Michael Coslo wrote on Tue, 10 Apr 2007 14:00:46 EDT:

Subject: Before and After Cessation of Code Testing

wrote:
On Apr 9, 8:22 pm, "Dee Flint" wrote:

Changes in requirements don't have any effect
when the potential recruits have no idea that the hobby even exists.

I don't believe that there is any significant percentage of the
general population of the USA who has never heard of ham radio.

I don't believe the "changes in requirements" were intended to grow
ham radio.

I don't even care if ham radio grows or doesn't grow. There are
millions of hams on planet Earth, more than enough to fill my logs on
any mode I choose through at least the next four sunspot cycles.

I believe that Hans' percentage numbers are indeed relevant.

In a dynamic area such as ARS license numbers, there is a need to look
beyond raw numbers and to determine exactly why the numbers that you are
comparing look as they do.

In general I agree with you Mike. I've had some trouble getting
to the website where Hans got his numbers; www.ncvec.org doesn't
have any page with that information.

Other than that, amateur radio licensee numbers MUST remain "up"
in order to indicate to the government there is a "presence" of
citizens in a sizeable number that deserves attention. There
are many different radio services regulated by the FCC and
amateur radio is a minority among those.

The "why" of license changes can be determined by different raw
database searching than what most "statistics" websites show.
The information exists as to changes in class. Obviously there
has been a large number of recent "upgrades" of Technician to
General. None of us can find any reasons for licensees letting
their licenses lapse, at least from the raw database.

The FCC database may be publicly-downloadable but it is LARGE
at, what, 80 to 90 Megabytes? One needs high-speed Internet
service for reasonable downloading. File size of the database
is not a problem in modern PCs, nor is it difficult to write a
specific sorting routine to extract various categories' data.
Many publicly-accessible websites already do some sorting.

Why? Some have speculated that the majority of that drop-off was a
change in communication habits, ie. Hams who got their licenses for
purposes of "calling home" to check in, or get a grocery list, or the
like. Some call that flavor of Ham a "honeydo" Ham. These people are
served by Cell phones now.

Based on my experience in southern California, I took the
"honey-do" license reason as pure speculation on others' part.
What I have seen here in the last decade is: (1). A rapid
growth of cellular in its present compact HT form; (2). a
growth of "technician" type VHF and UHF activity which had
already begun well back before the year 2000 Restructuring.

Caveat: I live in a large urban population area, not unlike
the NYC-LI, Chicago, San Francisco ('Bay Area'), Seattle, etc.
areas. VHF-UHF at LOS paths works well in such areas. But,
there is another part of VHF-UHF radio activity that doesn't
quite have the parallel of HF DX hunting, in-person get-
togethers, spontaneous or planned.

The BBS or Bulletin Board System had a tremendous growth
from the early 1980s to the "ripening" of the Internet in
the later 1990s. Quite a number of those BBSs featured
in-person "gatherings" of a social nature where all could
get to know one another better, not through the scarcity of
few clues presented through a computer screen. That's not
unlike the VHF-UHF large urban amateur situation where the
participants can travel a short distance to some gathering.
There's not the "DX Isolation" of hundreds or thousands of
miles to another continent as is often the case on HF.

There's more activity of radio amateurs above 30 MHz than
what the "HF" amateurs think, especially in larger urban
areas. Those who operate above 30 MHz should never be
thought of or even considered as "second-class" amateurs
of the "shack on a belt" category.

I have personally seen a surge of new Hams in our area. We've been
having a 2 percent growth in our area since *before* the testing change,
and assuming that tonights testing is successful, 2 new generals and a
Technician will be added to the ranks this evening. Those new guys don't
know a thing about what the Honeydo hams were doing ten years ago, and
don't particularly care either. They have become interested in Ham
radio, and we've encouraged them every step of the way. We've been
selling the sizzle.

There's a problem with using anecdotal evidence: It is too
limited to apply to the national scene. Changes in licensing
patterns FOR the national area can only be derived from national
licensing information. I can say my 91352 ZIP area has 78 hams
with over 2/3 of those at Tech or Tech-Plus category but it
means little for a national amateur radio condition. Yes, at
my test session on 25 Feb 07 over half were there to get or to
upgrade from Technician licenses. Doesn't mean much to looking
at the overall national scene.

One minor disagreement with Hans, though. I don't care if we get some
kind of huge growth, in fact, that would be lots of problems to deal
with. We need a steady influx of new people to keep the hobby
interesting, and to replace the fact that everyone is terminated to
ground eventually. 1 percent growth would be desirable in that context,
I think.

The national population keeps on growing. Amateur radio licensee
numbers have not over the last four years. To keep a "presence"
of the hobby requires that licensee numbers at least keep pace with
the population increases. The FCC is aware of numbers and serves
the national interest, not just amateurs. The FCC must try to
accomodate all the radio services as best it can. In general, I
see them as doing that.

If the amateur radio licensee numbers are up or at least
maintained,
there will be a MARKET of suppliers of amateur radio goods. That's
important, not just for ready-made super-deluxe do-everything rigs
but also for supplies, of components, of accessories. If the
market sees a decline in percentage of the population, then some
will drop out or the prices of goods will increase.

The amateur radio market has already dropped some. Advertising
sales are down slightly. That was enough to force HR and 73 to
quit their independent publications, for CQ to reduce its VHF
specialty periodical. QST hangs in there on the basis of enormous
support from the ARRL but it is folly to depend on it as the sole
source of all US amateur radio information. Radio Shack is mainly
a purveyor of consumer electronics goods. There are fewer and
fewer "radio parts" stores across the country; most of the old
"radio parts" aren't even made now, their makers into other,
more profitable electronics goods areas. Without a "presence"
in the marketplace, a decline in license numbers could continue
a slow market drought.

BTW, as to Dee Flint's other comment in this thread, the "pros"
in electronics HAVE been informed of the code test elimination
since December, 2006. EDN and Electronic Design, both industry
trades of wide distribution, and SPECTRUM, the membership
magazine of the IEEE had news of that prior to 23 Feb 07. There
were brief mentions of it in various Pentron industry trade
news, even the occasional newspaper "filler" story around the
country. It wasn't known just to already-licensed radio amateurs
but to a larger segment of the electronics-oriented public.

73, Len AF6AY