Radio's Perfect Storm - Part I

4. Radio's new competitors jockey for position

Let's pretend the industry gets its wish and HD radio takes off.

So now every station becomes three stations. And all three of those
stations are rated. So now we have 100 stations "above the line"
competing for the same audience that 30 stations used to compete for.
Now we're not worrying about 4.0 shares, we're too busy hoping for a
1.0.

And what is the value of being top 5 ranked when there are a hundred
stations in the ranker? Answer: None.

What are the odds that the top-ranked station in an HD world will have
a half dozen HD-2 stations thrown its way by competitors desperate to
steal some of that thunder? I would estimate those odds at 100% - at
least.

Let's now pretend HD doesn't take off. How much time and effort and
expense is being invested in chasing HD as the primary driver of
radio's future? What is the opportunity cost of this obsession? That
is, what else could we have done with that money, that time, that hard-
headed focus on our future? How diversified is your group's portfolio
of futuristic ideas, hmm?

Finally, consider this: The ratings deck is stacked to favor the
original players. The 100-share Arbitron world is a world which
generally excludes non-commercial stations (unless you look hard) and
Internet stations and Satellite Radio (don't let Arbitron's poor
attempt at satellite radio ratings fool you), not to mention video
games and Internet video and all the other fabulous distractions for
our eyes and ears which are carving out their own slice of the
advertiser's pie today.

Your station isn't competing just against all other stations. It's
competing against all other entertainment distractions, some of which
are likewise ad-supported. That makes them substitutes for you - your
direct competitors.

Radio's 100-share pie is getting smaller, relatively speaking.

http://www.hear2.com/2007/11/radios-perfect-.html

HD Radio is screwed!

On Nov 22, 1:24 pm, IBOCcrock wrote:
Radio's Perfect Storm - Part I

4. Radio's new competitors jockey for position

Let's pretend the industry gets its wish and HD radio takes off.

So now every station becomes three stations. And all three of those
stations are rated. So now we have 100 stations "above the line"
competing for the same audience that 30 stations used to compete for.
Now we're not worrying about 4.0 shares, we're too busy hoping for a
1.0.

And what is the value of being top 5 ranked when there are a hundred
stations in the ranker? Answer: None.

What are the odds that the top-ranked station in an HD world will have
a half dozen HD-2 stations thrown its way by competitors desperate to
steal some of that thunder? I would estimate those odds at 100% - at
least.

Let's now pretend HD doesn't take off. How much time and effort and
expense is being invested in chasing HD as the primary driver of
radio's future? What is the opportunity cost of this obsession? That
is, what else could we have done with that money, that time, that hard-
headed focus on our future? How diversified is your group's portfolio
of futuristic ideas, hmm?

Finally, consider this: The ratings deck is stacked to favor the
original players. The 100-share Arbitron world is a world which
generally excludes non-commercial stations (unless you look hard) and
Internet stations and Satellite Radio (don't let Arbitron's poor
attempt at satellite radio ratings fool you), not to mention video
games and Internet video and all the other fabulous distractions for
our eyes and ears which are carving out their own slice of the
advertiser's pie today.

Your station isn't competing just against all other stations. It's
competing against all other entertainment distractions, some of which
are likewise ad-supported. That makes them substitutes for you - your
direct competitors.

Radio's 100-share pie is getting smaller, relatively speaking.

http://www.hear2.com/2007/11/radios-perfect-.html

HD Radio is screwed!

Interesting. He also seems to indicate that radio formats are going
to have to go after a broader audience - so that the younger set -
those who are used to many different forms of entertainment - will
listen at the same time the older set -- those who are used to
listening to terrestrial radio -- will listen at the same time. That
would seem to say that then the ad execs had better be pushing
products that reach the younger set as well as the older set. And
that starts a whole interesting process of how do you fit in all the
commercials without loosing one group or the other. How do you plan
promotions to reach both groups. You would almost have to have a
double identity to pull this off. Wow. That ought to be
interesting.

On Nov 22, 7:34 pm, "
wrote:
On Nov 22, 1:24 pm, IBOCcrock wrote:





Radio's Perfect Storm - Part I

4. Radio's new competitors jockey for position

Let's pretend the industry gets its wish and HD radio takes off.

So now every station becomes three stations. And all three of those
stations are rated. So now we have 100 stations "above the line"
competing for the same audience that 30 stations used to compete for.
Now we're not worrying about 4.0 shares, we're too busy hoping for a
1.0.

And what is the value of being top 5 ranked when there are a hundred
stations in the ranker? Answer: None.

What are the odds that the top-ranked station in an HD world will have
a half dozen HD-2 stations thrown its way by competitors desperate to
steal some of that thunder? I would estimate those odds at 100% - at
least.

Let's now pretend HD doesn't take off. How much time and effort and
expense is being invested in chasing HD as the primary driver of
radio's future? What is the opportunity cost of this obsession? That
is, what else could we have done with that money, that time, that hard-
headed focus on our future? How diversified is your group's portfolio
of futuristic ideas, hmm?

Finally, consider this: The ratings deck is stacked to favor the
original players. The 100-share Arbitron world is a world which
generally excludes non-commercial stations (unless you look hard) and
Internet stations and Satellite Radio (don't let Arbitron's poor
attempt at satellite radio ratings fool you), not to mention video
games and Internet video and all the other fabulous distractions for
our eyes and ears which are carving out their own slice of the
advertiser's pie today.

Your station isn't competing just against all other stations. It's
competing against all other entertainment distractions, some of which
are likewise ad-supported. That makes them substitutes for you - your
direct competitors.

Radio's 100-share pie is getting smaller, relatively speaking.

http://www.hear2.com/2007/11/radios-perfect-.html

HD Radio is screwed!

Interesting. He also seems to indicate that radio formats are going
to have to go after a broader audience - so that the younger set -
those who are used to many different forms of entertainment - will
listen at the same time the older set -- those who are used to
listening to terrestrial radio -- will listen at the same time. That
would seem to say that then the ad execs had better be pushing
products that reach the younger set as well as the older set. And
that starts a whole interesting process of how do you fit in all the
commercials without loosing one group or the other. How do you plan
promotions to reach both groups. You would almost have to have a
double identity to pull this off. Wow. That ought to be
interesting.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Music Free Radio with 91.7% Commercials

3-Minutes Segments for a Target Demographic
* Minutes 00~03 : One Minute World & National News
and Target Ads for Age 56 Plus
* Minutes 04~06 : One Minute Weather
and Target Ads for Age 41~55
* Minutes 07~09 : One Minute Local News & Events
and Target Ads for Age 19~25
* Minutes 10~12 : One Minute Sports
and Target Ads for Age 26~40
Minutes 13~15 : One Minute Pop Culture
and Target Ads for Age 12~18

Repeat the Cycle Every 15 Minutes

Updated Hourly

Five (5) Minutes of 'Content' and 55 Minutes of Commercials.

i am a good consumer of radio ~ RHF