:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2016 Feb 15 0238 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
08 - 14 February 2016

Solar activity was low from 08-11 Feb. The largest C-class event
during that period was a C8/1f observed at 11/2103 UTC from Region
2497 (N13, L=087, class/area Eac/250 on 12 Feb) with associated Type
II (est. speed 483 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. A CME was visible
following this event and is anticipated to arrive at Earth early on
15 Feb. Solar activity was moderate from 12-14 Feb with Region 2497
producing an M1 flare each day. No other Earth-directed CMEs were
observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels during the period.

Geomagnetic field activity began the week at minor storm levels due
to effects from a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a CH
HSS. Predominately quiet to unsettled levels were observed for the
remainder of the period with isolated active periods on 09, 11 and
12 Feb associated with extended periods of negative Bz.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
15 February - 12 March 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a
chance for M-class flares from 15-17 Feb. Activity is expected to
decrease to very low levels with only a chance for C-class flares
from 18-29 Feb as Region 2497 moves beyond the west limb. Low levels
are anticipated once again on 01-12 Mar as well as a chance for
M-class flares with the return of Region 2497.

A slight chance for a proton event exists at geosynchronous orbit
from 15-17 Feb due to the flare potential and position of Region
2497.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the majority of the
period. High levels are likely on 18-20 Feb following effects from a
CME and a subsequent CH HSS.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach minor storm levels
on 15 Feb due to effects from the 11 Feb CME. Quiet to active
conditions are expected on 16 Feb as CME effects subside. Minor
storm conditions are likely again on 17 Feb as a recurrent negative
polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected with isolated active periods possible on 18-20 Feb as
CH HSS effects continue. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on
21-29 Feb. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from 01-03 Mar
due to effects from a positive polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected for the remainder of the period with
unsettled to active periods possible on 06-07 Mar and 11 Mar as two
sequential small recurrent coronal holes affect the field.