somewhat interested in
radio, but became bored. They dropped off too.

Then there's the big ones: Antennas, the sunspot cycle, equipment
costs, and lifestyles.

My prediction of what will happen after Element 1 is history is that
there will be more new hams, and a higher attrition rate. People with
only a passing interest will become Hams. There is not likely to be a
net gain. I won't pass judgment on this being good or bad. It is just
different.

Let's look at history, shall we? Say from the end of WW2 to the present
time...

After WW2, there were about 60,000 US hams - a tiny fraction of what we
have today, even accounting for the lower population then.

In the postwar years the number of hams grew rapidly, in part because
some servicemen had learned radio theory and Morse Code in the
military, in part because of increased affluence, improved technology,
and pent-up demand. Lots of other reasons, too. By 1950 there were
almost 100,000 US hams.

Then in 1951 there came a restructuring that created new license
classes and renamed the old ones. Supposedly the restructuring would
have made it much harder to get a full-priviliges ham license, but in
late 1962 the FCC gave all ham operating priviliges to Generals and
above. The growth of US ham radio continued until about 1964 at a rate
that pushed license totals up to about a quarter million.

Some see that era as a golden age for the ARS, and in some ways it was.
But it must be recalled how big, heavy and expensive new ham equipment
was in those times, the constant problem of TVI, etc.

But about 1964 the growth just stopped. The number of US hams hovered
around a quarter million for several years in the 1960s, despite the
booming population and general affluence.

Then in 1968 and 1969 came "incentive licensing", which made it
*harder* to get a full-privileges license. Inflation made equipment
more expensive and times got tough with the stagflation of the 1970s.
Yet from about 1970 onward the number of US hams grew and grew,
reaching 350,000 by 1979, and 550,000 by the mid 1980s.
*Before* there were code waivers, and when all US ham licenses required
a code test!

The numbers continued to increase in the 1990s. But even though the
code and written testing requirements of the '90s were far less than
what was required in the 1970s and 1980s, the growth slowed down.

73 de Jim, N2EY

wrote


I think you mean BASIC programming. And who uses BASIC today?


Good old MSBASIC has morphed into a slick RAD IDE called Visual Basic. It, and
others of that ilk like Borland Delphi (PASCAL in an object-oriented dress), are
very popular with computer hobbiests.


Heck, most people with computers don't write software, they simply use
applications written by others.

"Heck, most hams don't build radios, they simply use radios built by others."



but in late 1962 the FCC gave all ham operating priviliges to Generals and
above.


No they didn't. Some privs (satelite stations, as at least one example) were
reserved for Amateur Extras into the 70's.

But other than some isolated privs like that, General, Conditional, Advanced,
and Extra all had very similar "full" privileges going back to the early 50's.
Disincentive licensing changed that in the late 60's.

Beep beep
de Hans, K0HB

KØHB wrote:
wrote

Heck, most people with computers don't write software,
they simply use
applications written by others.

"Heck, most hams don't build radios, they simply use
radios built by others."

Hardware vs. software, but right you are, Hans.

Of course some of us do build radios - and computers...

but in late 1962

TYPO!

1952

the FCC gave all ham operating priviliges to Generals and
above.

No they didn't.

Yes, it was 1952. Actually, the announcement of the change
was in December of 1952 but didn't go into effect until February of
1953.

Some privs (satelite stations, as at least one example) were
reserved for Amateur Extras into the 70's.

I checked my 1962 copy of the ARRL License Manual, which has a reprint
of the entire FCC section on regulations for the amateur service, plus
selected parts of the Communications Act. There's no mention of special
privileges for Advanceds or Extras at all.
No specific mention of satellite or repeaters, either.

The rules changed in 1967 with the first phase of incentive licensing,
so maybe somewhere in there the verbiage about satellites got put in.

But other than some isolated privs like that,
General, Conditional, Advanced,
and Extra all had very similar "full" privileges going back to the early 50's.

Yep. February 1953 to November 1968.

Disincentive licensing changed that in the late 60's.

November 22 1968 and again in 1969 - when Generals, Conditionals and
Advanceds lost access to parts of some bands.

I remember well - I'd just earned the Advanced in the summer of 1968,
had full privilges for a few weeks, and then they were gone.

73 de Jim, N2EY

wrote:
KØHB wrote:
cut


I remember well - I'd just earned the Advanced in the summer of 1968,
had full privilges for a few weeks, and then they were gone.

and you are still taking no chance that the rest of us will know you
were cheated back then

I agree you were cheated and the ARRL with the FCC ****ed up and realy
screwed Ham radio, and ham

could we please move on to say this century sometime

73 de Jim, N2EY

My oh MY....he agrees. Must be on his meds finally.

Dan/W4NTI

"an_old_friend" wrote in message
oups.com...

wrote:
KØHB wrote:
cut


I remember well - I'd just earned the Advanced in the summer of 1968,
had full privilges for a few weeks, and then they were gone.

and you are still taking no chance that the rest of us will know you
were cheated back then

I agree you were cheated and the ARRL with the FCC ****ed up and realy
screwed Ham radio, and ham

could we please move on to say this century sometime

73 de Jim, N2EY

Dan/W4NTI wrote:
My oh MY....he agrees. Must be on his meds finally.

more of your hate filled bile

who peed in your cheerios Dany boy?

I have always agreed that Jim and other got screwed back then

but (he and others) are still whining about it after 37 years

OTOH some good news it seems the last of the whing about how CB band
freqs were stolen from the ARS seem to be finaly over (but with the
last 5 years

Dan/W4NTI

"an_old_friend" wrote in message
oups.com...

wrote:
KØHB wrote:
cut


I remember well - I'd just earned the Advanced in the summer of 1968,
had full privilges for a few weeks, and then they were gone.

and you are still taking no chance that the rest of us will know you
were cheated back then

I agree you were cheated and the ARRL with the FCC ****ed up and realy
screwed Ham radio, and ham

could we please move on to say this century sometime

73 de Jim, N2EY

wrote:
Michael Coslo wrote:

wrote:


John Kasupski wrote:

I think its called technical time shifting, Jim. Somehow all those
early computers were imbued with all the features that the new ones
have. That Timex computer can do everything my G5 can do apparently! 8^)


HAW!

My first "home computer" was a VIC-20 that I got used for $100.

Same here. I got mine with the drive and a b/w 5" monitor for $25.
I wanted it for RTTY to replace an old mod 15 TTY machine.

Needed
a TV set to use it. No printer, no communications. The least expensive
floppy drive for it cost almost $200 new...

I quickly upgraded to a C-64 with RGB monitor, extra memory and a
printer, all used.

The whole argument does this sort of thing.


You might consider looking up the dates and prices of some of the
hardware John mentions. The facts are somewhat startling.

Of course a lot of money could be saved, then as now, by buying a used
computer. That was because they lost value rapidly as newer models came
out.

There are some bargains out there. I routinely see 1.2 or 1.4 gb
machines with monitors and keyboards for $100-175.


Assuming that for some
reason people make a conscious choice between Ham radio and computers
(and apparently between a hobby and a vocation) doesn't make sense to
me. If they had more in common, maybe, but computers as a hobby tends to
involve surfing the net these days, and as a vocation it means either
working with programs or programming. The two don't meet except at the
edges.


I think the point is that computers somehow stole the spotlight from
ham radio. Perhaps that's true - but would eliminating the code test
have done anything to prevent it?

Not really. If you are interested in becoming a ham, you find a way to
become a ham. Most hams I know are computer users as well. The two are
not mutually exclusive.

First off, the field of "computing" covers a lot of ground, of which
communcations/networking is only one part. There's also word and
document processing, accounting (in many forms), graphics and image
applications (again in many forms), games, training/educational
applications (like learning Morse Code...), and much more that can be
done on a stand-alone PC. Plus all the associated hardware.

Look at the things a ham might do with a computer. I use mine for
Packet Cluster DX spots, routine logging, contest logging, awards
tracking, propagation forcasting, RTTY/AMTOR/Pactor operation, satellite
tracking, antenna modeling, electronic calculations and more.

Ham radio is communications, remote control, associated hardware, and
not much else, really.

Technically-inclined young people have *always* had lots of
alternatives. Look up "Williamson amplifier" and see how many "hi-fi"
folks were building their own audio systems in the 1940s and later.
Lots of other examples.

Maybe people who are interested in radio would go into a radio type
hobby, and people who are interested in other things would be doing
other things. Simple sort of concept.


Yup.

Or of course we could assume that the Morse code test was what kept
people from being hams, and then try to explain away why the first batch
of Hams who didn't have to take a code test are the group that comprises
the biggest part of the recent drop-off? Seems a strange conclusion.


Whole bunch of factors. For one thing, since FCC has been renewing all
Tech Pluses as Techs for more than 5-1/2 years, you can't assume that a
Tech isn't code-tested just from the license class.

In my youth the hottest thing for the techno-kids was - cars. Old cars,
new cars, fixing up junkers, customizing, improving performance, you
name it. For less than the cost of a new ham rig, a kid could buy an
old car, fix it up with simple tools and easy-to-get parts, and get it
on the road. Even kids without licenses or the wherewithal to have a
car would help friends work on their cars, both for the experience and
in the hope of rides once the car was running.

No form of radio could compete with wheels.


That sort of thing has become a niche activity. Part of the reason is
that cars are more complex and harder to work on. Another is that
increased affluence, decreased average family size and the perception
of a car as a necessity have made it more likely that parents will help
a kid get a car, rather than the kid being expected to do it all on
his/her own.

I think most kids are still interesting in adding chrome doodads,
lights, fancy tires and very hefty stereo sets which will shake a
quarter mile of asphalt.


A Timex-Sinclair 1000 could be had for
around $50, an Atari or Commodore 8-bit computer could be had
for a
fraction of what ham rigs cost (since Heathkit and many other
kit
manufacturers vanished around this time period as well).

In 1977 I bought and built a Heath HW-2036 2 meter rig. Cost a bit over
$300. Still have it and it still works. Heath lasted a while longer
after 1977.


Anyone using Timex-Sinclairs for ham use?


I dunno, but the old 2036 still perks. Lots of older ham gear is still
perfectly usable today, where old computers are usually just
curiosities.

I had a 2036 but I had to keep a diddle stick handy for touching up the
VCO periodically. I later had the VF-7401, a bit better beast.


Let's see...spend weeks learning an arcane code from the 1800s and
then spend hundreds of bucks building a station, or skip the
testing and spend $200 or so on a computer.


More like $200 on a *modem*...

Those early computers required that you learn all sorts of arcane
'codes' to make them work. A typo could cause all kinds of havoc, too.

And the models changed relatively quickly so that what you learned on
one system was usually not very useful on a newer one. The time spent
to learn Morse Code is/was trivial compared to the time needed to get
familiar with a new system.

I went from an XT DOS machine to a 286 with Geoworks to a 386 with
Windows 3.1 to a 486 with Win95 to a series of Pentiums with Win98 and
98SE/WinNT (dual boot) to my current "Winders XP (West Virginia variant)
machines.

I built ham stations for a less than $100 in those days.


Here are some pictures of a receiver (part of the Southgate Type 4) I
built in the early 1970s for about $10.

http://www.qsl.net/k5bcq/Jim/SilverRX1.jpg

Sweet!

http://www.qsl.net/k5bcq/Jim/SilverRX2.jpg

I like the audio filtering...

http://www.qsl.net/k5bcq/Jim/SilverRX3.jpg

Izzat a bowl for the tuning dial?

http://www.qsl.net/k5bcq/Jim/SilverRX4.jpg

http://www.qsl.net/k5bcq/Jim/SilverRX6.jpg

Almost all the parts came from old TVs, radios, and surplus military
gear. I had access to a machine shop so I cut and bent the chassis,
brackets and panels from some sheet aluminum scraps, and machined some
of the shaft extenders and adapters from brass rod.

Do you still have it?

The reason for the terminal strip and bunch of resistors on near the
rear edge of the rx was to permit the use of tubes with odd heater
voltages by changing jumpers.

Quite clever. I have a homebrew amp in an ARC-5 cabinet which ran four
6JB6's. A load of 17JB6's became available at a couple of bucks each a
few years back. I stocked up on them and changed the filament
transformer to an 18v job.

Some may scoff at the parts and methods used, but the fact is that the
rx worked very well for its intended purpose. It was stable, selective,
easy and fun to use and I had many many QSOs with it and its matching
converter, transmitter and transmatch.

I don't know why anyone but Leonard H. Anderson would scoff at the parts
or the methods.


You might want
to see how little a $200 computer would actually do. And you needed a
TV set or monitor to use it.


Seems to me that the biggest thing they could be used for is learning
Basic programming. Okay.


I think you mean BASIC programming. And who uses BASIC today? Heck,
most people with computers don't write software, they simply use
applications written by others.

Sure. Most folks want the computer to do something. They aren't
necessarily interested in computing for computing itself as a hobby.


Thousands voted with their feet,
and the best of a generation or two or three said to hell with radio
and went into computers instead.

"The best of a generation" went into computers? Hardly.

I missed that one.


I guess someone who decided to become a doctor or nurse rather than go
into computers wasn't 'the best' of their generation, huh?

Didn't any of "the best" become teachers or ministers or heads of water
companies?

Now, 25 years later, hams lament the declining number of
licensees as
posted by N2EY every other week. It occurs to few that the guys who
might have become hams 25-30 years ago if it weren't for the
code test
are now holding down good paying jobs in the computer industry and
probably wouldn't be interested in a ham ticket now if you
handed them one gratis.


The fact is that most people 25-30 years ago wouldn't have been
interested in a ham ticket back then either, with or without code test.


Apples and oranges.


Who is lamenting anyhow? I wish those new old Hams would have stuck
around, but beyond that, big deal.


What I take from the statistics is that an early generation of Hams got
their licenses without a whole lot of actual interest in radio. These
were the "honeydo" hams, who used 2 meter repeaters to get a shopping
list or the like on the way home from work. Their interests lay along
those lines.


Nothing wrong with that, either. But it is radio as a means to an end,
not an end in itself.


Well along came cell phones, and the honeydo'ers went to that. Cell
phones are a better technology for getting a shopping list than using a
repeater.


Some "honeydo" hams found themselves interested in radio beyond the
honeydo aspect. Others didn't.


Another subset of the dropoff is Hams who were somewhat interested in
radio, but became bored. They dropped off too.


Then there's the big ones: Antennas, the sunspot cycle, equipment
costs, and lifestyles.


My prediction of what will happen after Element 1 is history is that
there will be more new hams, and a higher attrition rate. People with
only a passing interest will become Hams. There is not likely to be a
net gain. I won't pass judgment on this being good or bad. It is just
different.


Let's look at history, shall we? Say from the end of WW2 to the present
time...

After WW2, there were about 60,000 US hams - a tiny fraction of what we
have today, even accounting for the lower population then.

In the postwar years the number of hams grew rapidly, in part because
some servicemen had learned radio theory and Morse Code in the
military, in part because of increased affluence, improved technology,
and pent-up demand. Lots of other reasons, too. By 1950 there were
almost 100,000 US hams.

Then in 1951 there came a restructuring that created new license
classes and renamed the old ones. Supposedly the restructuring would
have made it much harder to get a full-priviliges ham license, but in
late 1962 the FCC gave all ham operating priviliges to Generals and
above. The growth of US ham radio continued until about 1964 at a rate
that pushed license totals up to about a quarter million.

Are you sure about that 1962 date? General class licensees had all HF
frequencies when I first became interested in amateur radio in 1961.

Some see that era as a golden age for the ARS, and in some ways it was.
But it must be recalled how big, heavy and expensive new ham equipment
was in those times, the constant problem of TVI, etc.

I had a solution for the expensive equipment problem: I never had new
equipment until the 1980's.

But about 1964 the growth just stopped. The number of US hams hovered
around a quarter million for several years in the 1960s, despite the
booming population and general affluence.

Then in 1968 and 1969 came "incentive licensing", which made it
*harder* to get a full-privileges license. Inflation made equipment
more expensive and times got tough with the stagflation of the 1970s.
Yet from about 1970 onward the number of US hams grew and grew,
reaching 350,000 by 1979, and 550,000 by the mid 1980s.
*Before* there were code waivers, and when all US ham licenses required
a code test!

Imagine that. Do you mean that folks just hit the books, brushed up on
their code speed and tested for the higher class licenses?

The numbers continued to increase in the 1990s. But even though the
code and written testing requirements of the '90s were far less than
what was required in the 1970s and 1980s, the growth slowed down.

....and I note that the NVEC is coming out with new question pools with
far fewer questions. I wonder why *that* is.

Dave K8MN

Dave Heil wrote:
wrote:
Michael Coslo wrote:
wrote:
John Kasupski wrote:

There are some bargains out there. I routinely see 1.2 or 1.4 gb machines with monitors and keyboards for $100-175.

That's driven mostly by "offshore" manufacturing, which used to mean
Mexico or Japan but now usually means China.

Assuming that for some
reason people make a conscious choice between Ham
radio and computers
(and apparently between a hobby and a vocation)
doesn't make sense to
me. If they had more in common, maybe, but
computers as a hobby tends to
involve surfing the net these days, and as
a vocation it means either
working with programs or programming. The
two don't meet except at the
edges.

I think the point is that computers somehow
stole the spotlight from
ham radio. Perhaps that's true - but would
eliminating the code test
have done anything to prevent it?

Not really. If you are interested in becoming a ham,
you find a way to
become a ham. Most hams I know are computer users as well.
The two are not mutually exclusive.

Exactly.

First off, the field of "computing" covers a lot of ground,
of which
communcations/networking is only one part. There's
also word and
document processing, accounting (in many forms),
graphics and image
applications (again in many forms), games,
training/educational
applications (like learning Morse Code...), and much more
that can be
done on a stand-alone PC. Plus all the associated hardware.

Look at the things a ham might do with a computer.
I use mine for
Packet Cluster DX spots, routine logging, contest logging,
awards
tracking, propagation forcasting, RTTY/AMTOR/Pactor operation,
satellite
tracking, antenna modeling, electronic calculations and more.

Equipment and parts inventory, circuit simulation, drafting (the dial
scale of the Southgate Type 7 was drawn in CAD and printed on Mylar
with an inkjet printer). Also retrieval and storage of all kinds of
info (most of the HB-3 tube manual set is online, downloadable by
type).

Ham radio is communications, remote control, associated
hardware, and not much else, really.

Technically-inclined young people have *always* had lots of
alternatives. Look up "Williamson amplifier" and see how
many "hi-fi"
folks were building their own audio systems in the 1940s and later.
Lots of other examples.

Maybe people who are interested in radio would go into a radio type
hobby, and people who are interested in other things would be doing
other things. Simple sort of concept.


Yup.

Or of course we could assume that the Morse code test was what kept
people from being hams, and then try to explain away why the first batch
of Hams who didn't have to take a code test are the group that comprises
the biggest part of the recent drop-off? Seems a strange conclusion.


Whole bunch of factors. For one thing, since FCC has been renewing all
Tech Pluses as Techs for more than 5-1/2 years, you can't assume that a
Tech isn't code-tested just from the license class.

In my youth the hottest thing for the techno-kids was - cars. Old cars,
new cars, fixing up junkers, customizing, improving performance, you
name it. For less than the cost of a new ham rig, a kid could buy an
old car, fix it up with simple tools and easy-to-get parts, and get it
on the road. Even kids without licenses or the wherewithal to have a
car would help friends work on their cars, both for the experience and
in the hope of rides once the car was running.

No form of radio could compete with wheels.


That sort of thing has become a niche activity. Part of the reason is
that cars are more complex and harder to work on. Another is that
increased affluence, decreased average family size and the perception
of a car as a necessity have made it more likely that parents will help
a kid get a car, rather than the kid being expected to do it all on
his/her own.

I think most kids are still interesting in adding chrome
doodads,
lights, fancy tires and very hefty stereo sets which will shake a quarter mile of asphalt.

Sure, but that's not the same thing as what I was talking about. Like
when I helped Dan Mullen pull the cracked head from his Nova, clean off
all the carbon and put on a rebuilt one. When we were both in high
school.

A Timex-Sinclair 1000 could be had for
around $50, an Atari or Commodore 8-bit computer could be had
for a
fraction of what ham rigs cost (since Heathkit and many other
kit
manufacturers vanished around this time period as well).

In 1977 I bought and built a Heath HW-2036 2 meter rig. Cost a bit over
$300. Still have it and it still works. Heath lasted a while longer
after 1977.

Anyone using Timex-Sinclairs for ham use?


I dunno, but the old 2036 still perks. Lots of older ham gear is still
perfectly usable today, where old computers are usually just
curiosities.

I had a 2036 but I had to keep a diddle stick handy for
touching up the
VCO periodically.

Never had that problem.

I later had the VF-7401, a bit better beast.

They were still selling HW-16s in 1977 IIRC.

Let's see...spend weeks learning an arcane code from the 1800s and
then spend hundreds of bucks building a station, or skip the
testing and spend $200 or so on a computer.


More like $200 on a *modem*...

Those early computers required that you learn all sorts of arcane
'codes' to make them work. A typo could cause all kinds of havoc, too.

And the models changed relatively quickly so that what you learned on
one system was usually not very useful on a newer one. The time spent
to learn Morse Code is/was trivial compared to the time needed to get
familiar with a new system.

I went from an XT DOS machine to a 286 with Geoworks to a 386
with
Windows 3.1 to a 486 with Win95 to a series of Pentiums with
Win98 and
98SE/WinNT (dual boot) to my current "Winders XP (West Virginia variant)
machines.

After the Vic-20, I had a used XT. Replaced it with a new Dell Win95
200 MHz Pentium II in 1997. Since then, my computers have
all been built from pieces salvaged from older machines discarded by
their original owners.

I built ham stations for a less than $100 in those days.

Here are some pictures of a receiver (part of the Southgate Type 4) I
built in the early 1970s for about $10.

http://www.qsl.net/k5bcq/Jim/SilverRX1.jpg

Sweet!

Remember that it was built more than 30 years ago by a teenager in his
basement...

http://www.qsl.net/k5bcq/Jim/SilverRX2.jpg

I like the audio filtering...

The 88 mh toroids were one of the few items bought new. Not easily
found in old TVs...

http://www.qsl.net/k5bcq/Jim/SilverRX3.jpg

Izzat a bowl for the tuning dial?

Yes. A plastic cereal bowl, to be exact. It's translucent, and the
pilot lights shine light through it.

http://www.qsl.net/k5bcq/Jim/SilverRX4.jpg

http://www.qsl.net/k5bcq/Jim/SilverRX6.jpg

The pictures are actually scans of old B&W photos.

Almost all the parts came from old TVs, radios, and surplus
military gear.

Swords into plowshares.

I had access to a machine shop so I cut and bent the chassis,
brackets and panels from some sheet aluminum scraps, and
machined some
of the shaft extenders and adapters from brass rod.

Do you still have it?

Not in one piece.

I used it for several years, then loaned it to a ham who had even less
$$ than I. Meanwhile I built an improved model and lost track of it.

The ham I gave it to used it for several years, then stored it in an
attic without covering it up. The roof of that house was redone and all
sorts of roof debris got all over it.

Finally it was discovered and I got back the remains a few years ago.
Tore it apart for the good stuff.

The reason for the terminal strip and bunch of resistors on
near the
rear edge of the rx was to permit the use of tubes with odd
heater voltages by changing jumpers.

Quite clever.

Thanks

I have a homebrew amp in an ARC-5 cabinet which ran four
6JB6's. A load of 17JB6's became available at a couple of
bucks each a
few years back. I stocked up on them and changed the filament
transformer to an 18v job.

Good idea. Another trick with old rigs is to replace 6146s with 6883s
or even 6159s, if you can find the higher-voltage tubes at low cost.
Some rigs, like the Heath transceivers, have 12 volt heater buses so
the change is easy.

Some may scoff at the parts and methods used, but the fact is that the
rx worked very well for its intended purpose. It was stable, selective,
easy and fun to use and I had many many QSOs with it and its matching
converter, transmitter and transmatch.

I don't know why anyone but Leonard H. Anderson would scoff at the parts or the methods.

You might want
to see how little a $200 computer would actually do. And you needed a
TV set or monitor to use it.

Seems to me that the biggest thing they could be used for is learning
Basic programming. Okay.


I think you mean BASIC programming. And who uses BASIC today? Heck,
most people with computers don't write software, they simply use
applications written by others.

Sure. Most folks want the computer to do something. They
aren't
necessarily interested in computing for computing itself as a
hobby.

Means to an end vs. an end in itself. And that's a key factor.

Thousands voted with their feet,
and the best of a generation or two or three said to hell with radio
and went into computers instead.

"The best of a generation" went into computers? Hardly.

I missed that one.

I guess someone who decided to become a doctor or nurse
rather than go
into computers wasn't 'the best' of their generation, huh?

Didn't any of "the best" become teachers or ministers or heads of water companies?

Sure, lots of examples. Including folks who went into the military,
government service, and other vocations like electrical engineering....

Now, 25 years later, hams lament the declining number of
licensees as
posted by N2EY every other week. It occurs to few that the guys who
might have become hams 25-30 years ago if it weren't for the
code test
are now holding down good paying jobs in the computer industry and
probably wouldn't be interested in a ham ticket now if you
handed them one gratis.


The fact is that most people 25-30 years ago wouldn't have been
interested in a ham ticket back then either, with or without code test.


Apples and oranges.


Who is lamenting anyhow? I wish those new old Hams would have stuck
around, but beyond that, big deal.


What I take from the statistics is that an early generation of Hams got
their licenses without a whole lot of actual interest in radio. These
were the "honeydo" hams, who used 2 meter repeaters to get a shopping
list or the like on the way home from work. Their interests lay along
those lines.


Nothing wrong with that, either. But it is radio as a means to an end,
not an end in itself.


Well along came cell phones, and the honeydo'ers went to that. Cell
phones are a better technology for getting a shopping list than using a
repeater.


Some "honeydo" hams found themselves interested in radio beyond the
honeydo aspect. Others didn't.


Another subset of the dropoff is Hams who were somewhat interested in
radio, but became bored. They dropped off too.


Then there's the big ones: Antennas, the sunspot cycle, equipment
costs, and lifestyles.


My prediction of what will happen after Element 1 is history is that
there will be more new hams, and a higher attrition rate. People with
only a passing interest will become Hams. There is not likely to be a
net gain. I won't pass judgment on this being good or bad. It is just
different.


Let's look at history, shall we? Say from the end of WW2 to the present
time...

After WW2, there were about 60,000 US hams - a tiny fraction of what we
have today, even accounting for the lower population then.

In the postwar years the number of hams grew rapidly, in part because
some servicemen had learned radio theory and Morse Code in the
military, in part because of increased affluence, improved technology,
and pent-up demand. Lots of other reasons, too. By 1950 there were
almost 100,000 US hams.

Then in 1951 there came a restructuring that created new license
classes and renamed the old ones. Supposedly the restructuring would
have made it much harder to get a full-priviliges ham license, but in
late 1962

TYPO:

Should be "1952".

The announcement was made in December of 1952 and became effective in
February 1953.

the FCC gave all ham operating priviliges to Generals and
above. The growth of US ham radio continued until about 1964 at a rate
that pushed license totals up to about a quarter million.

Are you sure about that 1962 date?

See above. Typo.

General class licensees had all HF
frequencies when I first became interested in amateur radio in 1961.

All frequencies and modes were authorized to all General, Conditional,
Advanced and Extra class hams by that Feb of 1953 change. Stayed that
way until November 22 1968.

Some see that era as a golden age for the ARS, and in some ways it was.
But it must be recalled how big, heavy and expensive new ham equipment
was in those times, the constant problem of TVI, etc.

I had a solution for the expensive equipment problem: I never had new
equipment until the 1980's.

My HW-2036 and K2 are they *only* ham rigs I ever bought brand-new.

But about 1964 the growth just stopped. The number of US hams hovered
around a quarter million for several years in the 1960s, despite the
booming population and general affluence.

Then in 1968 and 1969 came "incentive licensing", which made it
*harder* to get a full-privileges license. Inflation made equipment
more expensive and times got tough with the stagflation of the 1970s.
Yet from about 1970 onward the number of US hams grew and grew,
reaching 350,000 by 1979, and 550,000 by the mid 1980s.
*Before* there were code waivers, and when all US ham licenses required
a code test!

Imagine that. Do you mean that folks just hit the books,
brushed up on
their code speed and tested for the higher class licenses?

Not just that - a lot of *new* hams got licenses after the
requirements were *increased*.

It was predicted in some circles that the incentive licensing
changes would cause massive reductions in the number of hams,
but the exact opposite happened.

The numbers continued to increase in the 1990s. But even though the
code and written testing requirements of the '90s were far less than
what was required in the 1970s and 1980s, the growth slowed down.

...and I note that the NVEC is coming out with new question
pools with
far fewer questions. I wonder why *that* is.

Did you read their "Amateur Radio In The 21st Century" paper? Explains
it all.

They seem to miss the point that the kind of folks (particularly young
people) who would be most attracted to ham radio are those who want a
challenge.

73 de Jim, N2EY

From: Michael Coslo on Oct 19, 6:31 am

wrote:
John Kasupski wrote:

I can recall back in about 1975 or so, there was a proposal for
a no-code "Communicator Class" license. It was shot down, largely
due to opposition by ARRL.

By widespread opposition by the amateur radio community. And it wasn't
a stand-alone proposal - it was part of an FCC proposed restructuring
that would have resulted in a 7 class "two ladder" license system, less
than a decade after the "incentive licensing" changes.

1975 was also when cb was booming and FCC proposing to convert 220 to
"Class E" cb.

1975 is also THIRTY YEARS AGO. :-)

It was along about the same time that computers
first became reasonably affordable for home use.

You might want to check the dates, costs, and capabilities of what
you're calling a "computer", John.

A "computer" is an electronic apparatus that calculates according
to a predetermined sequence of operations stored in memory.

The first "low-cost computers" were exemplified by the
1969-debut of the Hewlett-Packard 9100 programmable desk
calculator. [not a single IC in that model, by the way]
Magnetic-card storage of programs (size of a credit card of
today). CRT display of alphanumeric register contents.
Very expensive by hobby standards (unaffordable by most) but
it set a pattern. The general format/design has been carried
through to the current HP 33S ($55 through HP mail-order)
handheld programmable scientific calculator.

A generation of
technically inclined young people suddenly had an alternative
to ham radio and its code testing.

Sorry, that doesn't make sense.

Makes PERFECT SENSE to those involved, from buyers to sellers
and the growth of the personal computer industry. Made Bill
Gates the richest man in the USA... :-)

Those early small computers weren't much in the way of communication
devices. Look up what a 300 baud modem for a TRS-80 cost...

Not a problem to most, really. I started up a second time with
a new Apple ][+ in computer-modem communications in early
December, 1984, got on local BBSs and had a ball from then on.

Thirty years ago, 300 BPS was considered "fast" (in comparison
to the "standard" rate of 100 BPS). It took a few years of
modem development to reach 2400 BPS (decried as "impossible" on
voice-grade telephone lines by so-called "experts" in comms).
Took a few more years and some heavy research into Coding
and Information theory to hit the now-top-rate of 56 KBPS.
Meanwhile the Co$t of that developement had to be paid by
somebody and that somebody was the consumer, the buyer.

Thirty years ago, the offshore production of consumer electronics
was just starting to make an impact on the market for such things
and had not gotten into the small personal computer area. Much
of the hardware for that area was still built domestically then.
The reverse is true now.

I think its called technical time shifting, Jim. Somehow all those
early computers were imbued with all the features that the new ones
have. That Timex computer can do everything my G5 can do apparently! 8^)

Timex-Sinclair was a LATE-comer into the personal computer market.
The first established generation of personal computers were the
Intel 8080 MCPU systems running CP/M (the first popular DOS). The
Motorola 6800 MCPU and then the MOS Technology 6502 MCPU (as used
in the first kit Apple, the Apple I, then the Commodore C64 ready-
built) began to change that. The Apple ][ series had almost
seized the whole personal computer market of 1980 until IBM struck
in 1981 and then Apple screwed up on new series designs, beginning
with the Apple III. CP/M systems had gone down the tubes by then.

The whole argument does this sort of thing. Assuming that for some
reason people make a conscious choice between Ham radio and computers
(and apparently between a hobby and a vocation) doesn't make sense to
me. If they had more in common, maybe, but computers as a hobby tends to
involve surfing the net these days, and as a vocation it means either
working with programs or programming. The two don't meet except at the
edges.

That's only from YOUR personal experience. Prior to 1991 and the
Internet going public-access, there was NO "net surfing"...no
Internet to surf. BBSs were well established and growing by 1990
with tens of thousands (perhaps hundreds of thousands) actively
communicating on BBSs and BBS netwroks. Nearly everything in
TEXT form and imagery largely confined to still pictures and games
of rather crude (by today's standards) imagery/art. Games were a
very popular market item. Real computer afficionados were into
programming, by BASIC, by Assembler, by Pascal, the few with the
first hard disks using compilers for compiled-source programs.

Technically-inclined young people have *always* had lots of
alternatives. Look up "Williamson amplifier" and see how many "hi-fi"
folks were building their own audio systems in the 1940s and later.
Lots of other examples.

Change "1940s" for 'late 1950s' for that "Williamson." :-)
Having been in that area as a hobbyist and once a suscriber to
Audio Engineering magazine in the 1950s, "hi-fi" was about the
ONLY area (other than ham radio) for hobbyists of the 50s.
The industry development of good, affordable ICs was only just
beginning with the one-package microprocessor about to change
that radically.

Maybe people who are interested in radio would go into a radio type
hobby, and people who are interested in other things would be doing
other things. Simple sort of concept.

If you re-write "radio type" into "electronic type" you would get
a different picture of the three decades from 1975 to now.

Or of course we could assume that the Morse code test was what kept
people from being hams, and then try to explain away why the first batch
of Hams who didn't have to take a code test are the group that comprises
the biggest part of the recent drop-off? Seems a strange conclusion.

"Recent" drop-off? :-) The number of U.S. licensed amateurs has
been steadily shrinking for two years. Not much of a shrinkage
but nowhere close to keeping up with the population increase.

Despite the snarling denial of amateur morsemen, the no-code-test
Technician class license added about 200 thousand new licensees
to the U.S. amateur radio database since it began. Without them
there would have been NO peak of numbers in July, 2003, and the
total numbers would have SHRUNK before the new millennium was
entered. Never mind the "lumping of no-coders with code-tested
techs" happening after Restructuring, the tabulations elsewhere
show that the 200K additions by NO-CODERS actually happened BEFORE
Restructuring.

In my youth the hottest thing for the techno-kids was - cars. Old cars,
new cars, fixing up junkers, customizing, improving performance, you
name it. For less than the cost of a new ham rig, a kid could buy an
old car, fix it up with simple tools and easy-to-get parts, and get it
on the road. Even kids without licenses or the wherewithal to have a
car would help friends work on their cars, both for the experience and
in the hope of rides once the car was running.

No form of radio could compete with wheels.

That "youth" is rather long gone...but southern California is
still the doityourself/custom car place showing how it is done,
today. :-) A good (enough) car was a "scarf magnet" for
young male teeners deep into testosterone flow.


A Timex-Sinclair 1000 could be had for
around $50, an Atari or Commodore 8-bit computer could be had for a
fraction of what ham rigs cost (since Heathkit and many other kit
manufacturers vanished around this time period as well).

[a regretable time shift there...were NO Sinclair models in 1975]

In 1977 I bought and built a Heath HW-2036 2 meter rig. Cost a bit over
$300. Still have it and it still works. Heath lasted a while longer
after 1977.

Heath is still around. They make a nice wireless doorbell (we
have two transmitters and three receivers), ready-built. That's
about IT. :-)

Anyone using Timex-Sinclairs for ham use?

I doubt it. CQ magazine used to feature all kinds of adaptations
of the Commodore C64 series.

Let's see...spend weeks learning an arcane code from the 1800s
and then spend hundreds of bucks building a station, or skip the testing
and spend $200 or so on a computer.

I built ham stations for a less than $100 in those days. You might want
to see how little a $200 computer would actually do. And you needed a
TV set or monitor to use it.

In 1980 it should not have been a problem to obtain an old TV
set (even black and white) to use as a display (what you call a
"monitor"). :-) Without tearing it apart to make an 80m CW
rig rock-bound on 3.579545454 MHz, it could still pick up NTSC
TV 25 years ago (nobody had any serious plans for "digital TV"
back then).

Seems to me that the biggest thing they could be used for is learning
Basic programming. Okay.

That isn't valuable at all? Tsk, tsk. :-)

Thousands voted with their feet,
and the best of a generation or two or three said to hell with
radio and went into computers instead.

"The best of a generation" went into computers? Hardly.

I missed that one.

They didn't go into choo-choos. :-)

Now, 25 years later, hams lament the declining number of licensees as
posted by N2EY every other week. It occurs to few that the guys
who might have become hams 25-30 years ago if it weren't for the code test
are now holding down good paying jobs in the computer industry
and probably wouldn't be interested in a ham ticket now if you
handed them one gratis.

Apples and oranges.

"Apples and oranges?" Sounds like more sour whine from morsemen.

Agribusiness did not grow through morsemanship...:-)

Who is lamenting anyhow? I wish those new old Hams would have stuck
around, but beyond that, big deal.

Mostly those hams just let their ham licenses expire. How about
that? :-)

What I take from the statistics is that an early generation of Hams got
their licenses without a whole lot of actual interest in radio. These
were the "honeydo" hams, who used 2 meter repeaters to get a shopping
list or the like on the way home from work. Their interests lay along
those lines.

??? Is "radio" only that region called "HF" in the EM spectrum?

There is "NO technical interest" in the frequencies above 30 MHz?

Tsk, tsk, tsk...

Well along came cell phones, and the honeydo'ers went to that. Cell
phones are a better technology for getting a shopping list than using a
repeater.

That can't be! Cell phones are absolutely useless as comm devices
according to all the morsemen...the Jay Leno show "proved that"...
in every single emergency situation, cell phones are "useless." :-)


Another subset of the dropoff is Hams who were somewhat interested in
radio, but became bored. They dropped off too.

I'm getting a bit bored by all this blather myself... :-)

My prediction of what will happen after Element 1 is history is that
there will be more new hams, and a higher attrition rate. People with
only a passing interest will become Hams. There is not likely to be a
net gain. I won't pass judgment on this being good or bad. It is just
different.

Tsk, from the output in here, much more judgement has been passed
than has gas. [or, they are one and the same...]

As of 17 Oct 05, 48.57% of all individual U.S. amateur radio
licensees were Technicians...MOST of them not having taken any
code tests. Guess they don't count, huh? :-)

So far on WT Docket 05-235, the number of filings in only three
months averages 866 per month. On WT Docket 98-143 (Restructuring)
they averaged less than 205 per month over an 11-month period.
Guess the morse code test is "unimportant" and, since PCs are
"only used for surfing the net," it doesn't have any impact on
input to the FCC, right? :-)