http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12493980



Solar flare eruptions set to reach Earth
By Paul Rincon Science reporter, BBC News



Scientists around the world will be watching closely as three eruptions
from the Sun reach the Earth over Thursday and Friday.

These "coronal mass ejections" will slam into the Earth's magnetic shield.

The waves of charged solar particles are the result of three solar
flares directed at Earth in recent days, including the most powerful
since 2006.

The biggest flares can disrupt technology, including power grids,
communications systems and satellites.

The northern lights (Aurora Borealis) may also be visible further south
than is normally the case - including from northern parts of the UK.

"Our current view is that the effect of the solar flare is likely to
reach Earth later today (Thursday GMT), possibly tomorrow morning," said
Alan Thomson, head of geomagnetism at the British Geological Survey (BGS).

He told BBC News: "In the scientific community, there's a feeling that
it's not as intense as we first thought it might be. But it's possible
still that it could be a large enough event for us to see the northern
lights in the UK."

However, weather forecasts suggested cloudy conditions could mar views
of any aurorae.
Technological impact

The US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) said
that three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were en route as the result of
solar flares on the 13, 14 and 15 February (GMT).

"The last of the three seems to be the fastest and may catch both of the
forerunners about mid-to-late day tomorrow, February 17," read a
statement from Noaa's Space Weather Prediction Center.
Aurorae The northern lights could be seen further south than is normal

The flare recorded at 0156 GMT on 15 February was the strongest such
event in four years, according to the US space agency (Nasa), which has
been monitoring activity on the Sun. The event was classified as a
so-called X-flare, the most intense type.

The source of all three events, sunspot 1158, has expanded rapidly in
recent days.

Solar flares are caused by the sudden release of magnetic energy stored
in the Sun's atmosphere.

Their effects can interfere with modern technology on Earth, such as
electrical power grids, communications systems and satellites -
including satellite navigation (or sat-nav) signals.

Although scientists are expecting most geomagnetic activity to occur on
Thursday, Chinese state media has already reported some disruption to
shortwave radio communications in the south of the country.
Awakening Sun

In 1972, a geomagnetic storm provoked by a solar flare knocked out
long-distance telephone communication across the US state of Illinois.
And in 1989, another storm plunged six million people into darkness
across the Canadian province of Quebec.

Dr Thomson said it was possible infrastructure could be affected this
time, but stressed: "The X-flare that was observed the other day was
lower in magnitude than similar flares that have been associated with
technological damage such as the loss of the Quebec power grid... and
even the large magnetic storm in 2003, which caused some damage to
satellites in orbit."

Scientists will have around half an hour's notice that the wave of
charged particles is about to hit the Earth's magnetic shield.

This is taken from the point at which a Nasa satellite called Ace (the
Advanced Composition Explorer) registers the solar radiation on its
instruments: "We're sitting waiting for that event to happen," said Dr
Thomson.

On Feb 17, 5:35*am, dave wrote:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12493980

Solar flare eruptions set to reach Earth
By Paul Rincon Science reporter, BBC News

Scientists around the world will be watching closely as three eruptions
from the Sun reach the Earth over Thursday and Friday.

These "coronal mass ejections" will slam into the Earth's magnetic shield..

The waves of charged solar particles are the result of three solar
flares directed at Earth in recent days, including the most powerful
since 2006.

The biggest flares can disrupt technology, including power grids,
communications systems and satellites.

The northern lights (Aurora Borealis) may also be visible further south
than is normally the case - including from northern parts of the UK.

"Our current view is that the effect of the solar flare is likely to
reach Earth later today (Thursday GMT), possibly tomorrow morning," said
Alan Thomson, head of geomagnetism at the British Geological Survey (BGS)..

He told BBC News: "In the scientific community, there's a feeling that
it's not as intense as we first thought it might be. But it's possible
still that it could be a large enough event for us to see the northern
lights in the UK."

However, weather forecasts suggested cloudy conditions could mar views
of any aurorae.
Technological impact

The US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) said
that three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were en route as the result of
solar flares on the 13, 14 and 15 February (GMT).

"The last of the three seems to be the fastest and may catch both of the
forerunners about mid-to-late day tomorrow, February 17," read a
statement from Noaa's Space Weather Prediction Center.
Aurorae The northern lights could be seen further south than is normal

The flare recorded at 0156 GMT on 15 February was the strongest such
event in four years, according to the US space agency (Nasa), which has
been monitoring activity on the Sun. The event was classified as a
so-called X-flare, the most intense type.

The source of all three events, sunspot 1158, has expanded rapidly in
recent days.

Solar flares are caused by the sudden release of magnetic energy stored
in the Sun's atmosphere.

Their effects can interfere with modern technology on Earth, such as
electrical power grids, communications systems and satellites -
including satellite navigation (or sat-nav) signals.

Although scientists are expecting most geomagnetic activity to occur on
Thursday, Chinese state media has already reported some disruption to
shortwave radio communications in the south of the country.
Awakening Sun

In 1972, a geomagnetic storm provoked by a solar flare knocked out
long-distance telephone communication across the US state of Illinois.
And in 1989, another storm plunged six million people into darkness
across the Canadian province of Quebec.

Dr Thomson said it was possible infrastructure could be affected this
time, but stressed: "The X-flare that was observed the other day was
lower in magnitude than similar flares that have been associated with
technological damage such as the loss of the Quebec power grid... and
even the large magnetic storm in 2003, which caused some damage to
satellites in orbit."

Scientists will have around half an hour's notice that the wave of
charged particles is about to hit the Earth's magnetic shield.

This is taken from the point at which a Nasa satellite called Ace (the
Advanced Composition Explorer) registers the solar radiation on its
instruments: "We're sitting waiting for that event to happen," said Dr
Thomson.

Well, that ought to provide some interesting blackout-hotspot patterns
the next few days.

On Feb 17, 10:54*am, bpnjensen wrote:
On Feb 17, 5:35*am, dave wrote:





http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12493980

Solar flare eruptions set to reach Earth
By Paul Rincon Science reporter, BBC News

Scientists around the world will be watching closely as three eruptions
from the Sun reach the Earth over Thursday and Friday.

These "coronal mass ejections" will slam into the Earth's magnetic shield.

The waves of charged solar particles are the result of three solar
flares directed at Earth in recent days, including the most powerful
since 2006.

The biggest flares can disrupt technology, including power grids,
communications systems and satellites.

The northern lights (Aurora Borealis) may also be visible further south
than is normally the case - including from northern parts of the UK.

"Our current view is that the effect of the solar flare is likely to
reach Earth later today (Thursday GMT), possibly tomorrow morning," said
Alan Thomson, head of geomagnetism at the British Geological Survey (BGS).

He told BBC News: "In the scientific community, there's a feeling that
it's not as intense as we first thought it might be. But it's possible
still that it could be a large enough event for us to see the northern
lights in the UK."

However, weather forecasts suggested cloudy conditions could mar views
of any aurorae.
Technological impact

The US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) said
that three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were en route as the result of
solar flares on the 13, 14 and 15 February (GMT).

"The last of the three seems to be the fastest and may catch both of the
forerunners about mid-to-late day tomorrow, February 17," read a
statement from Noaa's Space Weather Prediction Center.
Aurorae The northern lights could be seen further south than is normal

The flare recorded at 0156 GMT on 15 February was the strongest such
event in four years, according to the US space agency (Nasa), which has
been monitoring activity on the Sun. The event was classified as a
so-called X-flare, the most intense type.

The source of all three events, sunspot 1158, has expanded rapidly in
recent days.

Solar flares are caused by the sudden release of magnetic energy stored
in the Sun's atmosphere.

Their effects can interfere with modern technology on Earth, such as
electrical power grids, communications systems and satellites -
including satellite navigation (or sat-nav) signals.

Although scientists are expecting most geomagnetic activity to occur on
Thursday, Chinese state media has already reported some disruption to
shortwave radio communications in the south of the country.
Awakening Sun

In 1972, a geomagnetic storm provoked by a solar flare knocked out
long-distance telephone communication across the US state of Illinois.
And in 1989, another storm plunged six million people into darkness
across the Canadian province of Quebec.

Dr Thomson said it was possible infrastructure could be affected this
time, but stressed: "The X-flare that was observed the other day was
lower in magnitude than similar flares that have been associated with
technological damage such as the loss of the Quebec power grid... and
even the large magnetic storm in 2003, which caused some damage to
satellites in orbit."

Scientists will have around half an hour's notice that the wave of
charged particles is about to hit the Earth's magnetic shield.

This is taken from the point at which a Nasa satellite called Ace (the
Advanced Composition Explorer) registers the solar radiation on its
instruments: "We're sitting waiting for that event to happen," said Dr
Thomson.

Well, that ought to provide some interesting blackout-hotspot patterns
the next few days.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I would disconnect the longwires for today . Just in case ...

On Feb 17, 11:49*am, wrote:
On Feb 17, 10:54*am, bpnjensen wrote:





On Feb 17, 5:35*am, dave wrote:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12493980

Solar flare eruptions set to reach Earth
By Paul Rincon Science reporter, BBC News

Scientists around the world will be watching closely as three eruptions
from the Sun reach the Earth over Thursday and Friday.

These "coronal mass ejections" will slam into the Earth's magnetic shield.

The waves of charged solar particles are the result of three solar
flares directed at Earth in recent days, including the most powerful
since 2006.

The biggest flares can disrupt technology, including power grids,
communications systems and satellites.

The northern lights (Aurora Borealis) may also be visible further south
than is normally the case - including from northern parts of the UK.

"Our current view is that the effect of the solar flare is likely to
reach Earth later today (Thursday GMT), possibly tomorrow morning," said
Alan Thomson, head of geomagnetism at the British Geological Survey (BGS).

He told BBC News: "In the scientific community, there's a feeling that
it's not as intense as we first thought it might be. But it's possible
still that it could be a large enough event for us to see the northern
lights in the UK."

However, weather forecasts suggested cloudy conditions could mar views
of any aurorae.
Technological impact

The US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) said
that three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were en route as the result of
solar flares on the 13, 14 and 15 February (GMT).

"The last of the three seems to be the fastest and may catch both of the
forerunners about mid-to-late day tomorrow, February 17," read a
statement from Noaa's Space Weather Prediction Center.
Aurorae The northern lights could be seen further south than is normal

The flare recorded at 0156 GMT on 15 February was the strongest such
event in four years, according to the US space agency (Nasa), which has
been monitoring activity on the Sun. The event was classified as a
so-called X-flare, the most intense type.

The source of all three events, sunspot 1158, has expanded rapidly in
recent days.

Solar flares are caused by the sudden release of magnetic energy stored
in the Sun's atmosphere.

Their effects can interfere with modern technology on Earth, such as
electrical power grids, communications systems and satellites -
including satellite navigation (or sat-nav) signals.

Although scientists are expecting most geomagnetic activity to occur on
Thursday, Chinese state media has already reported some disruption to
shortwave radio communications in the south of the country.
Awakening Sun

In 1972, a geomagnetic storm provoked by a solar flare knocked out
long-distance telephone communication across the US state of Illinois..
And in 1989, another storm plunged six million people into darkness
across the Canadian province of Quebec.

Dr Thomson said it was possible infrastructure could be affected this
time, but stressed: "The X-flare that was observed the other day was
lower in magnitude than similar flares that have been associated with
technological damage such as the loss of the Quebec power grid... and
even the large magnetic storm in 2003, which caused some damage to
satellites in orbit."

Scientists will have around half an hour's notice that the wave of
charged particles is about to hit the Earth's magnetic shield.

This is taken from the point at which a Nasa satellite called Ace (the
Advanced Composition Explorer) registers the solar radiation on its
instruments: "We're sitting waiting for that event to happen," said Dr
Thomson.

Well, that ought to provide some interesting blackout-hotspot patterns
the next few days.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I would disconnect the longwires for today . Just in case ...- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt
Issued: 2011 Feb 17 1805 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
#
# Geophysical Alert Message
#
Solar-terrestrial indices for 16 February follow.
Solar flux 114 and mid-latitude A-index 2.
The mid-latitude K-index at 1800 UTC on 17 February was 1 (9 nT).

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

This does not look like a perceptive prediction to me. Are they
missing something, or am I?

On Feb 17, 11:53*am, bpnjensen wrote:
On Feb 17, 11:49*am, wrote:





On Feb 17, 10:54*am, bpnjensen wrote:

On Feb 17, 5:35*am, dave wrote:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12493980

Solar flare eruptions set to reach Earth
By Paul Rincon Science reporter, BBC News

Scientists around the world will be watching closely as three eruptions
from the Sun reach the Earth over Thursday and Friday.

These "coronal mass ejections" will slam into the Earth's magnetic shield.

The waves of charged solar particles are the result of three solar
flares directed at Earth in recent days, including the most powerful
since 2006.

The biggest flares can disrupt technology, including power grids,
communications systems and satellites.

The northern lights (Aurora Borealis) may also be visible further south
than is normally the case - including from northern parts of the UK..

"Our current view is that the effect of the solar flare is likely to
reach Earth later today (Thursday GMT), possibly tomorrow morning," said
Alan Thomson, head of geomagnetism at the British Geological Survey (BGS).

He told BBC News: "In the scientific community, there's a feeling that
it's not as intense as we first thought it might be. But it's possible
still that it could be a large enough event for us to see the northern
lights in the UK."

However, weather forecasts suggested cloudy conditions could mar views
of any aurorae.
Technological impact

The US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) said
that three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were en route as the result of
solar flares on the 13, 14 and 15 February (GMT).

"The last of the three seems to be the fastest and may catch both of the
forerunners about mid-to-late day tomorrow, February 17," read a
statement from Noaa's Space Weather Prediction Center.
Aurorae The northern lights could be seen further south than is normal

The flare recorded at 0156 GMT on 15 February was the strongest such
event in four years, according to the US space agency (Nasa), which has
been monitoring activity on the Sun. The event was classified as a
so-called X-flare, the most intense type.

The source of all three events, sunspot 1158, has expanded rapidly in
recent days.

Solar flares are caused by the sudden release of magnetic energy stored
in the Sun's atmosphere.

Their effects can interfere with modern technology on Earth, such as
electrical power grids, communications systems and satellites -
including satellite navigation (or sat-nav) signals.

Although scientists are expecting most geomagnetic activity to occur on
Thursday, Chinese state media has already reported some disruption to
shortwave radio communications in the south of the country.
Awakening Sun

In 1972, a geomagnetic storm provoked by a solar flare knocked out
long-distance telephone communication across the US state of Illinois.
And in 1989, another storm plunged six million people into darkness
across the Canadian province of Quebec.

Dr Thomson said it was possible infrastructure could be affected this
time, but stressed: "The X-flare that was observed the other day was
lower in magnitude than similar flares that have been associated with
technological damage such as the loss of the Quebec power grid... and
even the large magnetic storm in 2003, which caused some damage to
satellites in orbit."

Scientists will have around half an hour's notice that the wave of
charged particles is about to hit the Earth's magnetic shield.

This is taken from the point at which a Nasa satellite called Ace (the
Advanced Composition Explorer) registers the solar radiation on its
instruments: "We're sitting waiting for that event to happen," said Dr
Thomson.

Well, that ought to provide some interesting blackout-hotspot patterns
the next few days.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I would disconnect the longwires for today . Just in case ...- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt
Issued: 2011 Feb 17 1805 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
#
# Geophysical Alert Message
#
Solar-terrestrial indices for 16 February follow.
Solar flux 114 and mid-latitude A-index 2.
The mid-latitude K-index at 1800 UTC on 17 February was 1 (9 nT).

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

This does not look like a perceptive prediction to me. *Are they
missing something, or am I?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

....and here's why. Much ado about (almost) nothing...

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/su...11-xclass.html

On 02/17/2011 11:53 AM, bpnjensen wrote:

#
Solar-terrestrial indices for 16 February follow.
Solar flux 114 and mid-latitude A-index 2.
The mid-latitude K-index at 1800 UTC on 17 February was 1 (9 nT).

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

This does not look like a perceptive prediction to me. Are they
missing something, or am I?

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet on day one (February 17). An
increase to unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for minor
storm periods is expected late on day one into day two (18
February). The increased activity is forecast due to the expected
arrival of the CME associated with the X2 flare that occurred on
15/0156Z. Day three (19 February) is expected to be quiet to active
as the disturbance subsides.

On Thu, 17 Feb 2011 11:58:57 -0800 (PST), bpnjensen
wrote:

On Feb 17, 11:53*am, bpnjensen wrote:
On Feb 17, 11:49*am, wrote:





On Feb 17, 10:54*am, bpnjensen wrote:

On Feb 17, 5:35*am, dave wrote:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12493980

Solar flare eruptions set to reach Earth
By Paul Rincon Science reporter, BBC News

Scientists around the world will be watching closely as three eruptions
from the Sun reach the Earth over Thursday and Friday.

These "coronal mass ejections" will slam into the Earth's magnetic shield.

The waves of charged solar particles are the result of three solar
flares directed at Earth in recent days, including the most powerful
since 2006.

The biggest flares can disrupt technology, including power grids,
communications systems and satellites.

The northern lights (Aurora Borealis) may also be visible further south
than is normally the case - including from northern parts of the UK.

"Our current view is that the effect of the solar flare is likely to
reach Earth later today (Thursday GMT), possibly tomorrow morning," said
Alan Thomson, head of geomagnetism at the British Geological Survey (BGS).

He told BBC News: "In the scientific community, there's a feeling that
it's not as intense as we first thought it might be. But it's possible
still that it could be a large enough event for us to see the northern
lights in the UK."

However, weather forecasts suggested cloudy conditions could mar views
of any aurorae.
Technological impact

The US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) said
that three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were en route as the result of
solar flares on the 13, 14 and 15 February (GMT).

"The last of the three seems to be the fastest and may catch both of the
forerunners about mid-to-late day tomorrow, February 17," read a
statement from Noaa's Space Weather Prediction Center.
Aurorae The northern lights could be seen further south than is normal

The flare recorded at 0156 GMT on 15 February was the strongest such
event in four years, according to the US space agency (Nasa), which has
been monitoring activity on the Sun. The event was classified as a
so-called X-flare, the most intense type.

The source of all three events, sunspot 1158, has expanded rapidly in
recent days.

Solar flares are caused by the sudden release of magnetic energy stored
in the Sun's atmosphere.

Their effects can interfere with modern technology on Earth, such as
electrical power grids, communications systems and satellites -
including satellite navigation (or sat-nav) signals.

Although scientists are expecting most geomagnetic activity to occur on
Thursday, Chinese state media has already reported some disruption to
shortwave radio communications in the south of the country.
Awakening Sun

In 1972, a geomagnetic storm provoked by a solar flare knocked out
long-distance telephone communication across the US state of Illinois.
And in 1989, another storm plunged six million people into darkness
across the Canadian province of Quebec.

Dr Thomson said it was possible infrastructure could be affected this
time, but stressed: "The X-flare that was observed the other day was
lower in magnitude than similar flares that have been associated with
technological damage such as the loss of the Quebec power grid... and
even the large magnetic storm in 2003, which caused some damage to
satellites in orbit."

Scientists will have around half an hour's notice that the wave of
charged particles is about to hit the Earth's magnetic shield.

This is taken from the point at which a Nasa satellite called Ace (the
Advanced Composition Explorer) registers the solar radiation on its
instruments: "We're sitting waiting for that event to happen," said Dr
Thomson.

Well, that ought to provide some interesting blackout-hotspot patterns
the next few days.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I would disconnect the longwires for today . Just in case ...- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt
Issued: 2011 Feb 17 1805 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
#
# Geophysical Alert Message
#
Solar-terrestrial indices for 16 February follow.
Solar flux 114 and mid-latitude A-index 2.
The mid-latitude K-index at 1800 UTC on 17 February was 1 (9 nT).

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

This does not look like a perceptive prediction to me. *Are they
missing something, or am I?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

...and here's why. Much ado about (almost) nothing...

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/su...11-xclass.html

Well, until then.... All India Radio strong @ 2159 with the news in
English on 6280 kHz after a very lengthy sitar tune.

Jim(MI)