On Feb 23, 7:56�pm, "D. Stussy"
wrote:

-------------------
Is there a point to presenting the statistics?

Actually, there are two:

The first is to provide an archive of the number of hams in the USA.
In the old days we had paper callbooks and CD-ROMs, but as time goes
on dependence on the online databases has become pretty standard.
That's fine for right-now information, but for historical purposes,
what do we do?

By posting the numbers, all it takes is a google search to see trends
and changes. As long as groups are archived, the data will be there
for all to see.

The second reason is to see the results of rules changes and other
influences. I've seen many claims from different people that "ham
radio is dying", "ham radio is growing", "there are X hams in the
USA", etc. By posting actual totals from the same source over a period
of years, the reality becomes apparent.

It appears that the Technician (w/ or w/o HF) class remains approximately
half of all licenses actively maintained, and relatively unchanged over 1
0
years.

Just under half. All Techs and Tech Pluses have had the same
privileges since Feb 2007; there is no difference anymore. Soon the
Tech Plus will completely disappear, as the last one expires in June.

�There are also Novice and Advanced licenses that are being renewe
d
without upgrading (about 10% of all licenses [11.3%]).

The number of Novices is dropping much more rapidly than the number of
Advanceds. In the past ten years the number of Novices has dropped to
about a third of what it was, but Advanceds are at about 60%.

Ten years ago we had a 6 license class system. Very soon we will have
5 classes, as the Tech Plus disappears. At some time in the future,
when the last Novice expires and isn't renewed, we'll have a 4 class
system.

But it may be a very long time before the last Advanced goes away,
giving us a 3 class system, judging by how slowly that class's license
numbers are declining.

�The average number
of Advanced and Extra classes is approximately constant, although there h
as
been a shift from one class to the other.

Which means a lot more US hams have full privileges.

The big gains have come in the General class.

Is there anything you want to conclude from all of this?

Lots of things can be concluded. Perhaps the most important is the
general trend of how many hams we have in the USA, and is the number
growing or dropping?

Another purpose is to see how true various predictions have turned out
to be. It turns out that predictions of rapid growth and rapid decline
were both untrue.

Looking back, ten years ago there were about 675,000 US amateurs. From
2000 to 2003, our numbers grew to about 686,000, then from 2003 to
2007 declined to about 655,000. Since 2007 we've gained over 30,000,
and now are almost back to the 2003 peak. If the growth continues,
we'll soon have a new all-time high.

Growth is good - we cannot expect to keep our bands and privileges
with a constantly declining number of hams. But the growth hasn't kept
up with the growth rate of the US population. And despite all the
changes in license requirements and privileges, the growth hasn't been
anything close to what it was in decades such as the 1930s, 1950s,
1970s and 1980s.

73 de Jim, N2EY