On Mar 31, 1:59�pm, "AF6AY" wrote:
On Mar 31, 8:02�am, xxx wrote:

*"AF6AY" wrote:
* *Prior to the cessation of code testing for US amateur radio
* *license testing, there were a number of speculations on what
* *would happen in the amateur radio ranks. *To see what really
* *happened [...]

* * Are you sure that you've given it enough time? How many non-hams
know anything about any of this? It will probably be years before the
results are in.

* *Yes, an accurate portrayal won't be possible until some time
* *in the future. *However, this day is only the end of March and
* *the code test ended on 23 February 2007. *I was showing what
* *was thought to be the beginning of a trend, based on the FCC
* *database information as collected - en toto - by third parties.

Extrapolation from such limited data may or may not
be representative of a trend.

The daily variation of the license totals can exceed the
apparent growth, too. For example, on February 23, 2007
the total number of current FCC-issued amateur license
held by individuals was 654,710. On March 29, 2007,
the total was 654,774, which looks like a growth of 64.

But in between the daily total has fluctuated all over the place. On
March 16, 2007, the total was 655,025, and on
March 19, 2007 the total was 654,094. That's a variation of
931 in just three days! Of course those are extremes, but you can see
how much of a different conclusion could be drawn depending on which
days you choose to compare.

Over time the trend will become clearer, but a month is
a very short baseline.

* *As far as I can see, the FCC database numbers are "what
* *really happened" in the 30-day period following (and including)
* *the day that amateur radio license testing excluded the code
* *test.

They are certainly one indicator. There are others.

IMHO, it is more accurate to use the number of current,
unexpired licenses rather than including those in the grace
period. Renewal is free, easy and can be done several
ways including online. Why would any licensed amateur
with continued interest allow the license to be in the grace
period without renewing?

* *I may be erroneous in the assumption that the
end of code
* *testing was a landmark decision of major proportions in
* *United States amateur radio. *

When the debate over Morse Code testing was going
on, "growth" was one of the main reasons given to
remove it. I saw many claims that the number of US
amateurs would continue to shrink unless all Morse
Code testing was eliminated, and that many "otherwise
qualified people" would flood into Amateur Radio if all
code testing were eliminated. So far, that doesn't appear
to be happening.

But it's only been a bit over a month. Perhaps there will be long-term
growth, perhaps not. The numbers will tell the story over time.

73 de Jim, N2EY