:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2017 Jan 16 0341 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
09 - 15 January 2017

Solar activity was mostly at very low levels with low levels
observed on 12 January due to an isolated C3 flare observed at
12/1618 UTC from Region 2625 (N03, L=254, class/area Cso/050 on 14
January). An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed off
the east limb in coronagraph imagery beginning at 12/1624 UTC, but
was determined not to have a geoeffective component. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels throughout the period. The largest flux of the period
was 42,125 pfu observed at 09/1805 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels over
the period. Solar wind speed began the period near 700 km/s with
total field near 5 nT under the influence of a negative polarity
coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). By 10 January, solar wind
speed was in decline, reaching nominal levels late on 12 January.
Total field was variable between 1-7 nT for the rest of the period.
The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 09
January, quiet to unsettled levels on 10-12 January and quiet levels
on 13-15 January.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 January - 11 February 2017

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flares on 16-26 January as Regions 2625 and 2626 (N09, L=244,
class/area Hax/140 on 15 January) rotate across the visible disk.
Very low levels are expected from 27 January through 11 February.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely
on 16, 18-27 January and again on 01-11 February due to CH HSS
influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active
levels on 17-24 and 27 January-07 February with G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storm levels likely on 18-19 January and 03 February due
to recurrent CH HSS effects.