The K7RA Solar Update

SEATTLE, WA, Nov 18, 2005--Just last week we saw no sunspots.
Then on November 13 we saw Sunspot 822 peek around the
eastern side of the visible solar disk. By November 15 we could tell
it was a big one. By today, November 18, the spot should be
squarely facing Earth. The daily sunspot number rose from 26 on
Monday, November 14, to 32, 58 and 62 on November 17.

Daily solar flux is based on the 2.8 GHz energy received from the
sun at an observatory in Penticton, British Columbia, Canada, at
local noon, which is 2000 UTC. The observatory has a parabolic
dish antenna aimed at the sun, and it produces three readings per
day at 1800, 2000 and 2200 UTC, although the 2000 UTC
measurement is the only number recorded as the official daily solar
flux. This number is related to the area and number of sunspots
facing Earth, but does not track it precisely. But it is more objective
than counting sunspots and measuring their area, which is how the
daily sunspot number is derived, and it has the advantage of being
able to take readings on overcast days.

For the past two days, November 16 and 17, the three daily
readings were 93.2, 94, 96, 97.1, 100.5 and 103.2. The 94 and
100.5 readings taken at local noon each day were the official solar
flux numbers for those days, so as you can see, the trend is up.
Currently the interplanetary magnetic field is pointing south, which
means Earth is vulnerable to any flares from Sunspot 822.

This weekend is the ARRL November Sweepstakes (SSB) contest.
Sunspot numbers and solar flux both are expected to remain
relatively high, with solar flux remaining around 100 for the next
week. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain low over the
weekend, with the planetary A index for November 18-21 at 5, 5, 7
and 12. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions on
November 24, quiet to unsettled November 20, 22 and 23, and unsettled November
18, 19 and
21.

Tom Coates, N3IJ, wrote to ask about getting the WWV geo-alert messages via the
Internet.
These alerts are transmitted at 18 minutes after each hour, and you can also
read the latest
copy on the Space Environment Center Web site. The same report is available via
telephone at
303-497-3235. The broadcasts are updated every three hours, after 0000 UTC, 0300
UTC,
0600 UTC, 0900 UTC and so on.

Osten Magnusson, SM5DQC, observes that the lower the solar flux, the better 160
meters
seems to be. "Around October 25 the 160 meter band was as good as it can be," he
wrote
November 11. "Now it's down again as sunspots have increased. Maybe it's not
scientific, but
this is my experience!"

We received several interesting and informative emails concerning 10 meters. Ten
seems to be
open over various paths quite often, although with the solar activity lower many
people are not
showing up and operating. Those that do operate sometimes observe interesting
propagation.

Joe Murray, K0VTY, of Ithaca, Nebraska, said he heard LU6GB working NL7Z on
28.49 MHz at
2012 UTC on November 6. When Joe worked LU6GB, signals were S9 both ways for 30
to 40
minutes. Of course, it helps that Joe runs a 7-element homebrew monoband Yagi
that he built
more than 40 years ago. He had it AZ-EL mounted in 1965 with stacked 11-element
2 meter
Yagis for satellite work, back when only the 2 and 10 meter bands were used for
OSCAR. On
November 13 Joe wrote again to say that from 1805 until 1820 UTC that day he
worked Brazil
and Chile on 10 meters with solid signals.

Joe Living, W3GW/KH6, lives on Maui, and he listens to 10 meters every Saturday.
He hears
many mainland US stations that cannot hear each other and often copies beacons.
On
November 12 at 1900 UTC he heard the K5AB beacon in Texas at S5. On September 5
he
worked George, KA9YCB, in Southern Illinois. George was using a tiny indoor
magnetic loop
antenna. On November 13 Joe worked K7LEK in Nevada on 28.4 MHz, then KD6AXR in
Fullerton, California, broke in, and of course he and K7LEK could not hear each
other. Joe
mentioned that he would like to monitor 28.31 MHz every Saturday, SSB or CW, for
readers of
this report who wish to check the 10 meter path to Maui.

Most interesting this week was an e-mail from Martin McCormick, WB5AGZ, of
Stillwater,
Oklahoma. Martin was amazed on the morning of November 14 at 0200 CST local time
(0800
UTC) to record the KQ2H repeater system in New York on 29.62 MHz FM. The
repeater faded
out, then began coming in again around 0530 local time with New York drive-time
traffic,
probably from its 2 meter link. By 0600 CST it was full-quieting. He tuned
around the rest of 10
meters and on the 11 meter band but heard no other activity except the tail end
of an FM signal
briefly on 29.64 MHz. Note that all this activity was overnight; for most of the
time it was dark at
both ends of the path.

I contacted Alex Muzyka, KQ2H, who said the 10 meter transmitter is running 1300
W. The
antenna is a vertical at 300 feet on a tower in Wurtsboro, New York, about 1950
feet above
mean sea level.

Carl Luetzelschwaub, K9LA, comments that this propagation could be due to F2
region
ionization from geomagnetic field activity. Martin thought perhaps this was very
early winter
E-skip.

For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers
used in this
bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service Propagation page. An archive
of past
bulletins is on the ARRL Web site.

Sunspot numbers for November 10 through 16 were 0, 0, 11, 16, 26, 32 and 58,
with a mean of
20.4. The 10.7 cm flux was 77.9, 78.6, 83.1, 87.8, 92.4, 100, and 94, with a
mean of 87.7.
Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 5, 10, 14, 10, 4 and 3, with a mean of
6.9. Estimated
mid-latitude A indices were 1, 3, 7, 12, 7, 5 and 1, with a mean of 5.1.
(K7RA, ARRL)

dxAce
Michigan
USA

In article .com,
"RHF" wrote:

don, Don. DON !

DX Ace posted an On Topic News Item about "Propagation"

A 'you' turn it into another Liberal Hate Bashing Post [.]

Don Wrote : " I hope someone kills this explative deleted this week. "

Don - - - kill - you say,,, Kill - You Say... KILL - YOU SAY ! ! !

Snip

Yeah put the Trolling idiots in the kill file.

You are a bigger problem than "Don" because he is already in the kill
file and the only reason I see this stuff is because YOU re-post it.

Now start behaving yourself OK and stop condoning and promoting bad
USENET behavior by using "OT" in the subject.

--
Telamon
Ventura, California

Don wrote:
"dxAce" wrote...

Pussy boy said this:

The K7RA Solar Update

I hope someone kills this mother****er this week.

Why, Ace, looks like you've got a stalker!

--
If John McCain gets the 2008 Republican Presidential nomination,
my vote for President will be a write-in for Jiang Zemin.