"AF6AY" wrote:

Yes, an accurate portrayal won't be possible until some time
in the future. However, this day is only the end of March and
the code test ended on 23 February 2007. I was showing what
was thought to be the beginning of a trend, based on the FCC
database information as collected - en toto - by third parties.

Extrapolation from such limited data may or may not
be representative of a trend.

Please forgive me for not having a working crystal ball. The
figures for April to December 2007 and all of 2008 were not
available to me. :-)

However, some "trends" should be clearly visible:
1. There was a sudden jump of seven times the number of
upgrades in a 30 day period as compared to the 30 day
period two months prior.
2. There was a sudden jump of four times the number of
license class changes in a 30 day period as compared
to the 30 day period two months prior.
3. There was an approximate doubling of the number of NEW
(never before licensed) amateurs in a 30 day period as
compared to the 30 day period two months prior.

The daily variation of the license totals can exceed the
apparent growth, too. For example, on February 23, 2007
the total number of current FCC-issued amateur license
held by individuals was 654,710. On March 29, 2007,
the total was 654,774, which looks like a growth of 64.

I specifically used a 30-day period as an averaging scheme
and such averaging over time is quite common in sensing
trends in statistical work. Day-to-day variations DO occur
but a total of actions in a 30-day period do have a smoothing
effect and come closer to an average.

Note that most of the VEC testing schedules are monthly or
bi-weekly.

IMHO, it is more accurate to use the number of current,
unexpired licenses rather than including those in the grace
period. Renewal is free, easy and can be done several
ways including online. Why would any licensed amateur
with continued interest allow the license to be in the grace
period without renewing?

For several possible reasons:
1. Death, natural, suicide, or as the result of (2).
2. Accident or stroke (or similar medical problems) not
allowing full use of communications faculties.
3. Spousal or family or friends' disapproval.
4. Extended military or business relocations.
5. Incarceration or arrest (rare).
6. Growing dissatisfaction with amateur activities and/or
policies.

Now, item (6) might be debateable, but then observe that
your conditional "...with continued interest" implies
that no other reasons are valid, including the possibility
of growing dissatisfaction. I don't choose to argue that
point with you since the rest of your posting appears too
confrontational and argumentative.

I merely compared two 30-day periods based on the numbers
available to all on www.hamdata.com, a service provided
by them and one that is derived from FCC database
information which is available to the public. I trust in
the veracity of that information since it compares well
with other Internet-access sources of statistical
information, also derived from the same FCC database.
The conclusions I came to were my own observations, not
my "opinion" nor of having any preconceived notion of
what "might" happen...only that some did speculate on
"what would happen" in other discussion venues.

I have PDFs of the downloads I used and will ZIP them up
and send them privately via e-mail attachments to anyone
having a valid Internet address. That includes a "nice"
formatting of my original post. If there are errors
between my numbers postings and the www.hamdata.com
numbers, I will acknowledge those errors. At this point
I don't believe there are any errors in my postings'
numerical values.

73, Len AF6AY