"running dogg"

The Chinese are currently financing the US government. They hold a BIG
chunk of US debt. The West has shifted all its manufacturing facilities
to China so in the event of a China collapse there might be serious
shortages of most goods.


What you are likely to see in China is the collapse of their banks, which
are
already insolvent and technically bankrupt, and the disentigration of the
CCP.
Neither of which will likely spell the end of their manufacturing base. In
the very short term there may be disruptions but it would quickly recover
and without the CCPoverhead possibly become much more robust.

I think your hatred of the CCP has blinded you
to the serious implications of a potential China collapse.

Your love of the CCP has seriously blinded you to a brutal muderous regime
which is deeply hated by their own people.

The DMZ is the most fortified border on earth. The North Koreans have
gone to great lengths to make sure that nobody crosses. I'm not so sure
that hordes of refugees will be flooding across.

If the N.Korean side of the DMZ becomes demilitarized because of a regime
colapse you can be sure that waves of refugees will find a way across or
around
it. China would also see refugees.

I don't think you'd see a democracy spring up in NK. They've had 60
years of harsh Stalinist rule. You'd more likely see a situation like in
Afghanistan before the Taliban, with a lot of local party bosses
becoming warlords and establishing fiefdoms.

I see you are assuming that another brutal regime will take hold.
But that is not the scenario I am discussing. Besides another
regime would simply collapse as quikely as the old.

China may send troops to
ensure "stability".

Indeed, and that would be viewed as a very provactive move in Seoul
and the West.

But I don't think China will invade South Korea. The
US is a major trading partner for China; the CCP is NOT going to start a
nuclear war with the US in the name of Communism.

Has it occured to you that whomever overthrows Kim Jong Il may well be
"friendly" with the South?

If China thinks they can keep Kim from nuking Seoul, they may be sadly
mistaken. Unlike the massive bureaucracy that Communism has become in
China, in NK Kim is the end all and be all of government. He is totally
cut off from the rest of the world and lives in a dream world and is
much more likely to start a war with the US to "free" SK. If the US is
forced to invade NK because of Kim, the US will likely reach a quid pro
quo with the Chinese, keeping the Yalu River as the boundary between US
and Chinese troops. The mutual trade between China and the US means that
all out war between the two is not likely, even if China invades Taiwan.
The US establishment is not willing to have a nuclear war over Taiwan or
Korea.

You make many assumptions here about many countries. China is well known
for saber rattling against Taiwan. Taiwan businesses invest heavily in
China as
well. The scenario of any nuclear exchange in the region is very remote.
Regarding
N.Korea, even if Kim Jong Il does indeed have a "couple" of nuclear tipped
weapons, considering the latest intelligence and if his military is even
slightly
coherent", they would likely depose of him and refrain.

In any case, nuclear weapons aside, the Korean peninsular would become
the immediate focus of attention in the West and Beijing and Seoul would
have
many urgent and pressing meetings to attend.