Steve Bonine wrote in
:

AF6AY wrote:

The future of USA amateur radio belongs to the newcomers of now.
I think that the relatively minor number of existing licensees who
ARE doing things for newcomers, such as Steve Bonine described
in another thread here, are an EXCELLENT example of what should
be done...positive steps, proactive steps to help, not hinder
newcomers.

I appreciate the kind words, Len, but I think that we all need to
realize that the ham radio hobby as we know it is changing. Of
course, that's no different than at any time in the past, since ham
radio today is different in many respects than ham radio of previous
generations. Like any other technology-driven activity, things have
changed and will continue to change. Can you imagine how amazed
someone from the spark-gap era would be if they were transported into
today's world with its tiny multi-function DC-to-light transceivers?
[And just as if to underscore how common that technology has become,
when I misspelled "transceiver", my email client underlined it for me,
and provided the correct spelling.]

There is, however, an aspect of change these days that is different
than what the hobby has ever experienced, and it's related to the
topic of this thread. The reality is that during the next decades the
number of active ham radio operators is going to decrease. We can
massage the numbers and wring our hands, but there are two absolute
facts that we cannot change: (1) The ham population is aging, (2) The
general population is less interested in ham radio than before.

Perhaps some are unwilling to accept the second statement as a fact,
but I think you're deluding yourself if so. Historically, most
recruits
into the hobby came from young folks, and this demographic is simply
not as fascinated by radio as in the past -- they have many
alternatives vying for their spare time.

In my area in the past two months, we have picked up dozens of new
amateurs who are in their late teens/early 20's. That is a surge,
normally we pick up a few per month. But we have no problems with
expecting plenety of QCWA members 25 years from now.


We are getting more middle-aged and retiree
recruits than ever before, but even this population has many potential
ways to spend their spare time and ham radio has to compete.

We have been getting some oldsters too. The amount they spend per
capita is shocking at times, and their enthusiasm and willingness to
get involved is a great help.

The concept of the child getting their license is over rated IMO.
And these days and in this world, a child siomply could not get much
of the experience available. I remember when I was a young'un,
friends and mysel hiking up the hill to the fellow who had the cool
CB station with a tower and one of those directional three pronged
verticals on it. We spent hours with the gent, happy and safe.

These days if you are going to spend time with youth, you'd better
have a person with you and have passed one of the State Police
background investigations. An approved escort should be with the
child at all events.

I apologize for rambling, but the point is that I believe that the
number of active hams will decline significantly sometime in the next
10-20 years. I base this on what I see at hamfests (the ones that
haven't already folded), club meetings, and on the air -- almost all

I've been in the hamfest discussion, with older Hams, newer ones, and
I've come to the conclusion that a large part of the reason that
Hamfests go away is that they start too early and end WAY too early
also.

These days if you get to a Hamfest at 11:00 a.m. you might as well
forget even going. I've seen people starting the teardown process at
9:30.

Looking at getting to a Hamfest at say 6:30 a.m., there is a "circle of
opportunity" where a person decides just how early they are willing to
get up and travel. The closest decent sized Hamfests to here are
Timonium MD and Breezeshooters in Butler. Timonium is around 3 hours,
and Butler is a little over 2. So if I go to Timonium, I look forward to
getting up at 3 in the morning. Add an hour of sleep for Butler. THe
first couple years I was licensed, I would get up at that time - or more
likely just not go to sleep Saturday night.But I think hard about it now.
Those early start and end times severely limit the geography limits of
attendance.

On the other hand, I'm not sure that there's anything specific to be
done based on a belief that the number of active hams will decline.

Our local club is considering going from monthly meetings to
quarterly
meetings; I don't think that's a good idea but it's the sort of thing
that we may see more of in the years to come. Maybe if we recognize
the reality of a shrinking active-ham population, we can come up with
logical and realistic reactions.

Respectully, I'm not really sure that another opinion on this subject is
being unrealistic though.

We have been doing a 2 percent increase in the local ham population (not
counting that recent surge) when newcomers/attrition is factored in.
Club membership is up over 10 percent. (2006-07 stats)

I know that a lot of Hams are pessimistic about the future. We even have
a few club members who figure that the service will die out in a few
years, and have all kinds of reasons for that. A number of us decided
that we were going to prove them wrong, and at least for the moment we
are doing just that. We instituted a no wheedling and whining policy, a
welcoming attitude toward the new guys and gals, gentle encouragement to
upgrade, lots of social events - every other Saturday breakfasts,
Wednesday evening very informal dinners, every other Saturday club shack
get togethers, 4 big socials during the year. Contesting, trips to Ham
radio stores. Only problem is some of the XYL's are starting to complain
that their OM's need to spend a bit of time at home too. And we're all
having a blast.


- 73 de Mike N3LI -