I'll run about 250Wpep. This leaves me below 1/10 the uncontrolled
limit (ignoring duty cycle) except directly underneath and in-line
with the doublet (which by chance is difficult to get near).

Do not ignore duty cycle. It is one of the most important factors involved.
For someone like myself, who listens a lot on CW and does not transmit much,
the duty cycle is something like 1% and this makes a huge difference in the
exposure results.

250 watts PEP (with reasonable compression) and a talk time of perhaps 25%
probably yields a duty cycle less than 10%. (Someone else will probably
have a real formula for PEP x compression x average voice.) The averaging
time is not always clear in the exposure formulas, and this could make a
large difference. What is your duty cycle averaged over 24 hours?

Bill
W2WO