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#51
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Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
"Michael Coslo" wrote:
I don't think that we have become more greedy or self serving over the years. I'm more inclined to think a nostalgia effect is at work. Perhaps. However, as a youth I can recall numerous stories of how Joe Smith was a chemical engineer at some company, and invented Substance X in his garage while piddling around at home. It is often said that the best job you can have is one that is also a hobby. If ham radio is your hobby, and you work as an electrical engineer by day, can you really "invent" something for ham radio that your employer wouldn't have some type of claim against? In my field, I find many people writing and giving away software. I think how much altruism exists depends on a person's outlook. What real altruism exists in software short of Linux-based products? Granted, there is a large amount of 'shareware' out there, but a sizeable percentage of it is simply crippleware designed to get you to upgrade to the 'commercial' version. What do you base the thesis of declining popularity on? Licensed amateurs as a whole in the US has been declining for 3+ years now. The rate of growth in Japanese amateurs has been anemic, under 1%, for the past 5+ years. UK licenses remain fairly consistent with their peak numbers 12 years ago, although short-term trends do see an increase. Australian licensees have been a 10+% dropoff over the past decade. All of these observations support a generic claim that interest in ham radio is lessening. |
#52
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Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
On Apr 23, 10:41?am, "KH6HZ" wrote:
"Michael Coslo" wrote: In my field, I find many people writing and giving away software. I think how much altruism exists depends on a person's outlook. What real altruism exists in software short of Linux-based products? Granted, there is a large amount of 'shareware' out there, but a sizeable percentage of it is simply crippleware designed to get you to upgrade to the 'commercial' version. Go to Linear Technology (the semiconductor company). They will let anyone download LTSpice, a fully functional, operating SPICE suite, complete with component library and schematic drawing function that will automatically create a SPICE netlist. The manual for it is a separate download, also free to anyone. Not shareware, not some "crippleware designed to make one upgrade." A fully working SPICE program, for nothing. Ideal for amateur radio homebrew projects to check out any circuit before building it in hardware. LTSpice has been out for about a year, already has some hobby groups talking about it, using it, with tips on how to use it for unusual circuits and applications. Licensed amateurs as a whole in the US has been declining for 3+ years now. Not really any big decline. Newcomers (never before licensed) are filling in the gaps left by expirations. Check it out on www.hamdata.com, right on the home page. All of these observations support a generic claim that interest in ham radio is lessening. The drop of Ham Radio, 73 magazines happened in between 1990 and about 2003 due to lack of advertising space sales, particularly among the "Big3" (Yaesu, Icom, Kenwood). Folks tend to ignore those same Big3 are also engaged in making radios for businesses and governments. They probably make more money in that market than in the amateur radio field. However, in the periodicals that survive there continue to be new ham radio models being made and advertised, certain models promoted with extras (such as Icom). Antenna makers are still "up" and so are the hundreds of smaller businesses selling peripheral equipment and add-ons. I'd say that the interest in amateur radio is increasing, not the opposite. There might even be a trend towards more newcomers entering than ever before, some hints of that already shown in numbers on www.hamdata.com. 73, Len AF6AY |
#53
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Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
AF6AY wrote:
On Apr 23, 10:41?am, "KH6HZ" wrote: "Michael Coslo" wrote: In my field, I find many people writing and giving away software. I think how much altruism exists depends on a person's outlook. What real altruism exists in software short of Linux-based products? Granted, there is a large amount of 'shareware' out there, but a sizeable percentage of it is simply crippleware designed to get you to upgrade to the 'commercial' version. Go to Linear Technology (the semiconductor company). They will let anyone download LTSpice, a fully functional, operating SPICE suite, complete with component library and schematic drawing function that will automatically create a SPICE netlist. The manual for it is a separate download, also free to anyone. Not shareware, not some "crippleware designed to make one upgrade." A fully working SPICE program, for nothing. Ideal for amateur radio homebrew projects to check out any circuit before building it in hardware. LTSpice has been out for about a year, already has some hobby groups talking about it, using it, with tips on how to use it for unusual circuits and applications. On my computers, I use the OpenOffice Suite (mostly WP and their spreadsheet) I use Digipan and a whole host of other Ham radio software. Let's not forget N1MM contest logger. A number of people produce software for the PAQSO party. All these things share one thing in common. They are free for the download. Even programs such as EZNEC, while charging for the full version, have a perfectly functional demo version with the biggest limitation being the number of "elements" you can use in it. If that isn't enough, then 4NEC2 is free. Altruism does indeed exist. Licensed amateurs as a whole in the US has been declining for 3+ years now. Not really any big decline. Newcomers (never before licensed) are filling in the gaps left by expirations. Check it out on www.hamdata.com, right on the home page. The "big drop-off" is largely being replaced. While we can discuss the reason that it happened - it did happen. I suspect that we will get to that earlier level at some point. Perhaps the old Tech license was a bit of a dead end? All of these observations support a generic claim that interest in ham radio is lessening. The drop of Ham Radio, 73 magazines happened in between 1990 and about 2003 due to lack of advertising space sales, particularly among the "Big3" (Yaesu, Icom, Kenwood). Folks tend to ignore those same Big3 are also engaged in making radios for businesses and governments. They probably make more money in that market than in the amateur radio field. However, in the periodicals that survive there continue to be new ham radio models being made and advertised, certain models promoted with extras (such as Icom). Antenna makers are still "up" and so are the hundreds of smaller businesses selling peripheral equipment and add-ons. I'd say that the interest in amateur radio is increasing, not the opposite. Agreed. Certainly it is in my area. There are some who would dispute the success we are having in our area (we are running at a 2+ percent increase after factoring in attrition for well over a year now) as a fluke. I might respectfully suggest a new approach. 8^) There might even be a trend towards more newcomers entering than ever before, some hints of that already shown in numbers on www.hamdata.com. The new hams in our area are good people, and are becoming active and well mannered hams. - 73 de Mike KB3EIA - |
#54
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Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
On Apr 10, 2:22 am, "Dee Flint" wrote:
Changes in requirements don't have any effect when the potential recruits have no idea that the hobby even exists. I may have to concede that point, Dee. Here is a recent quote ( http://tinyurl.com/29e856 ) by the CEO of Radio Shack. He said: "Even the name 'RadioShack'-can you imagine two less appealing words placed next to one another?" Day said. "What is that, some kind of World War II terminology? Are ham radio operators still around, even? Aren't we in the digital age?" Yes, from the CEO of Radio Shack! Oh, well! 73, de Hans, K0HB |
#55
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Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
On Apr 25, 9:35�am, Michael Coslo wrote:
AF6AY wrote: On Apr 23, 10:41?am, "KH6HZ" wrote: "Michael Coslo" wrote: In my field, I find many people writing and giving away software. I t hink how much altruism exists depends on a person's outlook. What real altruism exists in software short of Linux-based products? Granted, there is a large amount of 'shareware' out there, but a sizea ble percentage of it is simply crippleware designed to get you to upgrade to the 'commercial' version. Go to Linear Technology (the semiconductor company). They will let anyone download LTSpice, a fully functional, operating SPICE suite, complete with component library and schematic drawing function that will automatically create a SPICE netlist. The manual for it is a separate download, also free to anyone. Not shareware, not some "crippleware designed to make one upgrade." A fully working SPICE program, for nothing. Ideal for amateur radio homebrew projects to check out any circuit before building it in hardware. LTSpice has been out for about a year, already has some hobby groups talking about it, using it, with tips on how to use it for unusual circuits and applications. On my computers, I use the OpenOffice Suite (mostly WP an d their spreadsheet) I use Digipan and a whole host of other Ham radio softwar e. Let's not forget N1MM contest logger. A number of people produce software for the PAQSO party. Reg Edwards' (G4FGQ) whole selection of design software G4FON's Morse Code learning software, to name just one of many Older versions of Spectrogram, an audio spectrum analyzer software with many uses in the ham shack. Several free online Amateur Radio practice test websites All these things share one thing in common. They are free for the download. Even programs such as EZNEC, while charging for the full version, have a perfectly functional demo version with the biggest limitation being the number of "elements" you can use in it. If that isn't enough, then 4NEC2 is free. Altruism does indeed exist. Licensed amateurs as a whole in the US has been declining for 3+ years now. Not really any big decline. Newcomers (never before licensed) are filling in the gaps left by expirations. Check it out on www.hamdata.com, right on the home page. The "big drop-off" is largely being replaced. While we ca n discuss the reason that it happened - it did happen. I suspect that we will get to that earlier level at some point. One factor I have not seem mentioned recently is the effect of rules changes other than license test requirements on the number of hams. For example, in the USA, the license term was doubled from 5 to 10 years back in 1984, and the 'grace period' doubled from one to two years. One effect of these changes was that there were no expirations at all from 1989 to 1994. Another was that the number of totally- inactive-and-not-coming-back hams still shown on the database was increased. Another rules change that effects expirations is the vanity callsign program. Unlike address changes, upgrades, etc., getting a vanity call also generates a renewal. This may profoundly affect the distribution of license expiration dates. With the license term at ten years and the grace period at two years, it can take a pretty long time for the actual loss of amateurs to show up in the totals. It is also important to know the details of what is included in the numbers being cited. The raw numbers of licenses listed by hamdata.com, for example, include both current licenses and those in the grace period, while other sources do not include grace period licensees. Perhaps the old Tech license was a bit of a dead end? Perhaps. However, if so, it should be noted that only a small percentage of them have upgraded in the past 60 days. There is also a fairly large variation in the license totals over fairly short periods of time. For example, the total number of current FCC-issued amateur licenses held by individuals was: 654,680 on Feb 22, 2007 (just before rules changed) 654,265 on Mar 5, 2007 654,160 on Mar 13, 2007 654,816 on Mar 14, 2007 655,025 on Mar 16, 2007 654,094 on Mar 19, 2007 655,136 on Apr 6, 2007 655,233 on Apr 12, 2007 654,649 on Apr 16, 2007 654,540 on Apr 24, 2007 Depending on which dates are compared, all sorts of short-term trends could appear to be happening. For example, from March 13 to April 12 the total grew by 1073 - more than 3 per day! But from April 12 to April 24, they declined by 693 - more than 5 per day. Of course on a longer baseline things will even out; the point is that there are large short-term variations. All of these observations support a generic claim that interest in ham radio is lessening. The drop of Ham Radio, 73 magazines happened in between 1990 and about 2003 due to lack of advertising space sales, particularly among the "Big3" (Yaesu, Icom, Kenwood). Folks tend to ignore those same Big3 are also engaged in making radios for businesses and governments. They probably make more money in that market than in the amateur radio field. However, in the periodicals that survive there continue to be new ham radio models being made and advertised, certain models promoted with extras (such as Icom). Antenna makers are still "up" and so are the hundreds of smaller businesses selling peripheral equipment and add-ons. I'd say that the interest in amateur radio is increasing, not the opposite. Agreed. Certainly it is in my area. There are some who wo uld dispute the success we are having in our area (we are running at a 2+ percent increase after factoring in attrition for well over a year now) as a fluke. I might respectfully suggest a new approach. 8^) "If it happens, it must be possible" There might even be a trend towards more newcomers entering than ever before, some hints of that already shown in numbers onwww.hamdata.com. The new hams in our area are good people, and are becomin g active and well mannered hams. IMHO, that's more important than how many. Looking back over the past decade or so, I see the following trends: - The number of US hams grew in the early 1990s but began a slow decline in the late 1990s. - The number of US hams grew in the early 2000s (2000-2003, after the rules changes that went into effect in April 2000) but the growth was not sustained and began a slow decline in the mid-2003 - The recent changes (Feb 2007) appear to have stopped the decline in the short term. - Both the 2000 and 2007 rules changes had the effect of a far greater number of existing hams upgrading than new hams joining. 73 de Jim, N2EY |
#56
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Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
On Apr 26, 4:35 am, wrote:
On Apr 10, 2:22 am, "Dee Flint" wrote: Changes in requirements don't have any effect when the potential recruits have no idea that the hobby even exists. I may have to concede that point, Dee. Uhhhhh, well, no, I guess I don't concede the point (GULP)! We may be the unwitting butt of the Onion joke, but at least even THEY know about us! We're famous! Sunnuvagun! 73, de Hans, K0HB |
#57
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Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
Michael Coslo wrote on Wed, 25 Apr 2007 09:35:43 EDT
AF6AY wrote: On Apr 23, 10:41?am, "KH6HZ" wrote: "Michael Coslo" wrote: In my field, I find many people writing and giving away software. I think how much altruism exists depends on a person's outlook. What real altruism exists in software short of Linux-based products? Granted, there is a large amount of 'shareware' out there, but a sizeable percentage of it is simply crippleware designed to get you to upgrade to the 'commercial' version. Go to Linear Technology (the semiconductor company). They will let anyone download LTSpice, a fully functional, operating SPICE suite, complete with component library and schematic drawing function that will automatically create a SPICE netlist. The manual for it is a separate download, also free to anyone. Not shareware, not some "crippleware designed to make one upgrade." A fully working SPICE program, for nothing. Ideal for amateur radio homebrew projects to check out any circuit before building it in hardware. LTSpice has been out for about a year, already has some hobby groups talking about it, using it, with tips on how to use it for unusual circuits and applications. On my computers, I use the OpenOffice Suite (mostly WP and their spreadsheet) I was unaware that WordPerfect had any "reader" or equivalent. :-) My upgrade from WP 3.1 to WP 8 came about, I think, from some bean-counter's mistake at a Fry's Electronics sale. For a mere $85 I got the "8" Upgrade plus "Dragon Naturally Speaking" (with nice little single-earphone and boom mike headset). One has to keep eyes and ears and mind open for legitimate bargains...they don't happen often. I use Digipan and a whole host of other Ham radio software. Let's not forget N1MM contest logger. A number of people produce software for the PAQSO party. All these things share one thing in common. They are free for the download. Yes! And there's no need to change/include other Operating Systems on a PC! Linear Technology Corporation isn't all that involved with altruism. Their LTSpice was originally configured to simulate their switching power supply ICs in order to boost their sales of same. Its first name was "SwitcherCAD." However, they did change their SPICE "envelope" to allow drawing-listing-analyzing-simulating any kind of discrete- component circuit. Their schematic-drawing and auto-netlist creation is not one of intrinsic beauty but it works just as good as those pay-for-everything SPICE packages. It can be used as an ARRL Radio Designer replacement or equivalent. At no cost. Licensed amateurs as a whole in the US has been declining for 3+ years now. Not really any big decline. Newcomers (never before licensed) are filling in the gaps left by expirations. Check it out on www.hamdata.com, right on the home page. The "big drop-off" is largely being replaced. While we can discuss the reason that it happened - it did happen. I suspect that we will get to that earlier level at some point. Perhaps the old Tech license was a bit of a dead end? I don't think so. The "old" Technician class which became "Technician Plus" in 1991 did serve its purpose in 1990 and before. Of course the Tech Plus was no longer issued as of 2000, but then neither were Advanced and Novice. The Novice class license was conceived, lobbied-for by those who thought U.S. Amateur Radio would always have morse code as it epitome of skills and all should "do their time" in the "apprenticeship" of old-style operating as if amateur radio was a union, guild or special craft occupation. Of course it wasn't, despite all the urging and PR to "begin at the beginning and work, work, work your way up" by some. :-( The "old" Tech and the new Tech were specifically banished from HF until July of 2003 and the changes to S25 (nearly entire re-write) at WRC-03. They served their original purpose well enough, I think, which was to open a class of license for true experimenters. What really happened was that the Techs (both kinds) found they could be IN amateur radio and it wasn't burdened by all the old morse code requirements (de jure and de facto). Even with the antipathy of old-timers ("shack on a belt" type of remarks, etc.) the Techs did their own thing on VHF-UHF and found it as much or more fun than what they "were supposed to do" on HF. It should be fairly obvious that Techs (both kinds) made up very, very close to half of all licensees in U.S. amateur radio prior to 23 February 2007. It was the "entry" class for so many and many enjoyed that so much they didn't all switch to other classes. All that while the original "entry" class of Novice licensees were dwindling. However, in the periodicals that survive there continue to be new ham radio models being made and advertised, certain models promoted with extras (such as Icom). Antenna makers are still "up" and so are the hundreds of smaller businesses selling peripheral equipment and add-ons. I'd say that the interest in amateur radio is increasing, not the opposite. Agreed. Certainly it is in my area. There are some who would dispute the success we are having in our area (we are running at a 2+ percent increase after factoring in attrition for well over a year now) as a fluke. I might respectfully suggest a new approach. 8^) In the last week I've received new catalogs from AES, HRO, Texas Towers, MFJ in the mail. It's either a grand conspiracy of marketing or just a lot of ham goodies being made and sold. :-) There might even be a trend towards more newcomers entering than ever before, some hints of that already shown in numbers on www.hamdata.com. The new hams in our area are good people, and are becoming active and well mannered hams. I didn't know that new folks were "ill-mannerred." I've heard a lot of old folks say they were but, as one of the 'old folk' I have yet to see that for myself. :-) 73, Len AF6AY |
#58
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Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
On Apr 26, 11:27�pm, Mike Coslo wrote:
wrote grou ps.com: Reg Edwards' (G4FGQ) whole selection of design software Yoiks! I can't believe that I forgot Reg (at least his software) Thanks for that addition, Jim He's just one example that came to mind. There are lots more. G4FON's Morse Code learning software, to name just one of many Older versions of Spectrogram, an audio spectrum analyzer software with many uses in the ham shack. Several free online Amateur Radio practice test websites All good additions, Jim Thanks. And they're just a drop in the bucket. The "big drop-off" is largely being replaced. While we ca n discuss the reason that it happened - it did happen. I suspect that we will get to that earlier level at some point. One factor I have not seem mentioned recently is the effect of rules changes other than license test requirements on the number of hams. For example, in the USA, the license term was doubled from 5 to 10 years back in 1984, and the 'grace period' doubled from one to two years. This is truly not an exact science! The licencing qualifi cations and expiry conditions have been quite dynamic. Exactly. Another rules change that effects expirations is the vanity callsign program. Unlike address changes, upgrades, etc., getting a vanity call also generates a renewal. This may profoundly affect the distribution of license expiration dates. With the license term at ten years and the grace period at two years, it can take a pretty long time for the actual loss of amateurs to show up in the totals. Indeed. While I would presonally like my license to remai n in effect forever without renewal,(hehe) a shorter renewal cycle would be of great utility in keeping track of how we are doing in retention of Hams. There was a time when you could get a renewal almost any time in the license term if some other change was happening, like an upgrade or an address change. From 1967 to 1983, even though the license term was 5 years, I only renewed once, because of all the upgrades and address changes I made in that time. It is also important to know the details of what is included in the numbers being cited. It is a problem with all statistics/numbers. Yes, but too often those making a statement can neglect to note what is included in their totals. What I have noticed in my area is that the upgrades from Tech to General has been mostly been by recently licensed Techs. That says (to me) that a lot of newer folks are more interestd in upgrading. I would venture that there is not much use in trying to pick up anything from our numbers except from long term statistics (in spite of my yapping about the success we are having in my area). on a weekly basis, nothing real can be determined. The success in your area is simply one data point you have observed. You're not saying it's a widespread trend, just that it's what you have observed. The day-to-day variations are so large that it will clearly be some time before a long term trend is clear. IMHO, what we're really seeing is a whole bunch of trends overlapping each other. The new hams in our area are good people, and are becoming active and well mannered hams. IMHO, that's more important than how many. When it all boils down, that is what is important. Despite all the concerns voiced by various segemnts of the Amateur community, what we need are good, active people. Agreed. 73 de Jim, N2EY |
#59
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Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
On Apr 26, 5:49?am, wrote:
Looking back over the past decade or so, I see the following trends: - The number of US hams grew in the early 1990s but began a slow decline in the late 1990s. - The number of US hams grew in the early 2000s (2000-2003, after the rules changes that went into effect in April 2000) but the growth was not sustained and began a slow decline in the mid-2003 - The recent changes (Feb 2007) appear to have stopped the decline in the short term. - Both the 2000 and 2007 rules changes had the effect of a far greater number of existing hams upgrading than new hams joining. Was there really any expectation to the contrary, Jim? There's not been ten cents worth of promotion of the new licenure requirements in the non-Amateur press, ie: Pop Science, Pop Mechanics, etc etc etc... WE know all albout the changes...No one else does, and even if the ARRL, CQ, W5YI, etc started the full court press I seriously doubt we'd see more than that same brief surge as you noteed above....Oh, to be sure there's going to be a handful of the 11 meter DX crowd that decides to "go legal", but that's still a very samll percentage. Nope...I think we're getting all the "influx" now that we will. I've said it before and here it is again...Amateur Radio does NOT need "big numbers"...We need to have QUALITY licensees...That means solid skills and a NON-COMPROMISED question pool like we have today. 73 Steve, K4YZ |
#60
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Before and After Cessation of Code Testing
On May 2, 9:52�pm, wrote:
On Apr 26, 5:49?am, wrote: Looking back over the past decade or so, I see the following trends: - The number of US hams grew in the early 1990s but began a slow decline in the late 1990s. - The number of US hams grew in the early 2000s (2000-2003, after the rules changes that went into effect in April 2000) but the growth was not sustained and began a slow decline in the mid-2003 - The recent changes (Feb 2007) appear to have stopped the decline in the short term. - Both the 2000 and 2007 rules changes had the effect of a far greater number of existing hams upgrading than new hams joining. Was there really any expectation to the contrary, Jim? One of the reasons given by those proposing the changes was to insure the growth and survival of amateur radio in the 21st century. There's not been ten cents worth of promotion of the new licenure requirements in the non-Amateur press, ie: Pop Science, Pop Mechanics, etc etc etc... Do those mags even exist anymore? What's their circulation? WE know all albout the changes...No one else does, and even if the ARRL, CQ, W5YI, etc started the full court press I seriously doubt we'd see more than that same brief surge as you noteed above....Oh, to be sure there's going to be a handful of the 11 meter DX crowd that decides to "go legal", but that's still a very samll percentage. So how do we get the word out? Nope...I think we're getting all the "influx" now that we will. I've said it before and here it is again...Amateur Radio does NOT need "big numbers"...We need to have QUALITY licensees.. Why can't we have both? That means solid skills and a NON-COMPROMISED question pool like we have today. I'm not sure what you mean by "non-compromised". If it means a secret test, forget it. The only way we'd ever get secret tests again would be for FCC to take over the process, and they're just not going to do that. And even if FCC could somehow be convinced to take over the whole test preparation and administration process, somebody could just repeat Dick Bash's tricks of 30+ years ago, and the tests wouldn't stay secret. The one thing that *can* be done is to make the pools so big that it's easier to learn the material than to learn the test. Anyone can submit questions to the QPC. 73 de Jim, N2EY. |
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