wrote in message
s.com...
On Jun 28, 8:34?pm, "Dee Flint" wrote:
So far an "effective change" of 0% but we'll see what the rest of the
year
brings.

We're only 1/3 of the way through the first year, though. And the
numbers have taken ups and downs all over the place.

A couple of things to remember when looking at these numbers:

- Any time a rules change is being considered, or is pending, there
will probably be an effect on licensing behavior. Just like the
announcement of an upcoming sale at a store. If the pending change
makes it easier to get a license, people who were considering getting
that license may simply wait until the change occurs. I suspect that
more than a few people who were planning to get amateur licenses, or
to upgrade, before February 23, 2007 decided to wait until after the
rules change.


Absolutely. We had a test session scheduled for February 23rd and had a
monster turnout. All but two were for upgrades.

- News like the rules change travels slowly, and its effects even
slower.


Yes I still get people asking about the General credit for the pre-March,
1987 Tech and that has been in effect for 7 years now.

- While the rules changes have not resulted in steady new growth, it
appears to me that the decline has at least slowed, and probably
stopped.


That may be only temporary though. It will probably take more than a year
to see if that is real or temporary. Yes it will be interesting to see the
results on the one year anniversary.

My prediction, IIRC, was that in the first year we would see anywhere
from 0 to +1% growth in the total number of currently licensed US
hams.

73 de Jim, N2EY


Well I predicted -1% to +1%.

By the way, your "official guess" on the list I was running was +1% to +2%.
Would you like to change it or just stand on your existing numbers?

Here's the list as it stands right now:

N8UZE: 1% less to 1% more
N2EY: 1% more to 2% more
KH6HZ: 1% less to 0% change
N3KIP: 2% more to 6% more
KH6O: 6% more to 10% more
KK6J: 12% more to 14% more
KC2HMZ: 5% more
K8BSG: 2% to 3% more --- Added 02/18/06

Dee, N8UZE