:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Feb 01 0641 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
25 - 31 January 2016

Solar activity was at very low to low levels during the period. Low
levels were observed from 25-29 January with Regions 2488 (N02,
L=320, class/area Dai/240 on 25 January) and 2489 (N10, L=253,
class/area Eko/300 on 29 January) producing the majority of the
C-class flaring. The largest flare of the period was a C9/1f at
28/1202 UTC from Region 2488. Region 2488 was in slow decay over the
period. Region 2489 continued to exhibit growth through 28 January
and slowly decayed thereafter. Several filament eruptions, and
subsequent coronal mass ejections (CMEs), were observed during the
period, but none had an Earth-directed component.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels from 25-27 January, moderate levels on 28 January, and
normal levels from 29-31 January. The maximum flux of the period was
2,117 pfu observed at 26/1500 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels throughout the
period with isolated unsettled periods on 27-28 and 31 January and
an isolated active period observed late on 31 January. Solar wind
parameters were in decline as the period began under the waning
influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS). Solar wind speed gradually decreased from approximately 480
km/s early in the period to around 260 km/s by 30 January before
increasing slightly to 300 km/s by the end-of-the-period. A solar
sector boundary crossing into a positive (away) orientation occurred
at approximately 27/0834 UTC, accompanied by a slight increase in
total field (Bt) measurements to 9 nT on 27 and 28 January. On 31
January, another increase in Bt to 10 nT was observed along with a
prolonged period of southward Bz. The geomagnetic field responded
with isolated active levels to end the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
01 February - 27 February 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a
chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) from 03-25
February with the return of old Regions 2484 (N08, L=094) and 2488
(N02, L=320).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely
on 04-07, 09-15, and 18-23 February as a result of CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on 01 February due to continued effects from a prolonged
period of southward Bz. Unsettled to active levels are likely from
02-04, 08-09, and 17-20 February due to recurrent CH HSS activity.