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#31
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"Mark Howell" wrote in message
As the author of what you term the Bakersfield argument, I contend your argument fails because you (a) assume the station is priced correctly and the buyer did not over-pay -- which is a common phenomenon in broadcasting -- and (b) fail to take market size into account. Los Angeles is so big that a station with a tiny percentage of the audience is still reaching so many people that it can be profitable. On a) I suppose my phrasing was a bit ambiguous. I didn't mean to imply that this particular station was correctly priced, only that markets are wise to price a scarce asset like a radio station according to its reach, not according to its billing in some passing, suboptimal implementation. Whether in large communities or small, a free market in scarce licenses virtually guarantees that stations end up in the hands of the brave or foolhardy or optimistic entities that are willing to pay the most. At least where there's no sentimental legacy attachment, as there clearly is in Bakersfield. Can the govt. really know how many stations a market is able to support, if entrepreneurs are willing to bet their own funds that that market can support one more? Isn't the advertising market dynamic with the evolution of traditional employees into contractors who must flog their services continually? Most importantly, doesn't the rate of return generated by that advertising market depend fundamentally on what the high bidders freely dared to pay for their licenses? And wouldn't a Bakersfield-inspired, govt.-imposed scarcity work its way right back into the license price...to where the buyer's ROI from operations got knocked down all over again? Jerome |
#32
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On 28 Jul 2003 19:54:08 GMT, "Cooperstown.Net"
wrote: Can the govt. really know how many stations a market is able to support, if entrepreneurs are willing to bet their own funds that that market can support one more? Isn't the advertising market dynamic with the evolution of traditional employees into contractors who must flog their services continually? Most importantly, doesn't the rate of return generated by that advertising market depend fundamentally on what the high bidders freely dared to pay for their licenses? And wouldn't a Bakersfield-inspired, govt.-imposed scarcity work its way right back into the license price...to where the buyer's ROI from operations got knocked down all over again? What we have now is government-imposed oversupply. When we had free competition, we had two-thirds of stations losing money, so the government stepped in to keep them on the air by allowing consolidation of ownership. Without that intervention, the less capable operators would have gone bust and we would have far fewer stations on the air than we do today, (just as when we have too many grocery stores, those that can't maintain market share go out of business). Had that happened, we might not be having all these debates about how local service has gone to hell in a handbasket. Instead, the government created a mechanism that allowed the bad operators and marginal signals to cash out at inflated prices to roll-ups -- and some of these stations were even put on the air with the specific purpose of so doing. Mark Howell |
#33
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Exactly what is the point of broadcasting these zero-ratings,
zero-advertiser, zero-listener formats in IBOC digital?? You miss the point. The point is that, once the stations goes digital, they can convert to music formats and be competative with FM in terms of sound quality -- and (with good programming and promotion) ultimately market share. There might be an improvement in quality but it could never match FM due to the data compression artifacts. Since it will take several years for there to be a substantial installed base of IBOC radio receivers, which stations would you propose converting first? The ones that already have a large listenership, or the secondary players? Remember, digital is an equalizer -- you don't need to have the most powerful transmitter in the market in order to act like you do. Coverage area would be substantially reduced due to all the adjacent channel interferance. And besides, it would be unusable at night. What's pointless is converting the major stations that current have talk formats, with Dr. Laura, Rush, etc. The digital artifacts are most noticable with talk, anyway. What digital broadcasting does is provide a scenario whereby the smaller AM stations that have fallen into disuse can find new life (and from their owners' perspective, gain value). - Jonathan I wouldn't start counting the added revenue yet. Bob Radil A ?subject=NewsgroupRes ponse" E-Mail /A |
#34
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WBRW wrote:
Country, does not exist on the air within 50 miles of NYC. Yes, yes, yes, people say that there simply aren't that many country music fans within the City itself, and they're correct -- but any decent NYC-area signal will cover plenty of the surrounding suburban areas were there are many country fans. "Y-107" proved this, with its lousy-ass signal getting better ratings -- even within the NYC market itself I think you're ignoring the other part of the curve for a broadcaster and that's the issue of what a broadcaster can earn with a particular format. The likely reason that country doesn't work in NYC is that advertisers in NYC don't want to target country music listeners, or alternatively even though large in number, they're too spread out to support many small advertisers away from where they regularly travel. |
#35
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On 8 Aug 2003 22:40:23 GMT, Art Clemons
wrote: I think you're ignoring the other part of the curve for a broadcaster and that's the issue of what a broadcaster can earn with a particular format. The likely reason that country doesn't work in NYC is that advertisers in NYC don't want to target country music listeners, or alternatively even though large in number, they're too spread out to support many small advertisers away from where they regularly travel. One, I think it's snobbery. Two, much of today's Country doesn't sound much different than AC. Three, media buyers are younger than most Boybands and the owners are chicken. They'd all rather the the 11th techno-alternative-trance-AC-Urban-Polka station in the market before taking the Country plunge. I would bet that if Roseland ( a local concert venue in Manhattan) had a country night every week we'd have to rope off the streets to control the crowds. Even better, the guns wouldn't be automatic weapons, they'd be six shooters like the good ol days. Rich |
#36
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On 10 Aug 2003 16:09:38 GMT, Rich Wood
wrote: One, I think it's snobbery. Two, much of today's Country doesn't sound much different than AC. Three, media buyers are younger than most Boybands and the owners are chicken. Can't comment on point three, but your first two are bulls-eyes! Point two in particular is right on target. when talking about today's "mainstream" country. The currents, recurrents and even most of the oldies sound closer to the hits of the Top 40 Era than the music being played on CHR and some AC stations. In fact, some of the song and artists played as oldies on mainstream country stations *are* straight out of the Top 40 Era -- Johnny Cash, Statler Brothers, Oak Ridge Boys, Dolly Parton, quite a long list of country acts that are fondly remembered by Baby Boomers who grew up on Top 40. And let's not forget the number of country performers, especially female artists, who are actually getting a lot of play on AC radio and VH-1. Sometimes I turn on VH-1 while I'm at the computer just because I enjoy looking at Faith Hill, Shania Twain, Martina McBride, etc. Country has always been an important part of what started as Top 40 and has evolved into Adult Contemporary. I grew up listening to rockabilly, along with the blues, R&B, and Brill Building pop that also contributed to the big hits of the '50s, '60s and early '70s. At the time I didn't care for much "hardcore" country -- George Jones, Tammy Wynette, Loretta Lynn, Conway Twitty (himself a Top 40 one-hit wonder with "Make Believe"), Porter Wagoner and the like -- probably because it was the "old folks" music my parents and grandparents listened to. But when Ray Charles did an entire album of country songs, I listened and liked what I heard. When Roger Miller and Ray Stevens turned out very clever novelty songs, I didn't care how they were categorized. When Patsy Cline sang "Crazy", it didn't matter one bit that both the song and the singer were considered country. And to be honest, I didn't consider Johnny Cash's "Ring Of Fire" country at all, since I JUST KNEW that country music never used mariachi trumpets! All these artists were able to co-exist on the Hot 100 with Chuck Berry, Brook Benton, the Beach Boys, the Four Seasons, and all of the Memphis, Motown and British Invasion acts. If the music was good and spoke to the teenaged heart-and-soul, that's all that mattered to us back then. Today's music industry, including music radio formats, is actually hurting itself with its emphasis on format fragmentation. An artist, label or station that tries to reach only a specific audience is in trouble when the day comes that the audience stops listening and buying. OTOH, an artist, label or station with broad appeal can continue to sell to a maturing/aging audience even as a new generation discovers it -- even if that sort of appeal skips a generation now and then before being rediscovered, as happened with Dolly Parton and more recently with Tony Bennett. They'd all rather the the 11th techno-alternative-trance-AC-Urban-Polka station in the market before taking the Country plunge. And when the Flavor Of The Month changes, they'll change format in search of another short-term success. Their problem, not the listeners'. Now that I'm a fulltime listener, the music-station presets on my radios are filled with various flavors of oldies stations. If I'm listening to a Classic Rock station and a song comes on that I don't especially care for, I punch over to a Classic Hits station ... or an AC with an extensive oldies library. If all else fails, I grab a CD from the Time-Life or Rhino catalogs. Rap, trance, boy-bands and the other genres that appeal to today's youth may or may not be popular a few years from now; the music I listen to has been around for fifty years, more or less, and it still appeals to the largest and most affluent generation in history. Maybe today's youth-oriented stations are actually the modern equivalent of the pioneering Top 40 stations, and they'll be successful for decades to come. But that's not the way I'd bet. I just don't see a modern-day Alan Freed, Bruce Morrow or Art Roberts among the current crop of jocks. Nor do I see very many record industry execs these days who working to find and develop artists with even moderately broad-based appeal. Tommy Mottola has had considerable success, but he's still a long way from becoming the next Clive Davis; as far as I can tell no one is even trying to become the next Berry Gordy, Sam Phillips or Phil Spector. I would bet that if Roseland ( a local concert venue in Manhattan) had a country night every week we'd have to rope off the streets to control the crowds. Even better, the guns wouldn't be automatic weapons, they'd be six shooters like the good ol days. I dunno. These days even rural deputy sheriffs and Texas Rangers (the closest modern kin of the Old West lawmen) carry semi-autos. People just don't respect tradition anymore.g ___ Walter Luffman Medina, TN USA Amateur curmudgeon, equal-opportunity annoyer |
#37
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#38
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![]() "Walter Luffman" wrote in message ... On 14 Aug 2003 17:07:14 GMT, (Sven Franklyn Weil) wrote: In article , Walter Luffman wrote: few years from now; the music I listen to has been around for fifty years, more or less, and it still appeals to the largest and most affluent generation in history. And it's a generation that is aging out of the range advertisers want. It's also a generation whose upper tiers are dying off. Most Top 40 Oldies fans (including rockabilly, blues and other genres popular in the early portion of that era) are Baby Boomers, the leader edge of which group is only now in its late fifties. Even extending the beginning of the "Top 40 generation" upward a few years, they're in their early 60s at most, which means relatively few already dying of age-related causes. And we Baby Boomers generally have more disposable income today than we ever had in our past. The kids are out on their own. We're either at or just past our peak earning years. Our homes are already paid off. We can treat ourselves to luxuries we could never afford when we were younger. Believe me, I buy a lot more than Metamucil and blood-pressure pills! Stop there. Adevertisers determine where ad money will be spent. When station reps or sellers call, if they do not offer the target deemo, they are wasting their time. Very, very few advertisers use radio to reach 55+ consumers, whatever their income level. The main reason is a belief, backed by tons of research, that older consumers are more set in buying patterns and thus require much more advertising (repetiton) to be convinced to change. In most cases, the increase in frequency is not worth the eventual sale. So 90+ percent of ad campaigns are not targeted at 55+. Since these decisions are made by marketers at P&G and Ford and Budweiser, there is no way individeual stasitons or groups can possibly get through at that level... in fact, demographics were probably considered in procut design. Those who do target 55+ ususally use specialized magazines (AARP, for example) and special interest publications (like travel magazines, finance magazines, etc.) since they are efficient in reaching 55+ persons. Who cares? Most of my contemporaries would rather pay off their credit card debt, or just pay cash and stay out of debt in the first place. You might have a point when it comes to "the trendiest clothes", though -- I wear a business suit when I must, jeans or khakis when I can, but I stopped worrying about being trendy a long time ago. You are an exceptional person in this group. A significant portion of Americans reaching retirement age have savings under $100,000 (think it is 90% plus) and will live on $1200 in monthly SS payments. Most retired persons have extensive credit card debt, since they use the card to finance emergencies, and then gto for years paying it down. You have something against Wal-Mart, Sears and Best Buy? Yeah, I shop at those places. I also spend lot of money at Home Depot, PetsMart, Office Max, Kroger, various upscale department stores, Starbucks, and even Burger King (although I prefer Sonic Drive-Ins ... I tip the carhops, something I doubt many teenagers ever do). All those places are part of "middle America". I have no idea where people in parts of America outside the "middle" shop. And I don't especially care where people outside the United States shop, although I would presume they shop primarily in their home countries because of convenience. Where you shop or how much you spend is not the issue. It is how much in dollars per person an advertiser would spend to get you to quit buying Metamucil at Wal-Mart and start getting it at Target. The conclusion by most is that changing life-long brand preference is more expensive to change than the profit on several years consumption of Metamucil, even if you use really heaping tablespoons full. |
#39
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see below
David Eduardo wrote: "Walter Luffman" wrote in message ... On 14 Aug 2003 17:07:14 GMT, (Sven Franklyn Weil) wrote: In article , Walter Luffman wrote: few years from now; the music I listen to has been around for fifty years, more or less, and it still appeals to the largest and most affluent generation in history. And it's a generation that is aging out of the range advertisers want. It's also a generation whose upper tiers are dying off. Most Top 40 Oldies fans (including rockabilly, blues and other genres popular in the early portion of that era) are Baby Boomers, the leader edge of which group is only now in its late fifties. Even extending the beginning of the "Top 40 generation" upward a few years, they're in their early 60s at most, which means relatively few already dying of age-related causes. And we Baby Boomers generally have more disposable income today than we ever had in our past. The kids are out on their own. We're either at or just past our peak earning years. Our homes are already paid off. We can treat ourselves to luxuries we could never afford when we were younger. Believe me, I buy a lot more than Metamucil and blood-pressure pills! Stop there. Adevertisers determine where ad money will be spent. When station reps or sellers call, if they do not offer the target deemo, they are wasting their time. thus the problem being identified. Just because the sales folks or ad folks ignore this demo today only seems that they will be replaced in not too distant future. Guess my point is follow the money. Very, very few advertisers use radio to reach 55+ consumers, whatever their income level. The main reason is a belief, backed by tons of research, that older consumers are more set in buying patterns and thus require much more advertising (repetiton) to be convinced to change. can not argue with this on general principal - again - follow the money - the % of disposable $ very soon is not going to be teens but all of us old farts as the snake continues to swallow the elephant - just my opinion and your test obviously show I am dead wrong - but lets talk again in another 10 years and see what the deal is then :-) In most cases, the increase in frequency is not worth the eventual sale. So 90+ percent of ad campaigns are not targeted at 55+. Since these decisions are made by marketers at P&G and Ford and Budweiser, there is no way individeual stasitons or groups can possibly get through at that level... in fact, demographics were probably considered in procut design. Those who do target 55+ ususally use specialized magazines (AARP, for example) and special interest publications (like travel magazines, finance magazines, etc.) since they are efficient in reaching 55+ persons. So decide which side you are arguing - think these publications are doing OK and are increasing distribution and revenue (though I may just be old) Who cares? Most of my contemporaries would rather pay off their credit card debt, or just pay cash and stay out of debt in the first place. You might have a point when it comes to "the trendiest clothes", though -- I wear a business suit when I must, jeans or khakis when I can, but I stopped worrying about being trendy a long time ago. You are an exceptional person in this group. A significant portion of Americans reaching retirement age have savings under $100,000 (think it is 90% plus) and will live on $1200 in monthly SS payments. Most retired persons have extensive credit card debt, since they use the card to finance emergencies, and then gto for years paying it down. OK - even if all us old farts are broke and deep in debt, the card companies and banks keep letting us buy, though I doubt these statistics as they apply to the present 50 to 60 age group, maybe for present 70+ folks your numbers work - what you got for the current 50 to 60 group? You have something against Wal-Mart, Sears and Best Buy? Yeah, I shop at those places. I also spend lot of money at Home Depot, PetsMart, Office Max, Kroger, various upscale department stores, Starbucks, and even Burger King (although I prefer Sonic Drive-Ins ... I tip the carhops, something I doubt many teenagers ever do). All those places are part of "middle America". I have no idea where people in parts of America outside the "middle" shop. And I don't especially care where people outside the United States shop, although I would presume they shop primarily in their home countries because of convenience. Where you shop or how much you spend is not the issue. It is how much in dollars per person an advertiser would spend to get you to quit buying Metamucil at Wal-Mart and start getting it at Target. The conclusion by most is that changing life-long brand preference is more expensive to change than the profit on several years consumption of Metamucil, even if you use really heaping tablespoons full. Again - this may be true today, but the elephant is getting to be toward the back of that snake and that elephant has lots of disposable $ compared to a current 15 year old population. I would think that at some point ad and marketing folks would at least look at this reality. Or maybe I am just old an senile and unrealistic |
#40
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On 18 Aug 2003 14:22:40 GMT, "David Eduardo"
wrote: Stop there. Adevertisers determine where ad money will be spent. When station reps or sellers call, if they do not offer the target deemo, they are wasting their time. Very, very few advertisers use radio to reach 55+ consumers, whatever their income level. The main reason is a belief, backed by tons of research, that older consumers are more set in buying patterns and thus require much more advertising (repetiton) to be convinced to change. In most cases, the increase in frequency is not worth the eventual sale. So 90+ percent of ad campaigns are not targeted at 55+. Maybe you're right, maybe not. I wouldn't know, since I'm only 54. But I watch the all-news cable channels instead of MTV, and most of the commercials I see are for things that are marketed to my generation. Same goes for the radio stations I listen to and the magazines I read -- I choose the ones that meet my tastes, and they are the ones advertisers use to reach me. I may be an Old Fart (and proud of it!), but that doesn't mean I don't still choose between McDonald's and Wendy's, or between Ford and GM, or between Coke and Pepsi. AAMOF, I recently switched from Coke Classic to Pepsi One. Needed a sugar-free alternative to the Coke I've preferred all my life, and never cared that much for Diet Coke's aftertaste. So I ignored brand loyalty and went with the product I liked better. I suppose that means I can still be swayed by advertising if I find the product itself suitable. Since these decisions are made by marketers at P&G and Ford and Budweiser, there is no way individeual stasitons or groups can possibly get through at that level... in fact, demographics were probably considered in procut design. I never said otherwise. But the radio stations I listen to generally carry advertising that's aimed at adults, often at middle-aged and older adults rather than young ones. Advertise anything you want on a CHR station, I'll never hear it. Advertise Clearasil or The Gap on an oldies or news-talk station, you're wasting money. Those who do target 55+ ususally use specialized magazines (AARP, for example) and special interest publications (like travel magazines, finance magazines, etc.) since they are efficient in reaching 55+ persons. Tell me, what ISN'T a special-interest magazine? I suppose Parade and USA Weekend qualify, but I don't know anyone who specifically subscribe to them ... they're just part of the Sunday newspaper, which the grownups subscribe to and the whole family reads. (The newspaper industry admits that newsstands account for only a small portion of total sales.) Life and Look magazines are long gone. Reader's Digest doesn't appeal to kids nearly as much as it does to Old Farts. TV Guide might qualify as a mass-appeal magazine, I suppose. People magazine may have started as a mass-appeal magazine, but these day's it's just a classier version of the gossip magazines and it appeals to much the same audience. I subscribe to a couple dozen different magazines, and I suppose every one of them qualifies as special-interest. That includes AARP Magazine, of course. But it also includes three motorcycle magazines I get, six computer magazines, two veterans' organization magazines and two financial magazines. Sorry, I quit reading Rolling Stone years ago and I never cared for Spin. (But I do pick up several guitar- and bass-oriented magazines on newsstands, since I'm thinking about buying a new instrument or two.) You are an exceptional person in this group. A significant portion of Americans reaching retirement age have savings under $100,000 (think it is 90% plus) and will live on $1200 in monthly SS payments. Incorrect. reread your own statement. Hardly anyone reaching retirement age is receiving Social Security payments; it's those who have actually reached the minimum age and who have also chosen to retire (or those who are old enough to continue working while simultaneously receiving SS) who receive Social Security benefits. (And a few people like me receive Social Security Disability Income benefits, but that's not the same as the retirement benefit.) Most retired persons have extensive credit card debt, since they use the card to finance emergencies, and then gto for years paying it down. Not the retirees I know. They pay off their cards every month, and have ever since they figured out how much of their debt was due to interest and other charges. Where you shop or how much you spend is not the issue. It is how much in dollars per person an advertiser would spend to get you to quit buying Metamucil at Wal-Mart and start getting it at Target. The conclusion by most is that changing life-long brand preference is more expensive to change than the profit on several years consumption of Metamucil, even if you use really heaping tablespoons full. And Metamucil itself is only a tiny part of the issue, since as I have pointed out I buy a lot of the same things that younger adults do. (Actually, in my case it's Fibercon these days; I switched from Metamucil a few years ago. I also switched from Kmart to Wal-Mart for most of my "mart" shopping, and most recently began shopping at Target also. Why Target? Because it's near several other stores where I shop -- Radio Shack, Office Max, CD Warehouse, Goody's (the clothing chain, not Sam Goody), Kroger supermarkets, and several restaurants of both the fast-foot and "regular" variety. (But now there's a new Starbucks across the street from the Wal-Mart Supercenter, so I still go in that direction quite a bit.) Perhaps when you're older you'll understand that a lot of advertisers do recognize the economic clout of the Baby Boom generation and target us through our "specialized" media. ___ Walter Luffman Medina, TN USA Amateur curmudgeon, equal-opportunity annoyer |
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